<p><strong>CEDAR HILL </strong></p><p><strong>MARKET STUDY 2020 </strong></p><p><strong>CEDAR HILL MARKET STUDY 2020 </strong></p><p><strong>Prepared for: </strong></p><p><strong>Cedar Hill EDC </strong></p><p>285 Uptown Blvd, Bldg 100 Cedar Hill, Texas 75104 </p><p>November 2020 Prepared by: </p><p>1001 S. Dairy Ashford, Suite 450 <br>Houston, TX 77077 <br>(713) 465-8866 <a href="/goto?url=http://www.cdsmr.com" target="_blank">www.cdsmr.com </a></p><p><strong>Cedar Hill Market Study </strong></p><p><strong>TABLE OF CONTENTS </strong></p><p><strong>Table of Contents............................................................................................................................... i </strong></p><p>CDS Company Bio..........................................................................................................................................1 The Purpose of this Study .............................................................................................................................1 </p><p><strong>Executive Summary............................................................................................................................2 </strong></p><p>Demographic and Economic .........................................................................................................................2 </p><p><em>Demographic Characteristics..................................................................................................................................2 Economic Profile .....................................................................................................................................................3 </em></p><p>Market Uses..................................................................................................................................................4 </p><p><em>Office Market..........................................................................................................................................................4 Industrial Marke t . ...................................................................................................................................................5 Retail Market..........................................................................................................................................................6 Multifamily Market.................................................................................................................................................7 For-Sale Housing Marke t . .......................................................................................................................................7 Hospitality Market..................................................................................................................................................9 Downtown / Town Center Development ..............................................................................................................10 </em></p><p><strong>Demographic and Economic Analysis................................................................................................12 </strong></p><p>Population and Households........................................................................................................................12 Economy and Employment.........................................................................................................................21 </p><p><em>Average Wages.....................................................................................................................................................23 Total Wages..........................................................................................................................................................25 Unemployment Rate.............................................................................................................................................27 Major Regional Employers....................................................................................................................................27 </em></p><p>Notable Upcoming Commercial Developments .........................................................................................31 </p><p><em>Adaptive Reuse – Village Crossing – Phillips Lumber Project................................................................................31 Hillwood Industrial Development .........................................................................................................................33 Walton Masterplanned Communit y . ....................................................................................................................34 </em></p><p><strong>Office Market ..................................................................................................................................35 </strong></p><p>DFW Office Market .....................................................................................................................................35 Southwest Dallas Submarket ......................................................................................................................37 CMA Office Market .....................................................................................................................................38 </p><p><em>Performance Trends .............................................................................................................................................38 Supply 39 </em></p><p>Cedar Hill Office Market..............................................................................................................................50 </p><p><em>Performance Trends .............................................................................................................................................50 Cedar Hill Office Supply ........................................................................................................................................51 Interview with Interra Capital (owner) – 610 Uptown..........................................................................................54 Examples of Cedar Hill Office................................................................................................................................55 </em></p><p>Medical Office CMA ....................................................................................................................................56 </p><p><em>CMA Medical Office Supply ..................................................................................................................................57 </em></p><p>i</p><p><strong>Cedar Hill Market Study </strong></p><p><em>Examples of CMA Medical Office..........................................................................................................................58 </em></p><p>Potential Demand – Office Space ...............................................................................................................59 </p><p><em>Cedar Hill Absorption............................................................................................................................................60 </em></p><p><strong>Industrial Market.............................................................................................................................61 </strong></p><p>Metro Area Industrial Market.....................................................................................................................61 Southwest Dallas/US 67 Submarket ...........................................................................................................62 CMA Industrial Market................................................................................................................................63 </p><p><em>Performance Trends .............................................................................................................................................63 CMA Supply...........................................................................................................................................................65 Interviews with CMA Industrial Developers..........................................................................................................85 Interviews with CMA Industrial Brokers ...............................................................................................................85 </em></p><p>Cedar Hill Industrial