Asian Barometer Survey Wave 4 2014-2016 TECHNICAL REPORT (PHILIPPINES) By Social Weather Stations for Asian Barometer Survey Center for East Asia Democratic Studies National Taiwan University October 2014 Contact Information Social Weather Stations 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon City 1101 Philippines Tel: 632-924-4465 Fax: 632-920-2181 Email: [email protected] Asian Barometer Survey No.1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10617, Taiwan Center for East Asia Democratic Studies, College of Social Sciences National Taiwan University Tel: 886-2-3366-8456 Fax: 886-2-2365-7179 Email: [email protected] 1. BASIC INFORMATION 1.1 LOCATION The Asian Barometer 2014 Survey covered the entire Philippines, and had four major study areas: National Capital Region (NCR), Balance Luzon (outside NCR), Visayas and Mindanao. 1.2 POPULATION The population of the Philippines in 2010 was 92,097,000, with estimation at 100,096,496 as of July 1, 2014. Fifty percent of the population is urban, with the median age as 23.2 years.1 1.3 GOVERNMENT2 The Philippines is a democratic republic with the president as the head of the state and the government. It is a unitary state with the exception of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, which is largely free from the national government. The president is elected by popular vote for a single six-year term through the first-past-the-post rule. The bicameral Congress consists of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Members of the Senate are elected to a six-year term (limited to 2 consecutive terms). The Senate is composed of 24 senators who are elected at-large by the electorate. The members of the House of Representatives are elected to a three-year term (limited to 3 consecutive terms). In 2013, representatives were elected from 234 legislative districts (single-member district), and no more than 20% of the total number of representatives are elected through the party-list. Currently, there are 58 representatives elected through the party-list, which make the total number of the representatives to be 292. Voters vote for a single party-list organization and organizations that garner at least 2% of the total number of votes win one seat for every 2% up to a maximum of three representatives. Major parties are not allowed to participate in the party-list election. The current president is Benigno S. Aquino III, who was elected in June 2010. The latest legislative election was held in 2013, with the president’s party—the Liberal Party—controls 39% of the seats. 1 Worldometers, “Population”, http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/philippines-population/. Accessed on October 1, 2014. 2 Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines. Accessed on October 1, 2014. 1.4 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE3 The GDP per capital is USD 7,412 for the 2015 estimate. The annual economic growth is forecast to be 5.0% in 2015. The Philippines has high unequal income distribution, with the Gini coefficient as 43.0. 1.5 IMPORTANT POLITICAL AND SOCIAL EVENTS4 The Philippines has territorial disputes with China and Taiwan in the South China Sea. In May 2013, major diplomatic row erupts between Taiwan and the Philippines after Filipino coastguards killed a Taiwanese fisherman in disputed waters. In November 2013 Typhoon Haiyan swept across central areas of the country, leaving devastating and thousands of dead in its wake. A major international aid efforts was organized to help more than four million people affected. In March 2014, MILF rebel group signed a peace deal with the government that brought an end to one of Asia’s longest and deadliest conflicts. 2. TIMETABLE Activity Duration Preparation Questionnaire translation: Translate English 2014/05/21-06/16 Core Questionnaire into Filipino Questionnaire translation: Translate Filipino 2014/06/16-25 Questionnaire into Bicolano, Cebuano, Hiligaynon, Iluku, Tausug, and Waray Pre-fieldwork Preparations: Logistics, 2014/06/23-30 Questionnaire reproduction, Preparation of showcards Supervising Anchors’ (SA) Training (NCR) 2014/06/30 Field Interviewers’ Training 2014/07/2-3 Fieldwork National Capital Region (NCR) 2014/07/4-9 Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao 2014/07/4-9 Data Processing 3 Ibid. 4 BBC News. “Philippines profile-Timeline”, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-15581450. Accessed on October 1, 2014. Data entry and processing 2014/07/14-08/8 Data cleaning 2014/08/8-28 Submission of Philippine data for checking 2014/08/29 3. RESPONDENTS 3.1 CRITERIA OF SELECTING RESPONDENTS Data was gathered through face-to-face interviews of voting-age Filipino adults aged 18 years old and above. The survey asked a host of questions about political, social and economic issues, some undertaken as regular indicators monitored over time and others reflective of current concerns. It also obtained information and background characteristics about the household and family members. The questionnaire was administered thru paper and pencil interviews (PAPI). 