YOOL KIM, ELLIOT AXELBAND, ABBY DOLL, MEL EISMAN, MYRON HURA, EDWARD G. KEATING, MARTIN C. LIBICKI, BRADLEY MARTIN, MICHAEL E. MCMAHON, JERRY M. SOLLINGER, ERIN YORK, MARK V. A RENA, IRV BLICKSTEIN, WILLIAM SHELTON ACQUISITION OF SPACE SYSTEMS PAST PROBLEMS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES VOLUME 7 C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/MG1171z7 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015933393 ISBN: 978-0-8330-8895-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2015 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: United Launch Alliance Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Space systems deliver critical capability to warfighters; thus, acquiring and deploying space systems in a timely and affordable manner is important to U.S. national secu- rity. However, many Department of Defense (DoD) space programs experienced large cost growth, schedule delays, and unanticipated technical problems for years, raising concerns about potential operational gaps in some critical space capabilities, because satellites were not being delivered as scheduled to replace the aging legacy systems in orbit. The difficulties faced during development of these systems may have been mostly resolved, because the systems have been delivered or are entering the production phase, but as DoD plans for the next-generation space systems in increasingly challenging fiscal and security environments, it is important to apply lessons learned from the past DoD space acquisition experience. RAND was asked to identify key factors that con- tributed to the difficulties in DoD space acquisition. This report should interest policymakers concerned with military acquisition and related issues. It was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) Performance Assessments and Root Cause Analysis (PARCA) office and conducted within the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant- Com mands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. Other RAND research sponsored by PARCA includes: • Irv Blickstein et al., Root Cause Analyses of Nunn-McCurdy Breaches, Volume 1: Zumwalt-Class Destroyer, Joint Strike Fighter, Longbow Apache, and Wideband Global Satellite, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-1171/1-OSD, 2011. • Irv Blickstein et al., Root Cause Analyses of Nunn-McCurdy Breaches, Volume 2: Excalibur Artillery Projectile and the Navy Enterprise Resource Planning Program, with an Approach to Analyzing Complexity and Risk, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-1171/2-OSD, 2012. iii iv Acquisition of Space Systems, Volume 7: Past Problems and Future Challenges • Irv Blickstein et al., Root Cause Analyses of Nunn-McCurdy Breaches, Volume 3: Joint Tactical Radio System, P-8A Poseidon, and Global Hawk Modifications, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-1171/3, 2013. • Mark Arena et al., Management Perspectives Pertaining to Root Cause Analyses of Nunn-McCurdy Breaches, Volume 4: Program Manager Tenure, Oversight of Acqui- sition Category II Programs, and Framing Assumptions. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG1171/4, 2013. For more information on the RAND Acquisition and Technology Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/atp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...................................................................................vii Summary .............................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments ..................................................................................xiii Abbreviations .........................................................................................xv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Long-Standing Concerns about Space Acquisition ................................................ 1 Overview of Past Literature ........................................................................... 2 Purpose and Tasks ..................................................................................... 4 Research Approach and Scope ........................................................................ 5 How the Report Is Organized ........................................................................ 5 CHAPTER TWO Review of Selected DoD Space Programs ........................................................ 7 Space-Based Infrared System ......................................................................... 7 Global Positioning System IIF .......................................................................12 Advanced Extremely High Frequency Program ...................................................15 Wideband Global SATCOM ........................................................................19 Global Positioning System III ...................................................................... 22 Summary .............................................................................................. 26 CHAPTER THREE Effects of the 1990s’ Space Acquisition Environmental Factors on the Programs ......29 Shift in Requirements Increased Complexity ......................................................29 Acquisition Reform ...................................................................................32 Commercial Space Market ...........................................................................35 Summary .............................................................................................. 36 v vi Acquisition of Space Systems, Volume 7: Past Problems and Future Challenges CHAPTER FOUR Space Acquisition Challenges and Space Enterprise Management Issues.................39 Space Acquisition Challenges ........................................................................39 Space Enterprise Management Issues .............................................................. 44 Summary ...............................................................................................53 CHAPTER FIVE Recent Progress and Future Challenges in DoD Space Acquisition .......................55 Recent Progress in Space Acquisition ...............................................................55 Future Challenges and Potential Implications for Future Space Acquisition Programs ..... 60 Lessons Learned from the 1990s ...................................................................61 Summary ...............................................................................................63 CHAPTER SIX Conclusions ...........................................................................................65 APPENDIXES A. List of Interviews .................................................................................67 B. Projecting Defense Space System Budget Growth: Issues of Inflation Index Selection ..........................................................................................69 Bibliography ..........................................................................................89 Figures and Tables Figures 1.1. Sources of Space Systems Growth ...................................................... 3 2.1. SBIRS Program Cost Growth History ................................................. 8 2.2. SBIRS Program Schedule Overrun History ..........................................11 2.3. History of GPS IIF Cost Growth ......................................................13 2.4. GPS IIF Program Schedule Overrun History ........................................15 2.5. AEHF Program Cost Growth History ................................................17 2.6. AEHF Program Schedule Delay History .............................................19 2.7. History of the WGS Program Cost Growth......................................... 20 2.8. WGS Program Schedule Delay History .............................................. 23 2.9. GPS III Cost Growth History ........................................................ 26 4.1. Long Gaps Between Orders and Unpredictable Buy Schedule .................... 40 4.2. Vicious Circle Between Satellite High Reliability