966T 2 6CH-T^DO;D&Q8FS'PA6T] TAF! 2.1 T6T`)`8 QBGU 6CH-T QB9BS_?# ]:8 QBGU HQ5U&@XD# Q QB9BS_?#6T]:DTA8^:D&a:8P8a3 BP9LS67S=D 'Q :''PA`3]:84PF QJ83 ]) 8 BQAa3 BI8SA@ BQ#QIS8# Q ]:84 8 !2O6T]BQa@ IQ@QB56BQ9a3 F Q:''PA`3@TLS67S=D4 L QB9BS_?#@Q 6TIW3 ^DO5 QJQ ]BQ6BQ9F Q:''PA`3@TLS67S=D@Q 6TIW3'O 6Q`J ]BQIQ@QB5#F9#W@ QB]:DTA8^:D&!L&@XD# Q QB9BS_?#a3 LA Q&@T:BOIS67S?Q= (=BLW@Q F&HQ, 2547) L86GFBBH6T 1930 8P ]GBH/GQI4B#DQIIS#a3 @W &#FQ@I8`'a:`8]BVL&#FQ@IP@=P87 BOJF Q& QB9BS_?#^DOLP4BQ3L ]9TA @T John Maynard Keynes ]:8#8^B 6T`J #FQ@]J58F Q QB 9BS_?#;P8^:B4Q@BQAa3 ]:8JDP ^DO QB]=S@!U8!L& QB9BS_?#4Q@BQAa3 8P8]=S@!U8`8'Q8F8 6T8 LA F Q QB]=S@!U8!L&BQAa3 ^8F#S3!L& John Maynard Keynes `8]BVL& QB9BS_?#a3 BP9 QB !AQA#FQ@]=S@]4S@_3A8P ]GBH/GQI4BBW 8JDP&c ^DOa3 ]:86TBX 'P `88Q@!L& I@@4S/Q8BQAa3 IP@9XB2 (the absolute income hypothesis) *U&@TBQ /Q8@Q'Q ^8F#FQ@#S3!L& John Maynard Keynes `8: #.G. 1936 QB=P18Q6CH-T QB9BS_?#a3 BO6Q P8@QLA Q&4 L]8VL& ^DOAP&`J #FQ@IQ#P, P9BQAa3 F Q]:84PF QJ83 QB`) ' QA`8 QBLW:_?#9BS_?# 6CH-T QB9BS_?#!L& John Maynard Keynes (:BO=P87 ]GF48P86, 2537) a3 ^ I@@4S/Q8BQAa3 ]:BTA9]6TA9 (the relative income hypothesis) ]I8L_3A James Duesenberry `8: #.G. 1949 I@@4S/Q8BQAa3 5QFB (the permanent income hypothesis) ]I8L_3A Milton Friedman `8: #.G. 1957 I@@4S/Q8FP.'P B)TFS4 (life cycle hypothesis) ]I8L_3A Albert Ando and Franco Modigliani `8: #.G. 1963 :''PA6T@T;D4 LBQA' QA]=VL QB9BS_?#!L&=8P &Q878Q#QB=Q2S)A `8]!4LQ]?L]@VL& 'P&JFP3DQ=X8 _3A=V8/Q86PFa:@T^8F QBGU HQ] TAF P96CH-T QB9BS_?#LA X 4 6CH- T #VL 7 2.1.1 6CH-T QB9BS#TIP@=P7 Pa3 IP@X2 (Absolute Income Theory of Consumption) John Maynard Keynes (1936)a3 ]!TA86CH-T QB9BS_?#^99BQAa3 IP@9XB2 _3AL7S9QA =C4S BB@ QB9BS_?#_3AIBW:IQBOIQ#P,a3 F Q 'Q QBFS]#BQOJ4Q@ -'S4FS6AQ!P8=V8/Q89F P9 QBGU HQ! L]65''BS&] TAF P97BB@)Q4S!L&@8WHA =9F Q_3A6PFa:9W##D'O9BS_?