3.2 RESEARCH ETHNICAL REVIEW In the Philippines there is no need to obtain any permission for any research type. For the ABS IV we did not need to go through the review process in the Philippines. However, before the beginning of interview process, the interviewers informed all interviewees that ‘we will not record your name or identifying information about you on the questionnaire. So no one will know who gave which answers to our questions. There is no risk to you in participating in the survey. There is also no benefit to you in participating in the survey. But if you answer our questions, you will help us understand how the public feels about issues facing the country today. Your participation in the survey is voluntary. If there are any questions you don't want to answer you don't have to answer them. And you can stop participating in the survey at any time. ..’ 4. SAMPLING PROCESS AND METHODOLOGY 4.1 SAMPLING SIZES AND ERROR MARGINS An indicator of data quality is the standard error of the estimate, on which the margin for sampling error is based. As survey statistics are mostly proportions, the key measure of data precision is the standard error of a proportion taken from a sample. It is computed as follows: _+ Z * p(1-p) n Where Z, at 95% confidence level is 1.96; p is the sample proportion estimate and n is the sample size. The overall sample size of 1,200 voting-age adults gives a maximum error margin of ± 2.83% at the 95% confidence level, assuming a simple random sampling design. The sampling error is at its highest when the true proportion being estimated is close to 50%. The following approximate 95%-confidence margins for sampling error should be made when aggregating data at various levels: Region Sample Size Error margin Philippines 1,200 ±3% National Capital Region 300 ±6% Balance Luzon 300 ±6% Visayas 300 ±6% Mindanao 300 ±6% However, somewhat higher error margins should be expected since multi-stage cluster sampling was used; this design-effect is not readily measurable through established statistical software. 4.2 SAMPLING SCHEME The Philippines was divided into four study areas: National Capital Region (NCR), Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (See Figure 1. Map of the Philippines). Multi-stage probability sampling was used in the selection of sample spots. The allocation of sample units in each stage was as follows: Sample Sample Region Spots Respondents Province Municipality National Capital -- 17 60 300 Region Balance Luzon 10 15 60 300 Visayas 5 15 60 300 Mindanao 6 15 60 300 Total 21 62 240 1200 4.2.1 FIRST STAGE-SELECTION OF PSU 4.2.1.1 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NRC) For NCR’s first stage, 60 barangays were distributed among the 17 NCR cities and municipalities in such a way that each city/municipality was assigned a number of barangays that was roughly proportional to its population size. An additional provision was that each municipality must receive at least one barangay. Barangays were then selected from within each municipality with probability proportional to size (PPS). See Figure 2 for an illustration of the sampling scheme for NCR. 4.2.1.2 OUTSIDE OF THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION: BALANCE LUZON, VISAYAS, MINDANAO Balance Luzon was divided into 6 regions: Region I, CAR+Region II, Region III, Region IV-A, Region IV-B and Region V; Visayas into 3 regions: Region VI, Region VII and Region VIII; and Mindanao into 6 regions; Region IX, Region X, Caraga, Region XI, Region XII and ARMM. See Figure 3 for an illustrative example of the sampling scheme for Balance Luzon. Using probability proportional to population size (PPS) of the region, the allocation of 10 provinces in Luzon, 5 in Visayas and 6 in Mindanao were as follows: Luzon Visayas Mindanao Region I 1 Region VI 2 Region IX 1 CAR+Region Region X 1 Region VIII 2 1 II Region III 3 Region VIII 1 Caraga 1 Region IV-A 3 Region XI 1 Region IV-B 1 Region XII 1 Region V 1 ARMM 1 Total 10 5 6 The non-quota provinces were selected without replacement using probability proportional to their remainders. The remainders are fractions derived when the proportion of the regions (based on their respective study area) are multiplied by 10 for Luzon, and 5 for Visayas and 6 for Mindanao. For instance, if 1.28 is obtained for Region I, then 1 province is assigned to this region and remaining fraction of 0.28 is included for the allocation of the non-quota province. Given the target number of provinces for each region, sample provinces were then selected by PPS, without replacement. An additional provision is that each region must receive at least one province.