© Malcolm Cerfonteyn, Flickr Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Ecosystem-based Adaptation for Rural Resilience (EbARR) in Tanzania Final Report Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Ecosystem-based Adaptation for Rural Resilience (EbARR) in Tanzania Final Report Client Vice President’s Office, Tanzania Authors Paul Manning (Independent Consultant, Team Leader) Dr. Jochen Statz (UNIQUE forestry and land use, Germany) Renuka Srinivasan (UNIQUE forestry and land use, Germany) Dr. Gordon Stanger (Independent Consultant) Demetrius Kweka (Independent Consultant) Abdallah Henku (Independent Consultant) Dr. Japhet Kashaigili (Independent Consultant) Date: 14.04.2020 UNIQUE | EbARR – Vulnerability Impact Assessment Final Report 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of tables ........................................................................................................................ 4 List of figures ....................................................................................................................... 5 List of abbreviations ............................................................................................................ 7 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 9 Background .............................................................................................................................. 9 Summary of climate projections and impacts ....................................................................... 10 Recommended EbA interventions ......................................................................................... 13 Ecosystem indicators.............................................................................................................. 18 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 20 1.1 Background ..................................................................................................................... 20 1.2 Scope .............................................................................................................................. 21 Thematic scope .................................................................................................... 21 Geographic scope ................................................................................................. 21 1.3 Main policies, legislations and strategies in the land use sector ................................... 23 2 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 25 2.1 Work plan overview ....................................................................................................... 25 2.2 Phase 1: Desk review ...................................................................................................... 27 2.3 Phase 2: Vulnerability and Impact Assessment .............................................................. 27 2.4 Phase 3: Finalization of EbA interventions ..................................................................... 32 3 Kaskazini-A, Unguja Island - Zanzibar ............................................................................. 33 3.1 Description of study district ........................................................................................... 33 3.2 Climate change projections for district .......................................................................... 37 Summary of Climate Change for Zanzibar ........................................................... 37 Rainfall and evapotranspiration ........................................................................... 40 Other projections ................................................................................................. 42 3.3 Risk maps and risk analysis for district ........................................................................... 44 3.4 Climate change impacts for the watershed in the context of current land use ............ 46 Forestry ................................................................................................................ 46 Biodiversity ........................................................................................................... 47 Water supply ........................................................................................................ 47 Agriculture ............................................................................................................ 48 Coastal resources ................................................................................................. 50 UNIQUE | Vulnerability and Impact Assessment, Tanzania 3.5 Ongoing adaptation efforts ............................................................................................ 50 3.6 Interventions .................................................................................................................. 53 4 Mvomero, Morogoro .................................................................................................... 55 4.1 Description of study district ........................................................................................... 55 4.2 Climate change projections for district .......................................................................... 57 Temperature ........................................................................................................ 57 Rainfall.................................................................................................................. 59 4.3 Risk maps and risk analysis for district ........................................................................... 62 4.4 Climate change impacts for the watershed in the context of current land use ............ 64 Forestry ................................................................................................................ 64 Rangeland............................................................................................................. 65 Biodiversity ........................................................................................................... 66 Water supply ........................................................................................................ 67 Agriculture ............................................................................................................ 69 4.5 Ongoing adaptation efforts ............................................................................................ 70 4.6 Interventions .................................................................................................................. 72 5 Simanjiro, Manyara....................................................................................................... 75 5.1 Description of study district ........................................................................................... 75 5.2 Climate change projections for district .......................................................................... 77 Temperature ........................................................................................................ 77 Rainfall and evapotranspiration ........................................................................... 79 5.3 Risk maps ........................................................................................................................ 81 5.4 Climate change impacts for the watershed in the context of current land use ............ 83 Forests and woodlands ........................................................................................ 83 Bushland, shrublands and rangelands ................................................................. 83 Biodiversity ........................................................................................................... 84 Water supply ........................................................................................................ 85 Agriculture ............................................................................................................ 87 5.5 Ongoing adaptation efforts ............................................................................................ 88 5.6 Interventions .................................................................................................................. 89 6 Kishapu, Shinyanga ....................................................................................................... 91 6.1 Description of study district ........................................................................................... 91 6.2 Climate change projections for district .......................................................................... 92 Temperature ........................................................................................................ 92 UNIQUE | EbARR – Vulnerability Impact Assessment Final Report 2 Rainfall.................................................................................................................. 94 6.3 Risk maps ........................................................................................................................ 97 6.4 Climate change impacts for the watershed in the context of current land use ............ 99 Forests and woodlands ........................................................................................ 99 Rangelands, bushlands and grasslands ................................................................ 99 Biodiversity