Ministry of Transport and Communications The Republic of the Union of Myanmar DATA COLLECTION SURVEY ON NATIONAL LOGISTICS IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE UNION OF MYANMAR FINAL REPORT VOLUME 1 : MAIN TEXT MARCH 2018 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA) Kensetsu Gijyutsu Center, Ltd. Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. The Overseas Coastal Area Development Institute of Japan Nittsu Research Institute and Consulting, Inc. EI JR 18-040 Data Collection Survey on National Logistics in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar Final Report Volume 1 Data Collection Survey on National Logistics in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar Final Report Volume 1: Main Text Table of Contents Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SUMMARY CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Survey ............................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Objectives of the Survey .............................................................................. 1-2 1.3 Structure of Final Report .............................................................................. 1-3 CHAPTER 2 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK 2.1 Cargo Demand Forecast based on Economic Perspective of Myanmar....... 2-1 2.2 Economic Development Corridors in Indochina Peninsula ......................... 2-12 2.3 Economic Outlook and Opportunities by Economic Sector ........................ 2-13 2.4 Expansion of Trade ...................................................................................... 2-34 CHAPTER 3 VARIOUS DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND POLICIES 3.1 Country Context ........................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Current Development Plans of Myanmar 3-4 3.3 Summary of Development Policies and its Implications ............................. 3-36 3.4 Economic and Logistics Development Scenario .......................................... 3-40 CHAPTER 4 NATIONAL TRANSPORT MASTER PLAN 4.1 Outline of National Transport Master Plan (NTMP) ................................... 4-1 4.2 Implications for National Logistics Master Plan (NLMP) ........................... 4-6 CHAPTER 5 REGIONAL COOPERATION FRAMEWORK 5.1 ASEAN Cooperation .................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Strategy and Action Plan for the Greater Mekong Sub-region (East-West Economic Corridor) ................................................................... 5-17 5.3 ASEAN Economic Community ................................................................... 5-20 5.4 Cooperation with Immediate Neighboring Countries .................................. 5-22 CHAPTER 6 CARGO DEMAND FORECAST 6.1 Factors Considered for Cargo Demand Forecast ......................................... 6-1 6.2 International Cargo Traffic ........................................................................... 6-13 6.3 Cargo Flow Volume Estimation and Projection ........................................... 6-17 6.4 Methodology for the Cargo Demand Forecast ............................................. 6-18 6.5 Present Origin-Destination Table ................................................................. 6-22 6.6 Cargo Demand Forecast ............................................................................... 6-27 6.7 Modal Share Model ...................................................................................... 6-37 6.8 Cargo Volume Projection by Mode in ton-km ............................................. 6-45 6.9 Cargo Flow Pattern by Transport Mode ....................................................... 6-47 i Data Collection Survey on National Logistics in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar Final Report Volume 1 CHAPTER 7 LOGISTICS SECTOR ISSUES 7.1 Factors Underpinning Logistics Performance Improvement ....................... 7-1 7.2 Sector Issues ................................................................................................. 7-7 CHAPTER 8 LOGISTICS DEVELOPMENT VISION AND STRATEGY UP TO 2030 8.1 Structure of the Logistics Development Vision and Strategies .................... 8-1 8.2 Overall Strategies for Logistics Development ............................................. 8-2 8.3 Logistics Development Strategy by Sub-sector ........................................... 8-6 8.4 Logistics Corridor Development Strategy ................................................... 8-62 CHAPTER 9 CORRIDOR BASED LOGISTICS INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT PLAN 9.1 Profile of Logistics Corridors....................................................................... 9-1 9.2 Logistics Corridor Analysis.......................................................................... 9-8 CHAPTER 10 PROPOSED PROJECTS 10.1 Approach and Planning Considerations ....................................................... 10-1 10.2 Proposed Projects and Rank of Priority ....................................................... 10-26 10.3 Prioritization of Logistics Corridor Developments ...................................... 10-48 CHAPTER 11 MULTIMODAL FREIGHT LOGISTICS HUBS 11.1 Multimodal Freight Logistics Hubs ............................................................. 11-1 11.2 Composition of Each Multimodal Freight Logistics Hub Projects .............. 11-14 CHAPTER 12 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL CONSIDERATIONS 12.1 Policy of Environmental and Social Considerations .................................... 12-1 12.2 Existing Status of the Environment in Myanmar ......................................... 12-7 12.3 Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) ................................................ 12-30 12.4 Reviewing the Potential Negative Impact on Environmental and Social Issues .......................................................................................... 12-31 CHAPTER 13 FREIGHT TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS INDUSTRIES 13.1 Present Situation of Players of Logistics Sector .......................................... 13-1 13.2 Current Issues of Players in the Logistics Sector ......................................... 13-7 13.3 Feasible Measures to Address These Issues ................................................. 13-12 13.4 Cross-cutting Issues of the Logistics Industry and Possible Feasible Measures .......................................................................... 13-15 13.5 Feasible Measures to Address Cross-cutting Issues ..................................... 13-16 13.6 Administrators .............................................................................................. 13-18 CHAPTER 14 INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 14.1 Institutional Set-up ....................................................................................... 14-1 14.2 Mechanism Concerned with the Development of Transport Infrastructure . 14-9 14.3 Capacity Assessment .................................................................................... 14-14 14.4 Institutional Development Policy and Plan .................................................. 14-22 CHAPTER 15 LOGISTICS SECTOR DEVELOPMENT ROAD MAP 15.1 Logistics Sector Development Road Map .................................................... 15-1 15.2 Sequential Order of the Action Plans ........................................................... 15-2 15.3 Road Map by Sub-sector .............................................................................. 15-3 15.4 Action Plans ................................................................................................. 15-8 ii Data Collection Survey on National Logistics in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar Final Report Volume 1 CHAPTER 16 FINANCIAL SCHEME 16.1 Financing for Transport / Logistics Infrastructure Development / Improvement Projects .................................................................................. 16-1 16.2 Financing SMEs Operating in Transport / Logistics Sector 16-11 CHAPTER 17 LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE INDEX 17.1 The Outline of the Logistics Performance Index ......................................... 17-1 17.2 Implication of LPI in the Economic Growth ................................................ 17-8 17.3 Implication of Logistics Improvement to Economic Growth ...................... 17-9 17.4 How can the LPI of Myanmar be raised? ..................................................... 17-10 iii Data Collection Survey on National Logistics in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar Final Report Volume 1 List of Tables Page CHAPTER 2 Table-2.1.1 Change in Myanmar’s GDP ...................................................................................... 2-3 Table-2.3.1 Outline of SEZs as of February 2017 ........................................................................ 2-23 Table-2.4.1 Change of the Trade Value by Type of Gateway ....................................................... 2-34 Table-2.4.2 Export and Import Amount in 2011 and 2015 by Directions .................................... 2-35 Table-2.4.3 Change of GDP and Trade Value in Vietnam in the Past ........................................... 2-37 CHAPTER 3 Table-3.2.1 Comparison of Indicators of Agricultural Productivity and Food Security ............... 3-9 Table-3.2.2 12 Points of National Economic Policy of 2016 ....................................................... 3-21 Table-3.2.3 Development of Infrastructure for Industrial Sector ................................................. 3-30 Table-3.2.4 Development Strategies and Policies of each Development Plan ............................. 3-40 CHAPTER 4 Table-4.1.1 Transport Policies in NTMP .....................................................................................