Sweet Home Economic Opportunities Analysis April 2017 Prepared for: City of Sweet Home Final REPORT KOIN Center 222 SW Columbia Street Suite 1600 Portland, OR 97201 503.222.6060 This page intentionally blank Acknowledgments ECONorthwest prepared this report for the City of Sweet Home. ECONorthwest and the City of Sweet Home thank the many people who helped to develop the Sweet Home Economic Opportunities Analysis. Project Advisory Committee Bill Matthews, Chamber of Commerce Ed Moore, DLCD Edith Wilcox, Planning Commission Chair GreG Mahler, City Councilor Jared Cornell, Sweet Home Economic Development Group Joseph Graybill, City of Sweet Home Staff EnGineer Jo Ann McQueary, Rural Linn Economic Development State of Oregon Ed Moore, ReGional Representative, DLCD Rob Hallyburton, Grant ProGram ManaGer Thomas HoGue, Economic Development Planning Specialist, DLCD City of Sweet Home Michael Adams, Public Works Director Consulting Staff Beth Goodman, Project ManaGer, ECONorthwest Bob Parker, Project Director, ECONorthwest John MorGan, MorGanCPS Group This project is partially funded through a technical assistance Grant from the Department of Land Conservation and Development. For over 40 years ECONorthwest has helped its clients make sound decisions based on riGorous economic, planninG, and financial analysis. For more information about ECONorthwest: www.econw.com. For more information about this report, please contact: Michael J. Adams Beth Goodman Public Works Director ECONorthwest City of Sweet Home 222 SW Columbia, Suite 1600 541-818-8002 Portland, OR 97201 [email protected] 503-222-6060 [email protected] ECONorthwest Sweet Home Economic Opportunities Analysis iii This page intentionally blank Table of Contents SUMMARY I 1. INTRODUCTION 1 FRAMEWORK FOR AN ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS 2 ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT 3 2. BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY 4 METHODS, DEFINITIONS, AND ASSUMPTIONS 4 RESULTS OF THE BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY 5 3. FACTORS AFFECTING FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH 10 FACTORS THAT AFFECT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 10 SUMMARY OF THE EFFECTS OF NATIONAL, STATE, AND REGIONAL TRENDS ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN SWEET HOME 15 SWEET HOME’S COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES 47 4. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND SITE NEEDS 55 FORECAST OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND 55 TARGET INDUSTRIES 60 SITE NEEDS FOR POTENTIAL GROWTH INDUSTRIES 62 5. LAND SUFFICIENCY AND CONCLUSIONS 66 LAND SUFFICIENCY 66 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 67 APPENDIX A. BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY 70 METHODOLOGY 70 LAND BASE 72 VACANT BUILDABLE LAND 79 REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL 80 ECONorthwest Sweet Home Economic Opportunities Analysis v This page intentionally blank Summary This report presents an economic opportunities analysis (EOA) consistent with the requirements of statewide planninG Goal 9 and the Goal 9 administrative rule (OAR 660-009). Goal 9 describes the EOA as “an analysis of the community's economic patterns, potentialities, strengths, and deficiencies as they relate to state and national trends” and states that “a principal determinant in planninG for major industrial and commercial developments should be the competitive advantage of the reGion within which the developments would be located.” The primary Goals of the EOA are to (1) project the amount of land needed to accommodate the future employment Growth within the Sweet Home Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) between 2017 and 2037, (2) evaluate the existing employment land supply within the Sweet Home UGB to determine if it is adequate to meet that need, (3) provide a factual base to update Sweet Home’s Economic Development policies in the City’s Comprehensive Plan, and (3) to fulfill state planning requirements for a twenty-year supply of employment land. How much buildable employment land does Sweet Home currently have? Exhibit 1 shows unconstrained buildable land by plan desiGnation. The results show that Sweet Home has about 473 unconstrained buildable acres in commercial and industrial plan desiGnations. Of this, 93% (442 acres) is in the Commercial desiGnations1 and 7% (32 acres) is in Industrial. Exhibit 1. Unconstrained buildable acres by plan designation,Developed parcels +built portion of partially vacant Sweet Home UGB, 2016 Acres with No Total Development Constrained Unconstrained Plan Designation Tax Lots Total Acres Capacity Acres Buildable Acres Commercial 550 1,142 350 351 442 Central Commercial 190 43 36 4 2 Highway Commercial 255 166 130 8 28 Mixed Use Residential 10 71 9 5 57 Planned RecreationRecreation Commercial Commercial 95 864 175 333 355 Industrial 48 285 149 104 32 General Industry 11 27 22 5 1 Light Industrial 27 76 27 19 30 Heavy Industrial 10 182 101 81 1 Total 598 1,428 500 455 473 Source: Appendix A The Mixed Use Residential designation limits commercial development to 10,000 square feet per acre. As a result, a maximum of about 13 acres of Mixed Use Residential land are available for commercial development. 