Market........................................................................................................................86 </p><p><em>Market Performance ............................................................................................................................................86 Supply 88 </em></p><p><strong>Retail Market...................................................................................................................................91 </strong></p><p>DFW Retail Market......................................................................................................................................91 Cedar Hill/Duncanville/DeSoto Submarket.................................................................................................93 Southwest Outlying Submarket ..................................................................................................................94 CMA Retail Market......................................................................................................................................95 </p><p><em>Performance Trends .............................................................................................................................................96 CMA Supply...........................................................................................................................................................96 Interview with Transwestern regarding Retail – Steve Williamso n . .....................................................................99 Interview with Monte Anderson, small-scale developer across southern Dallas..................................................99 Interview with Midlothian Founders Row Developer .........................................................................................100 </em></p><p>Cedar Hill Retail Market............................................................................................................................101 </p><p><em>Market Performance ..........................................................................................................................................101 Retail Suppl y . ......................................................................................................................................................104 Interview with Hillside Village ............................................................................................................................109 Other Examples of Cedar Hill Retail....................................................................................................................111 Effective Buying Power .......................................................................................................................................112 Cedar Hill Retail Sales Trends .............................................................................................................................112 Retail Surplus/Leakag e . ......................................................................................................................................113 Estimating Supportable Retail in the CMA and Cedar Hil l . .................................................................................113 Conclusions and findings include the following for the CMA:.............................................................................114 </em></p><p><strong>Multifamily Market........................................................................................................................115 </strong></p><p>DFW Multifamily Market ..........................................................................................................................115 </p><p><em>DFW Market – August, 2020 – Dallas Business Journal .....................................................................................116 </em></p><p>South Dallas County Submarket ...............................................................................................................117 CMA Multifamily Market ..........................................................................................................................118 </p><p><em>Performance Trends ...........................................................................................................................................118 CMA Multifamily Supply .....................................................................................................................................120 </em></p><p>ii </p><p><strong>Cedar Hill Market Study </strong></p><p><em>Interviews with CMA Multifamily : . .....................................................................................................................127 Examples of CMA Multifamily ............................................................................................................................128 </em></p><p>Cedar Hill Multifamily Market...................................................................................................................129 </p><p><em>Performance Trends ...........................................................................................................................................129 Supply ...............................................................................................................................................................131 New Construction ...............................................................................................................................................132 Examples of Cedar Hill Multifamily.....................................................................................................................134 Potential Demand – Multifamily Housing ..........................................................................................................135 Conclusions and Recommendations ...................................................................................................................136 </em></p><p><strong>For-Sale Housing Market................................................................................................................137 </strong></p><p>Cedar Hill Housing Characteristics............................................................................................................137 </p><p><em>Housing Value Profile .........................................................................................................................................138 Household Income by Tenure .............................................................................................................................139 </em></p><p>Existing Home Market...............................................................................................................................140 </p><p><em>Price Distribution ................................................................................................................................................141 For-Sale Condominium s . .....................................................................................................................................143 For-Sale Duplexes and Townhome s . ...................................................................................................................143 </em></p><p>New For-Sale Housing...............................................................................................................................143 Projected For-Sale Housing Demand ........................................................................................................150 </p><p><em>NCTCOG Projections ...........................................................................................................................................150 Planned New Development ................................................................................................................................151 Supportable Additional Single-family .................................................................................................................151 </em></p><p><strong>Hospitality Market.........................................................................................................................153 </strong></p><p>Texas Hotel Market...................................................................................................................................155 </p><p><em>CMA Hotel Performance Trends .........................................................................................................................156 CMA Under