Public Disclosure Authorized Climate Resilient Road Assets in Albania Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Jing Xiong and Xavier Espinet Alegre The World Bank February 2019 Table of content Acknowledgments vi Executive summary vii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Scope of the project 2 1.2 Project approach 4 1.3 Relevant stakeholders in Albania 7 1.4 Structure of the report 9 2 Albania Disaster Profile and Road Network 10 2.1 Disaster Profile 10 2.2 Climate and projections for the future 13 2.3 The road network 16 3 Risk Assessment 18 3.1 Introduction 18 3.2 Weather and climate change 19 3.3 Flooding hazard 19 3.4 Seismic hazard 21 3.5 Landslide hazard 22 3.6 Summary of multi-hazard risk assessment 24 3.7 Criticality 26 4 Mitigation Measures and Cost Benefit Analysis 28 4.1 Measures for flood hazard 29 4.2 Measures for Seismic hazard 33 4.3 Measures for Landslide hazard 35 4.4 Measures per corridor 41 4.5 Decision making under deep uncertainty 52 5 Conclusions, Recommendations and Areas for Improvement 59 Appendix A: Risk Assessment Methodology and Analysis 64 Appendix B: Detailed Results from Flooding CBA 101 List of Figures Figure 1.1 Map showing the primary network under consideration of this project. The colours indicate the various corridors within the primary road network ........ 3 Figure 1.2 Flow chart showing project approach for parts 1 and 2. ............................... 7 Figure 2.1 Mean historical monthly temperature and rainfall for Albania during the time 1901-2015 .................................................................................................... 13 Figure 2.2 Predicted mean change in precipitation for Albania during the time 2018 to 2060. ............................................................................................................ 14 Figure 2.3 Relative change in precipitation based on the CORDEX climate change projections, for a specific location (Tirana) in Albania. ................................ 14 Figure 2.4 Predicted Mean temperature change for Albania during the time 2018 to 2060. ............................................................................................................ 15 Figure 3.1 Amount of damage due to insufficient capacity of all bridges and the largest 100 culverts with a 1: 50-year probability for the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. ..................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 3.2 Landslide Annual Expected Damages risk map (i.e. annual repair costs per corridor). The risk is expressed as annual expected damage (in euro) per km of road. ......................................................................................................... 23 Figure 3.3 Total annual damages expressed as Annual Expected Damages (AED) in €/km per corridor .......................................................................................... 25 Figure 4.1 Steps in the disaster risk management cycle .............................................. 28 Figure 4.2 picture of typical retaining wall in Albania with landslide activity at location where the wall ends ..................................................................................... 37 Figure 4.3 Picture of typical stepped slope embankment in Albania............................ 38 Figure 4.4 Picture of rock anchors and wire mesh in Albania ...................................... 38 Figure 4.5 Damage category from pluvial floods for culverts and bridges under current climate conditions ........................................................................................ 43 Figure 4.6 Increase of number of failures (illustrative) to show the importance of proper maintenance (under small, medium and damage categories) .................... 47 Figure 4.7 Landslide susceptibility for corridors in Albania ......................................... 49 Figure 4.8 Plot of 1:100-year peak of peak fluvial discharge against the design flow capacity of analysed bridges and large culverts, indicating expected damage classes ......................................................................................................... 55 Figure 4.9 Numbers of damaged assets for the three damage classes per peak discharge return period under climate conditions subject to no forcing (reference), and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 ...................................................... 56 List of Tables Table 1.1 Project stakeholders ...................................................................................... 8 Table 2.1 Occurrence and relative consequences of different types of hazards ........ 11 Table 2.2 Consequences of different types of hazards ............................................... 11 Table 2.3 Occurrence and consequences of different types of disasters according to EM-DAT ...................................................................................................... 12 Table 2.4 Condition of Albanian road network ........................................................... 16 Table 3.1 Primary corridors in Albania with length and average daily traffic density . 18 Table 3.2 AED from floods per corridor (in 1,000 €) ................................................... 21 Table 3.3 Total AED for seismic events ...................................................................... 22 Table 3.4 AED from expected repair costs and damages from interruption of services due to landslide ............................................................................................ 23 Table 3.5 Repair costs and damages from interruption of services per corridor for all three hazards together ................................................................................ 24 Table 3.6 Overview of total damages and criticality .................................................... 26 Table 4.1 Identified measures considered under this project for flooding hazard ...... 29 Table 4.2 Unit costs for replacement of culverts ......................................................... 31 Table 4.3 Criteria and costs for the application of flooding hazard measures ............ 33 Table 4.4 Identified measures considered in this study for seismic hazard ................ 34 Table 4.5 Identified measures considered under this project for landslide hazard ..... 36 Table 4.6 Criteria and costs for the application of landslide measures ...................... 39 Table 4.7 AED from floods per corridor for cost of repairs and interruption of services (in 1,000 €) ................................................................................................... 41 Table 4.8 Failure level of selected culverts for corridors 2, 5, 6, 7, 12, 13 and 14 ..... 42 Table 4.9 Design discharges of replacement culverts ................................................ 42 Table 4.10 Bill of quantity for culvert replacement (2.5; 16 or 50 m3/s) (€) ................... 44 Table 4.11 Design discharges for new culverts and new damage assessment for current climate .......................................................................................................... 44 Table 4.12 Annual benefits for replacement of culverts for different damage categories per corridors (1,000 €) ................................................................................. 45 Table 4.13 CBA for repair costs only for replacement of culverts per corridor ............. 46 Table 4.14 CBA for all economic damages for replacement of culverts per corridor ... 46 Table 4.15 Additional damages (illustrative) that are incurred due to reduction of culvert capacity by 50% due to lack of maintenance .............................................. 47 Table 4.16 Magnitude of damage categories for landslide events................................ 48 Table 4.17 Landslide probability overview .................................................................... 48 Table 4.18 Damages from landslides per corridor in Albania (1,000 €) ........................ 50 Table 4.19 Investment costs per corridor for landslides measures (per km and million €) ..................................................................................................................... 51 Table 4.20 Costs and benefits (in M€) from investments for landslides ....................... 52 Table 4.21 Sensitivity analysis for effectiveness of investments for landslides ............ 52 Table 4.22 Key physical and socioeconomic drivers of uncertainty relevant to the Albanian road network ................................................................................. 53 Table 4.23 Damage classification for floods for the Albanian road network ................. 55 Table 4.24 Impact of different economic growth rates on B/C ratio for selected corridors for a 25-year time horizon ............................................................................ 57 Table 4.25 Influence of economic growth rate on traffic volume after 25 years ........... 58 Table 5.1 Summary of risk analysis (AED), prioritization (criticality) and B/C ratio of proposed measures ..................................................................................... 61 Acknowledgments This report was prepared by Jing Xiong, Senior Transport Specialist, and Xavier Espinet, Transport Specialist with the support of Artan Guxho, Senior Infrastructure Specialist, and Yuka Makino, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist. The report consolidates the findings and recommendations from the Technical Assistance (TA) for Climate Resilient