#]=S@!U8 4 L]@VLBQAa3 ]=S@!U8 ^4 QB9BS_?#6T]=S@!U88P8'O8 LA F QBQAa3 6T]=S@!U8 ^DOAP&# 8=9LT F Q]@VL BO3P9BQAa3 !L&9W##DIX&!U8 9W##D'O9BS_?#`8IP3I F86T@T4 LBQAa3 D3D& 8P8#VL# Q#FQ@_8 @ ]LTA&](DTA`8 QB9BS_?# (APC) D3D& ^4 `86Q&4B& P8! Q@5 QBO3P9BQAa3 4QD& 9W##D DP9'O 9BS_?#`8IP3I F86T@T4 LBQAa3 IX& JBVL# Q APC IX& ]J4W;D6T]:8]) 88T]=BQO 2 BO3P9BQAa3 4Q8P8 QB'P3JQ:''PA=V8/Q86T'Q]:84 L QB3QB&)TFS4!L&48]L&^DO#BL9#BPFA L@@T#FQ@IQ#P,^DO 'Q]:8]J8VL F Q QBLL@ ^I3&F Q9W##D'OLL@@Q !U8 54 L]@VL4PF]L&^DO#BL9#BPF@T:''PA=V8/Q8 a3 BP9 QB9Q9P3LA Q&]=TA&=L^D F]6 Q8P8 4 L@Q8P ]GBH/GQI4B DW @]#8Ia3 8Q@QFS]#BQOJ!AQA#FQ@LL a:]=VLL7S9QA>& )P8 QB9BS_?#BOAOIP8^DOBOAOAQF ]) 8 Arthur Smithies (1945) a3 L7S9QAF Q ]I 8>& )P8 QB9BS_?# ]DVL8!U8a:6P&]I 8a3 3 FA]J4W;DJDQA:BO QB ]J4W;DJ8U&LQ'] S3'Q QBL=A=!L&:BO)Q)8 'Q )896@QIX ]@VL& _3AI?Q=^F3D L@!L&]@VL&6Q`J #86TLAX `8]@VL&@TIP3I F8 QB9BS_?#]@VL ]:BTA9]6TA9 P9BQAa3 IX& F Q#86TLQGPA`8)896 3P&8P8 QBL=A=!L&;X 9BS_?#'Q )896@QIX 4PF ]@VL&'U&@T^8F_8 @`8 QB]=S@:BS@Q2 QB9BS_?#]:8I F8BF@ 6P&c 6TBQAa3 !L&:BO)Q)8a@ a3 ]=S@!U8^@ ^4 8 LA QB_%H2Q#&]:8LT ]J4W;D6T BO4W 8`J @T QB9BS_?#@Q !U8 6Q`J >& )P8 QB 9BS_?#]DVL8IX&!U8 James Tobin (1951) @T#FQ@]J58F Q QB6T]I 8>& )P8 QB9BS_?#`8BOAOIP8]DVL8IX&!U8 ]@VL]FDQ; Q8a: 5]=BQOF Q:BO]6G)Q4S@TIS86BP=A@Q !U8 #FQ@J@QA!L&#QF Q IS86BP=A (wealth) !L& James Tobin 'Q P3](=QOIS86BP=A6T@TI?Q=#D L&IX& (liquid assets) ]) 8 ]&S8I3 ]&S8<Q 78Q#QB ^DO=P879P4B]&S8<Q ]:84 8 5 QIS86BP=AI?Q=#D L&]JD Q8T@T@XD# QIX&!U8A L@6Q`J :BO)Q)89BS_?#@Q !U8 ^4 6P&8T:''PALV8c 4 L&a@ ]:DTA8^:D& `8]@VLIS86BP=A^DOBQAa3 4 Q& IX&!U8 6Q`J >& )P8 QB9BS_?#]DVL8IX&!U8 ^DO]:8]J4W;D]=TA&=L6T'OL7S9QAF Q6Qa@ APC 'U&@T # Q# L8! Q&#&6T]@VL]FDQ; Q8a: ?QA`4 I@@4S/Q8BQAa3 IP@9XB28P8 QB9BS_?#5X QJ83_3ABQAa3 6T;X 9BS_?#a3 BP9 `8^4 DO) F&]FDQ 3P&8P8#FQ@IP@=P87=V8/Q8BOJF Q& QB9BS_?