1 The Mixed Use Residential designation limits commercial development to 10,000 square feet per acre. As a result, a maximum of about 13 acres of Mixed Use Residential land are available for commercial development. ECONorthwest Sweet Home Economic Opportunities Analysis i How much growth is Sweet Home planning for? Goal 9 requires that cities provide for an adequate supply of commercial and industrial sites consistent with plan policies. To meet this requirement, Sweet Home needs an estimate of the amount of commercial and industrial land that will be needed over the 2017-2037 planning period. Exhibit 2 presents the forecast of employment Growth by land use type in Sweet Home’s UGB from 2017 to 2037. Sweet Home’s employment base was 2,356 employees in 2017. The forecast shows that by 2037, Sweet Home will have 2,925 employees, an increase of 584 jobs over the planninG period. Exhibit 2. Forecast of employment growth by land use type, Sweet Home UGB, 2017–2037 2017 2037 Change 2017 Land Use Type Employment % of Total Employment % of Total to 2037 Industrial 454 19% 614 21% 160 Retail Commercial 388 16% 482 16% 94 Office & Commercial Services 967 41% 1,258 43% 291 Government 546 23% 585 20% 39 Total 2,356 100% 2,925 100% 584 Source: ECONorthwest Note: The shaded percentages denote an assumption about the future change in the share of employment (as a percent of total) by land use type. How much land will be required for employment? The forecast of Growth of 584 new employees will result in the followinG demand for vacant (and partially vacant) employment land: 18 gross acres of industrial land, 6 gross acres of retail commercial land, and 18 Gross acres of land for office and commercial services. Does Sweet Home have enough land to accommodate employment growth? Sweet Home does have enouGh land to accommodate employment Growth. Exhibit 3 shows that Sweet Home has 14 acres of industrial land beyond land needed to accommodate growth over the next 20 years. Sweet Home has a surplus of 18 acres of commercial land,2 as well as 355 acres of buildable land in Recreation Commercial desiGnation. The land in Recreation Commercial provides Sweet Home with an important opportunity for economic development, but current zoning is a barrier to most types of employment uses. The City is considerinG rezoninG that land to allow a wider ranGe of employment uses. This forecast does not include potential Growth of larGe businesses that are attracted to Sweet Home because of development opportunities from Recreation Commercial land. 2 This estimate excludes some of the vacant land in the of Mixed Use Residential designation. The reason for this exclusion is that this DesiGnation limits commercial development to 10,000 square feet per acre, resultinG in only 13 of the 57 vacant and partially vacant acres of Mixed Use Residential available for commercial development. ECONorthwest Sweet Home Economic Opportunities Analysis ii Exhibit 3. Comparison of the Capacity of Unconstrained Vacant and Partially Vacant Land with Employment Land Demand by Plan Designation,Land Sweet Home UGB, 2017–2037 Land Supply Demand Land (Suitable (Gross Sufficiency Land Use Type Gross Acres) Acres) (Deficit) Industrial 32 18 14 Commercial* 42 24 18 Retail Commercial 6 Office & Commercial Services 18 Recreation Commercial 355 NA NA Source: ECONorthwest * Commercial land excludes Recreation Commercial * The Mixed Use Residential designation limits commercial development to 10,000 square feet per acre. As a result, a maximum of about 13 acres of Mixed Use Residential land are available for commercial development. What types of business does Sweet Home want to attract? The characteristics of Sweet Home will affect the types of businesses most likely to locate in the city. Sweet Home’s attributes that may attract firms are: Sweet Home’s location alonG HiGhway 20 and distance from I-5; availability of land (especially the Recreational Commercial area3); the existinG employment base; water and wastewater capacity; surroundinG forest areas; access to workers from across the mid-Willamette Valley; hiGh quality of life; and relatively affordable housing. The tarGet industries identified as having potential for Growth in Sweet Home are: § Manufacturing. Sweet Home’s attributes, especially its location alonG HiGhway 20, access to the rail, and potential availability of land currently zoned for Recreation Commercial, may attract manufacturinG firms. Examples of manufacturinG industries that may Grow or locate in Sweet Home include: o Primary and secondary wood product manufacturinG, such as enGineered wood products, furniture manufacturing, prefabricated wood buildings, or other products o Specialty food and beveraGe manufacturinG, such as wineries, beer brewinG, fruit or veGetable products, or other products o Forest products o Renewable and alternative enerGy products, such as biomass § Small-scale warehouse, distribution, and wholesale. Sweet Home’s access to HiGhway 20 may make the city attractive to small distribution for locally produced products, such as food or beverages. These businesses may locate in an existinG buildinG or may locate a facility on an industrial site, likely between 2 and 10 acres, with Good access to transportation and a flat topoGraphy.