ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update March 2011 1 Food insecurity in southern Ethiopia worsening; poor rains are anticipated • Following the poor October to December 2010 rains, southern Figure 1. Estimated food security outcomes, March and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral parts of the 2011 country face critical shortages of water and pasture. The anticipated below normal April to June 2011 rains are likely to further limit the availability of pastoral resources leading to increased humanitarian assistance needs in these areas. • Inadequate rains affected land preparation and planting of crops in the main belg producing areas of Amhara, Oromia, and SNNP Regions. The 2011 February to May rains have begun late and been erratically distributed. The rains have also affected the performance of sweet potatoes in the root crop dependent zones of SNNPR. Food insecurity among the poor and very poor households in these zones will be an emerging concern from April onwards. Source: FEWS NET and WFP • Despite an average to above‐average 2010 main season Figure 2. Estimated food security outcomes, April harvest, staple cereal prices have risen atypically over recent to June 2011 months. Price increases in the southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas are especially large. The late onset of the belg/gu/genna (February to May) rains and increased fuel prices are likely to add additional upward pressure on food prices. Updated food security outlook through June 2011 The 2010 meher harvest (October to January), stabilized food security, and thus many households in the eastern meher producing areas of eastern Tigray and Amhara, parts of the Rift Valley, and East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia regions, which are typical at‐risk areas, remain moderately food secure. Source: FEWS NET and WFP Exceptions include all woredas in Wag Hamira, Ebinat of South For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Gondar, Wegera and East Belesa of North Gondar (all in Amhara) Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale and several woredas in Bale zone of Oromia which have been affected by yellow rust and heavy rains during the 2010 kiremt season. Woredas such as Gursum, Meyu Muluke, Midega Tola, Kumbi, Chinaksan, Mieso and Hawi Gudina in East and West Haraghe zones of Oromia have been identified as hotspot areas by the Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit of Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Secretoriate due to critical water shortages for both human and livestock consumption, and household food deficits as a result of reduced meher harvest caused by hailstorms, flood and yellow rust. Similarly, localized areas in Eastern Tigray (Erob, Saesitsaeda Emba, Ganta Afeshum and Atsebi Wonberta) are also areas of concern given floods, hailstorms and dry spells during the 2010 kiremt season. The 2011 belg rains are late by at least a month in all of these areas, affecting land preparation for long This report provides an update to the January 2011 FEWS NET Food Security Outlook report which estimated food security conditions through June 2011. The next Outlook report will be released in April and will cover the April to September 2011 period. FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Ethiopia 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Tel: 251 11 662 0216 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Washington DC 20006 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net/ethiopia ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update March 2011 cycle meher crops. Food insecurity in the aforementioned areas is Figure 3. Percent of Normal Rainfall in belg expected to deteriorate beginning April leaving many poor and very growing areas: January 1 to March 10, 2011 poor households highly food insecure throughout the outlook period. Performance the belg rains through the first dekad of March has been much lower than normal (Figure 3). The major belg cropping areas in South and North Wollo zones of Amhara did not receive rains in February after many households planted crops following unseasonable January rains. This four to six week dry spell affected crop performance and field information suggests that replanting by middle and better‐off households has started in many areas following rains during the second half of March. However, seed shortages constrain poorer households from doing so. Given poor prospects for seasonal rainfall, June/July 2011 belg harvests are likely to be below normal. Even if average rains are Source: WFP/VAM Ethiopia received over the remainder of the season, the poor and very poor households in these zones will remain highly food insecure through June 2011 until the next harvest begin. In Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s Region, the belg rains have begun late, their performance to date is below average, and the showers which have been received were irregular and insufficient for crop development. However, farmers are heavily engaged in land preparation activities for planting in March and possibly in April. In some highland areas where precipitation has been relatively better, planting of short‐cycle maize has begun and planting of Irish potato is nearing completion. However, the performance of sweet potato, an important crop during the peak lean season months (March and June) in several zones of the region, is beginning to raise serious concerns. Normal sweet potato harvests are unlikely this year even if the belg rains improve in the coming weeks due to water stress in January and February. Thus, food security in sweet potato growing areas requires close monitoring, especially in zones such as Wolayita where a slight reduction of sweet potato harvest can easily trigger a drastic deterioration in food security. Close monitoring is also essential in the coffee producing zones of Sidama and Gedeo where a significant reduction in 2010 coffee production limited coffee labor opportunities on which poorer households heavily rely for a significant portion of their annual cash incomes. With regard to markets, there are no significant anomalies related to prices or market supplies. Cereal prices have shown an increasing trend over the past few months but remain generally lower than during the same period last year. Increased levels of acute malnutrition have been reported in some woredas (Kemba and Shashego) and a serious, ongoing outbreak of measles has continued in many parts of the region. In February, for example, new outbreaks were reported in five woredas (Burji, Wonsho, Arba Minch, Selamago and Kindo Koisha). In most parts of the region, especially in crop dependent areas, food security will remain stable and moderate through March. However, low income households will continue to be highly food insecure during April to June period given the constraints on food security described above. The food insecurity situation in southern Somali Regional, the Borena, Guji and Bale lowlands of Oromia, and South Omo of SNNPR is deteriorating as the dry season (January to March) progresses. High prices of local staples and imported food, and declining livestock prices, have constrained access and availability of food at household level. According to the Somali region food security update of February, prices of water increased by 40 to 260 percent per 200 liters over the last threee months. The water situation is critical and has led to school closures and increased school drop outs. There is high risk of water borne disease outbreaks from poor sanitation and use of unsafe water due to critical water shortages. Several woredas in Somali Region are already reporting increased incidence of acute watery diarrhea and dysentery. Livestock to cereal terms of trade have declined by 50 percent since December 2010. Water and pasture availability is very limited in most areas of concern. Increased livestock sale and abnormal movements; livestock feed and water purchases at high prices; increased sale of firewood and killing of new born calves to save the breeding stock are being reported to cope with the crisis. Livestock physical condition is worsening and animal mortality which is currently being reported in several woredas will likely to rise with the start of the rains in April. A standard nutrition survey conducted in December 2010 in Dolo Ado and Hudet of Liben zone by Save the Children USA suggested serious rates of 15.7 and 14.5 percent Global Acute Malnutrition with aggravating factors in the respective woredas. Recent monitoring reports also indicate widespread signs of acute malnutrition across the southern zones of the Region. Poor and very poor households in southern Somali, lowlands of Borena, Guji and Bale as well as South Omo will remain highly food insecure throughout the scenario period while extreme food insecurity is likely in parts of Somali where access is limited given the predicted below normal gu/genna (April to June) rains in 2011 in combination with serious declines in milk availability related to poor Deyr season conceptions. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update March 2011 Food security in Afar has remained stable due to the good 2010 karma (July to September) rains. Availability of pasture and water is generally normal in most areas despite the recent long dry season (October to Mid March) season. Ongoing food assistance programs (PSNP and Relief) are also helping stabilize household food security. However, a serious water shortage exists in the chronically water deficit parts of Zone 1 and Zone 2. Emergency water trucking has started in Dubti, Kori, Bidu and Elidar woredas, but is inadequate. The water and pasture shortages could reach critical levels if the current sugum (March to May) rains perform poorly as forecast. Already, deteriorations and depletions of pastures have started to be reported from some of the woredas (Chifra, Yalo, Kore, Elidar, Biddu, Erebti, Afdera and Hadadle).