#^DOBQAa3 4Q@6CH-T8T'U&]:8 8 #FQ@IP@=P87`8BOAOIP8 8PAJ8U&! LIBW:!L&I@@4S/Q8BQAa3 IP@9XB24B& P9#W2I@9P4S!L&]I 8 >& )P8 QB9BS_?#`8BOAOIP8 8P8#VL # Q APC 'OD3D&]@VLBQAa3 IX&!U8 ^4 a@ 4B& P9#W2I@9P4S !L&>& )P8 QB9BS_?#BOAOAQF ]=BQO`8BOAOAQF8P8 APC ] VL9'O@T# Q#&6TJBVL]=S@IX&!U8 ]D5 8 LA]6 Q8P8 8P ]GBH/GQI4B]#8Ia3 `J ]J4W;DJDQALA Q&6TIQ@QB58Q@QL7S9QA:BQ . QB2 ]) 88Ta3 ]) 8 ) ]@VL:BO)Q)8@T#FQ@BQBFA@Q !U8 'O@T^8F_8 @`) ' QA`8 QB9BS_?#`8IP3I F86T IX&!U8 F Q]3S@`86W BO3P9BQAa3 8P8#VL ]I 8>& )P8 QB9BS_?#'O]DVL8IX&!U8 !) `8BOAOAQF8P8 'O@T QBL=A=!L&:BO)Q)8'Q )896]! Q@QLAX `8]@VL& ^DO _3A6PFa:^D F^8F_8 @ QB9BS_?#!L&#8`8]@VL&@P IX& F Q#8`8)896 3P&8P8 QB ]#DVL8A QA!L&:BO)Q B'U&6Q`J ]I 8>& )P8 QB9BS_?#]DVL8IX&!U8 #) `8BOAOAQF8P8 IP3I F8!L&#8IX&LQAW`8:BO)Q B@T@Q !U8 ^DO]8VL&'Q QB 9BS_?#4 L9W##D!L& DW @#8`8FPA8TD3D&) Q F QBQAa3 4 L9W##D 3P&8P8]I 8>& )P8 QB9BS_?#'U&@T^8F_8 @6T'O]DVL8IX&!U8 ]@VL'Q8F8#8`8 DW @;X IX&LQAW8Ta3 DQA]:8IP3I F86TIX&!U8!L&:BO)Q B6P&:BO]6G &) `8BOAOAQF8P8 a3 @TIS8# QLW:_?#9BS_?#] S3!U8@Q @QA ^DO@T'Q8F8@Q !U86W 6 T *U&:BO)Q B`8/Q8O;X 9BS_?#a3 BP9^B& BO4W 8'Q QB_%H2QIS8# QF Q IS8# Q6T] S3 `J@ 8P8]:8IS8# Q6T'Q]:8`8 QB3QB&)TFS4 3P&8P8 >& )P8 QB9BS_?#'U&]DVL8IX&!U8 :''PA]JD Q8TD F8^D F^4 6Q`J >& )P8 QB9BS_?#]DVL8IX&!U86P&IS8 QB9BS_?#6T]=S@!U8 4Q@]J4W;D3P& D QF8T 6Q`J #FQ@IP@=P87BOJF Q&BQAa3 ^DO QB9BS_?#]:8IP3I F86T# L8! Q&'O #&6 T ^@ F QBQAa3 'O]=S@IX&!U8]@VL]FDQ; Q8a: 54Q@ (O8P8 ]BQIQ@QB58Q@Q]!TA8#FQ@IP@=P87BOJF Q& QB9BS_?# ^DOBQAa3 `8BX:!L& I@ QB QB9BS_?#BOAOIP8 a3 3P&8 T C = a + bY ; a>0 ^DO 0<b<1 _3A6 T C = QB9BS_?#6T^6 'BS& (real consumption expenditure) Y = BQAa3 IW67S6T^6 'BS& (real disposable income) 9 =T 2.1 I@@4S/Q8BQAa3 IP@9XB2^DO>& )P8 QB9BS_?# 3P&8P8 'Q I@@4S/Q88T^I3&F Q QB9BS_?# P9BQAa3 @T#FQ@IP@=P87`86SG6Q&]3TAF P8 ^DO=C4S BB@ QB9BS_?#'O!U8LAX P9I F86Ta@ IP@=P87 P9BQAa3 ^DOI F86T]:8BQAa3 ]I 8DQ3 ]LTA&'Q * QAa:!FQ@T# Q#FQ@)P8]6 Q P9 b ]@VLBQAa3 ]=S@!U8 QB9BS_?