Pro-Regime Youth: Janet M. Lawler An Authoritarian Regime’s Solution to The University of Iowa [email protected] Democratic Youth Movements 4 Hypothetical Implications 6 Factors dependent on pro-regime youth success 1 Youth associations as an authoritarian defense •Displaying: Deterred Pro- •Preemptive Timing Powerful Pro-Regime Youth Pro-Regime Opportunities Significance democracy • Pro-regime youth associations espouse the ideology of, receive a majority •Unique Timing of their funding from, or were established by the regime. Association Opportunities Associations for Members and Visibility Youth • Nashi, Russia •Significance Movement • KelKel, Kyrgyzstan High • Zhas Otan, Kazakhstan Nashi High Preemptive Yes Unique • Unión de Jóvenes Comunistas, Cuba Question 1: Do pro-regime youth associations deter pro-democracy •Existence Pro-Democracy Youth Low movements? •Significant or Not Low Movement KelKel Significance Concurrent No Questions 2: If so, how? Unexceptional • Color Revolution Context Low Visibility • Previous lack of attention to pro-regime youth associations • Method of authoritarian hybridization of civil society Moderate Zhas Otan High Subsequent Yes Unique 2 Pro-regime youth relationship to pro-democracy Weak Pro-Democracy Youth Movement Unión de High Pro-regime youth associations deterrence Jóvenes High Preemptive Yes • Unique As a strong factor (Beachain, 2010; Hovrath, 2011; Kuzio, 2006a; Polese, Comunistas 2011; Robertson, 2009) •Less Visible • As a weak factor (Freedome House, 2009; Khamidov, 2006; Wallace, •Less Significant 2001) How pro-regime youth associations deter Significance and visibility before and after • Violent oppression among youth 7 Conclusions • Highly organized with internal advancement structure Before Pro-Regime After Pro-Regime Though this study affirms no causal link ensuring a pro-regime youth • Preemptive establishment Pro-DemocracyYouth Youth Association Youth Association movement’s success over a democratic youth movement, it does • Individual opportunities and co-optation Movements Creation Creation illuminate the processes which they use and their degree of success. 3 Successfully deterring pro-democracy youth Young Yabloko, Falling Significance Pro-regime youth associations can deter pro-democracy youth Rising Visibility Walking Without Putin, Low Visibility movements if they have: Rising Significance Oborona Youth Opinion Shift • Unique opportunities Timing • Appealing to youth High Visibility •Preemptive establishment KelKel, Rising Visibility • Jobs, education, government promotion High Significance •Democratic movement Birge Moderate Significance • Opportunities unable to be attained without membership significance before and Tulip Revolution • Significant presence after • Large numbers Society of Young • Removing possible members from democratic movement Professionals (OMPK), Low Visibility Associations Disbanded • Engendering popular regime support amongst non-youth Kahar, Low Significance Opposition Participation • High visibility Significance Social Resistance Extra-legal Banned Opportunities • Multiple publicized protests •Numbers Movement • Devoted media attention and promotion •Funding •Unique to Timing not as necessary for successful deterrence •Visibility association Dissatisfaction with • Zhas Otan •Demonstrations, •Appealing to youth Youth attitudes toward Majority Supporting Regime The establishment of a pro-regime youth movement can work as a rallies, etc. democracy New Regime Youth Activists viable and successful authoritarian weapon in the face of an oncoming Repressed democratic youth movement..