Construction Hotel s . ........................................................................................................................157 CMA Proposed and Planned Hotels ....................................................................................................................157 Interviews with CMA Hotels: ..............................................................................................................................157 </em></p><p>Cedar Hill Market (75104).........................................................................................................................158 </p><p><em>The Aloft Hotel and Convention Center ..............................................................................................................158 Cedar Hill Performance Trend s . ..........................................................................................................................158 CMA Conference Center Space ...........................................................................................................................159 Projected CMA Hotel Demand............................................................................................................................160 Hospitality Conclusions and Findings..................................................................................................................161 </em></p><p><strong>Downtown / Town Center Development ........................................................................................162 </strong></p><p>Commercial / Retail Uses..........................................................................................................................162 </p><p><em>Dining / Restaurants...........................................................................................................................................162 Consumer Market Changes, Challenges, and Opportunities ..............................................................................162 Nighttime, Culture, and Entertainmen t . .............................................................................................................163 Office Spac e . .......................................................................................................................................................164 Summary – Commercial / Retail Uses.................................................................................................................164 </em></p><p>iii </p><p><strong>Cedar Hill Market Study </strong></p><p>Residential Uses........................................................................................................................................165 </p><p><em>Rental Housing ...................................................................................................................................................165 For-Sale Housing.................................................................................................................................................165 </em></p><p><strong>Table of Tables and Figures </strong></p><p>Figure 1:&nbsp;Inner Suburban Demographic Area ............................................................................................12 Table 1:&nbsp;Population and Households, 2000 to 2025..................................................................................13 Table 2:&nbsp;Population by Age, 2020 ..............................................................................................................14 Table 3:&nbsp;Ethnic Makeup, 2020....................................................................................................................14 Table 4:&nbsp;Household Size and Type, 2020 ...................................................................................................15 Table 5:&nbsp;Household Type, 2020..................................................................................................................16 Table 6:&nbsp;Family Households and Poverty, 2020.........................................................................................17 Table 7:&nbsp;Educational Attainment, 2020 .....................................................................................................17 Table 8:&nbsp;Cedar Hill ISD K-12 School Enrollment, 2013 to 2020..................................................................18 Table 9:&nbsp;Household Income, 2020 .............................................................................................................18 Table 10:&nbsp;Household Income, 2025 ...........................................................................................................19 Table 11:&nbsp;Occupation of Residents, 2020 Age 16 and Older......................................................................20 Table 12:&nbsp;Cedar Hill Employment by Industry, 2010-2017 ........................................................................21 Table 13: Employment Change by Industry – Dallas County......................................................................22 Table 14: Employment Change by Industry – Ellis County .........................................................................23 Table 15: Average Weekly Wages by Industry – Dallas County..................................................................23 Table 16: Average Weekly Wages by Industry – Ellis County .....................................................................24 Table 17: Total Wages by Industry – Dallas County....................................................................................25 Table 18: Total Wages by Industry – Ellis County .......................................................................................26 Figure 2: Unemployment Rate, Dallas and Ellis Counties...........................................................................27 Table 19:&nbsp;Major North Texas Employers....................................................................................................28 Table 20:&nbsp;Major Cedar Hill Employers........................................................................................................28 Figure 3: Cedar Hill Job Inflow/Outflow, 2017............................................................................................29 Table 21: Cedar Hill LEHD Inflow/Outflow Job Counts, 2017 .....................................................................29 Figure 4: Where Cedar Hill Workers Live, LEHD 2017.................................................................................30 Table 22: Distance – Work to Home, 2017 .................................................................................................30 Table23: ZIP Codes Where Cedar Hill Workers Live, LEHD 2017 ................................................................31 Figure 5:&nbsp;Rendering of Village Crossing......................................................................................................32 Figure 6: Village Crossing Site Plan .............................................................................................................32 Figure 7:&nbsp;Hillwood Site Plan .......................................................................................................................33 Figure 8:&nbsp;Metro Area Office Market Vacancy and Absorption ..................................................................35 Table 24:&nbsp;Metro Area Office Market Summary..........................................................................................36 Figure 9:&nbsp;Southwest Dallas Submarket ......................................................................................................37 Table 25:&nbsp;Southwest Dallas Submarket Summary .....................................................................................37 Figure 10:&nbsp;Cedar Hill CMA Office Market...................................................................................................38 Figure 11:&nbsp;CMA Office Market Vacancy Trends .........................................................................................38 Figure 12:&nbsp;CMA Office Absorption, Deliveries and Vacancy ......................................................................39 Table 26: CMA Office Supply.......................................................................................................................39 Figure 13:&nbsp;Cedar Hill Office Properties.......................................................................................................50 </p>