#'O]=S@!U8 ^DO# Q#FQ@_8 @ ]LTA&](DTA`8 QB9BS_?# (APC) 'OD3D& _3A;X 9BS_?#6T@TBQAa3 4Q'O@T# Q`) ' QA`8 QB9BS_?#]:8 IP3I F86T@Q F QBQAa3 6Q`J @T# Q#FQ@_8 @]LTA&](DTA`8 QB9BS_?#IX& `8!2O6T;X 9BS_?#6T@T BQAa3 IX&'O@T# Q`) ' QA`8 QB9BS_?#]:8IP3I F86T8 LA F QBQAa3 6Q`J @T# Q#FQ@_8 @]LTA&](DTA `8 QB9BS_?#4Q 4 L@Q Simon Kutznets (1946) 8P ]GBH/GQI4B)QFBPI]*TA ^4 =Q8P LAX `8:BO]6G IJBP/L]@BS Q a3 GU HQ#FQ@IP@=P87BOJF Q& C ^DO Y !L&:BO]6GIJBP/L]@BS Q _3A`) ) F&]FDQ !L&! L@XD`8 QBGU HQ6TAQF8Q8!U8 =9F Q`8BOAOAQF#FQ@IP@=P87BOJF Q& C ^DO Y ]:8 #FQ@IP@=P876Ta3 IP3I F8 P8 (proportional relationship) _3A# Q APC _8 @]LTA&6T'O@T# Q#&6 T 8L 'Q 8T# Q APC 5_8 @]LTA&6T'O]6 Q P9 MPC 3 FA 'Q QB6T;D QBGU HQ!L& Kutznets !P3^A & P9^8F#FQ@#S3!L& Keynes 6Q`J 8P ]GBH/GQI4B#8LV8c JP8 DP9a:=P18Q6CH-T QB9BS_?#!U8`J@ ]=VL`J IQ@QB5L7S9QA #FQ@IP@=P87BOJF Q& C ^DO Y a3 3TAS&!U8 `8'Q8F88T8P ]GBH/GQI4B6T8SA@4Q@^8F#S3!L& Keynes 5a3 =AQAQ@JQ]J4W;D@QI8P9I8W8`J 6CH-T4Q@^8F#S3!L& Keynes AP&#&IL3#D L& P9 ;D QBGU HQ!L& Kutznets LAX _3A]J58F Q]I 8 QB9BS_?#!L& Keynes ]:8]I 8 QB9BS_?#BOAOIP8 `8!2O6T QBGU HQ!L& Kutznets ]:8]I 8 QB9BS_?#BOAOAQF6TDQ LL 'Q 'W3 Q]8S3 *U&`8 10 BOAOAQF8P8 ]I 8 QB9BS_?#BOAOIP8'O]#DVL84PFIX&!U8a:'Q 4Q^J8 &]3S@6P&]I 8 (shift) 6P&8TLQ' ]8VL&'Q IQ]J4WLV8c ]) 8 QB!AQA4PF!L&)W@)8]@VL& QB=P18Q6Q&3 Q8 QB;DS4^DO QB4DQ3 !L&IS8# Q`J@ c QBIX&!U8!L&'Q8F8^DOLQAW!L&:BO)Q B QB]'BS,]4S9_46Q&]GBH/ S'!L& :BO]6G6TIX&!U8 NDN QB]DVL8IX&!U8!L&]I 8 QB9BS_?#BOAOIP88T]L&6T6Q`J # Q APC a@ D3D& ^@ F QBO3P9BQAa3 'OIX&!U8 `8!2O]3TAF P8#FQ@IP@=P87BOJF Q& C ^DO Y 4Q@]I 8 QB9BS_?# BOAOAQF'O6Q`J # Q APC ]6 Q P9 MPC 3 FA ^I3&a3 3P&?Q=6 T 2.2 =T 2.2 ]I 8 QB9BS_?#BOAOIP8^DOBOAOAQF LC = ]I 8 QB9BS_?#BOAOAQF SC = ]I 8 QB9BS_?#BOAOIP8 2.1.2 6CH-T QB9BS#a3 :TA9]6T (Relative Income Theory of Consumption) Jame S.