FY96 NCAR ASR Highlights 1996 ASR Highlights Highlights of NCAR's FY96 Achievements These are the most significant highlights from each NCAR division and program. Atmospheric Chemistry Division Highlights data missing Atmospheric Technology Division Highlights AVAPS/GPS Dropsonde System The development of the advanced Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS)/GPS Dropsonde System was close to completion at the end of FY 96. This work has been supported by NOAA and the Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR, Germany). AVAPS has now progressed to the point where all the NOAA data systems (two four-channel systems plus spares for the NOAA G-IV aircraft and two four-channel systems plus spares for the NOAA P-3 aircraft) have been delivered, and the initial flight testing has been completed. Both high-level (45,000-foot-altitude) and low-level (22,000-foot-altitude) drop tests have been completed, including intercomparison tests in which sondes were dropped from both the G-IV and the P-3s. Data taken by the AVAPS system on the G-IV and by a second system installed in a leased Lear 36 aircraft are expected to play a key role in the Fronts and Atlantic Storm Tracks Experiment (FASTEX), scheduled for early 1997. The DLR four-channel AVAPS system is currently being built and will be installed on the DLR Falcon aircraft in March 1997. NCAR has transferred the technology to the public sector by licensing a commercial firm (Vaisala, Inc.) to build future GPS sondes and data systems. This effort is led by Hal Cole and Terry Hock. Climate and Global Dynamics Division Highlights NCAR Climate System Modeling (CSM) Project Completion of phase one of the NCAR Climate System Modeling (CSM) project. (This figure (23K) shows the difference in annually averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between https://web.archive.org/web/20040911234809/http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/archives/asr/ASR96/highlights.html[12/23/2016 12:07:27 PM] FY96 NCAR ASR Highlights the coupled model simulation (years 50 to 59) and climatology.) (This figure (21K) shows monthly time series of sea ice areas in the Northern Hemisphere (top) and Southern Hemisphere (middle) and ice volumes (bottom). Twelve-month running means are shown in blue, and observed annual minimum and maximum ice areas are shown by horizontal lines. Estimated annual mean ice volumes for each hemisphere are also indicated on the bottom panel.) This involved releasing on the World Wide Web the four independent codes that comprise the CSM. They are documented in six NCAR Technical Reports that were released at the CSM Workshop. The NCAR CSM has now been integrated for 70 years without flux correction in heat or fresh water. The coupled model drifts are modest. This is the first time that a global coupled model has been run without flux correction that did not have substantial climate drift. Studies of the North Atlantic Oscillation Several studies have exploited the earlier work on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its importance in explaining regional temperature and precipitation patterns. Hurrell used multivariate linear regression to quantify the effects of pronounced decadal changes in the wintertime atmospheric circulation on Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures. Nearly all of the observed cooling in the northwest Atlantic and the warming across Europe and downstream over Eurasia since the mid-1970s results from the changes in the NAO, and the NAO accounts for 31% of the hemispheric interannual variance over the past 60 winters. Hurrell and van Loon showed that NAO-related anomalies in precipitation include dry wintertime conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and wetter-than-normal conditions over northern Europe and Scandinavia, consistent with that are changes in evaporation - precipitation (E - P) between high and low NAO index values (23K). Changes in the monthly mean flow over the Atlantic are accompanied by a northward shift in the stormtracks and associated synoptic eddy activity, and these changes help to reinforce and maintain the anomalous mean circulation in the upper troposphere. Giorgi, Hurrell, Marinucci, and Beniston have shown that temperature changes over the Alps associated with the NAO show a strong elevation dependency, such that the higher the elevation the greater the warm anomaly during a high NAO index winter. High Altitude Observatory Division Highlights Chromospheric Helium Imaging Photometer https://web.archive.org/web/20040911234809/http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/archives/asr/ASR96/highlights.html[12/23/2016 12:07:27 PM] FY96 NCAR ASR Highlights (Click on image for animation of this event, 503 KB mpeg.) The Chromospheric Helium Imaging Photometer (CHIP) was installed at MLSO on April 15, 1996 by the HAO Instrumentation Group and is now producing full solar disk images of chromospheric structure associated with coronal activity. The CHIP is the only patrol instrument in the world capable of making HeI images at 20 images per hour. This is the first step in development of the Advanced Coronal Observing System (ACOS) at HAO. LOWL Data Analysis Steve Tomczyk, Paul Charbonneau (both HAO), J. Christensen-Dalsgaard (Aarhus University), R. Henning (Denver University), J. Schou (Stanford University), and M. J. Thompson (Queen Mary and Westfield College) analyzed LOWL data obtained during the period February 26, 1994 to February 25, 1996 in order to determine the location and thickness of the rotational shear layer at the base of the convection zone. They find that the shear layer has position (0.704 +/- 0.003) solar radii and width (0.050 +/- 0.012) solar radii. Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division Highlights Cloud-Resolving Modeling Cloud-resolving modeling by Xiaoqing Wu (long-term visitor), Wojciech Grabowski, and Mitchell Moncrieff faithfully reproduces the evolution among various types of GATE convective cloud systems in three spatial dimensions. Even shallow shear-parallel lines which are not well resolved are reproduced, demonstrating that large-scale variables (e.g., shear and forcing) are the key quantities. Also, for the first time, a squall line was shown to evolve spontaneously from a field of clouds. This is good news for deterministic parameterizations of organized cloud systems for GCMs (General Circulation Models). Coupled Atmosphere-Fire Modeling https://web.archive.org/web/20040911234809/http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/archives/asr/ASR96/highlights.html[12/23/2016 12:07:27 PM] FY96 NCAR ASR Highlights A coupled atmosphere-fire numerical model developed by Terry Clark revealed the causes of common wildfire shapes and behavior and demonstrated how rotating columns near the fire front can rapidly intensify into a dangerous blowup. In agreement with observations, short-line fires bowed into a conical shape, while longer fire lines bent into multiple conical shapes due to feedback between the hot convective plumes and near-surface convergence at the fire front. Other experiments showed that when negative ambient wind shear existed, a pair of rotating updrafts at the fire front can touch down within the fire and break up the fire line. Scientific Computing Division Highlights USGCRP Climate Simulation Laboratory (CSL) The CSL completed its first year of operation on July 31, 1996, and during its first year nearly 100,000 equivalent Y-MP hours were delivered to 11 projects selected by the CSL Allocations Panel in July 1996. The 11 projects have used this computer time to carry out multidecadal simulations, and to develop and/or evaluate components for use in coupled systems models. (Click to see full-size image, 70K gif) This image shows the output of several components from the Climate Simulation Model, including visualizations of atmosphere and ocean model data. This particular image shows global surface temperature, an ocean temperature isosurface, and a cloud fraction isosurface. NCEP/NCAR Data Reanalysis Project The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project has a goal to prepare new global analyses for 40 years (1957-96), and to also do 10 earlier years if possible. Work started in February 1991 to prepare data, models, and systems. The operational production started June 1994. In September 1996, 20 years had been completed. Example: This sequence of images (856 KB mpeg) shows the March 1993 US East Coast blizzard as represented by output from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis archive. The Mean Sea Level Pressure field (hPa) is shown with contour lines, and the six-hour average precipitation rate (mm/hour) is shown with color shading. Image below: Reanalysis data is used to plot mean global temperatures and geopotential heights for December 1994 in this image. Advanced Study Program Highlights https://web.archive.org/web/20040911234809/http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/archives/asr/ASR96/highlights.html[12/23/2016 12:07:27 PM] FY96 NCAR ASR Highlights data missing Environmental and Societal Impacts Group Highlights Currents of Change Book As a part of the focus on Usable Science, Glantz finished work on Currents of Change: El Niño's Impact on Climate and Society. This book presents an all-encompassing view of the El Niño phenomenon, its causes and impacts. Published by Cambridge University Press in September 1996, it includes testimonial comments by 35 researchers on their involvement in ENSO research over the decades. Click on image to view entire cover (183k) Research Applications Program Highlights Data missing. Education Highlights Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science Twelve students from the U. S. and Puerto Rico participated in the first summer of Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science (SOARS). The 12 SOARS students worked with scientific mentors from five NCAR divisions. Clockwise from left: Christopher Castro, Carl Etsitty, Stephanie Rivale, Preston Heard, Lacey Holland, Quindi Franco, Jennifer Price, Kiesha Stevens, Paneen Petersen, Karen Mozealous, Jazmin Diaz-Lopez, and Jennifer Zabel. Super Science Saturday With funding from the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District, NCAR hosted Super Science Saturday, a community event at the Mesa Lab for educators, students, and parents.