Borough of Tunbridge Wells Housing Needs Study 2018 Tunbridge Wells Borough Council Final Report July 2018 Main Contact: Dr Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2018 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Tunbridge Wells Borough HNS 2018 Page | 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... 8 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 8 Housing market context .................................................................................................. 8 Affordable housing .......................................................................................................... 9 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................... 13 Background and objectives ........................................................................................... 13 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requirements ......................................... 13 Definitions ..................................................................................................................... 14 Geography ..................................................................................................................... 15 Research methodology ................................................................................................. 19 Presentation of data ..................................................................................................... 19 Report structure ............................................................................................................ 19 2. Policy and strategic review ................................................................................... 21 National context............................................................................................................ 21 Strategic context ........................................................................................................... 21 Local context ................................................................................................................. 23 Concluding comments .................................................................................................. 24 3. Understanding the housing market ....................................................................... 25 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 25 House prices and rates of change in house prices ....................................................... 25 Relative affordability ..................................................................................................... 30 Household migration and search patterns ................................................................... 31 Travel to work trends .................................................................................................... 32 Concluding comments .................................................................................................. 33 4. Housing stock review............................................................................................ 34 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure ..................... 34 Property condition ........................................................................................................ 39 Property tenure ............................................................................................................ 41 Private rented sector .................................................................................................... 45 Affordable sector .......................................................................................................... 48 Relative affordability of housing tenure options .......................................................... 50 Concluding comments .................................................................................................. 56 5. Understanding the future housing market in the Borough of Tunbridge Wells ....... 57 Key market drivers ........................................................................................................ 57 Suggested future development profile of market dwellings ........................................ 62 Concluding comments .................................................................................................. 67 6. The need for all types of housing .......................................................................... 70 March 2018 Tunbridge Wells Borough HNS 2018 Page | 3 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 70 Current households in need ......................................................................................... 70 Affordable housing requirements ................................................................................. 73 Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements .............. 77 7. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues .................................................................. 93 The Housing Market Area ............................................................................................. 93 The current housing market ......................................................................................... 93 Future housing market.................................................................................................. 94 Housing need and demand ........................................................................................... 94 Improving the quality of existing stock ......................................................................... 95 Introduction to Technical Appendices .............................................................................. 98 Technical Appendix A: Research methodology ................................................................. 99 Overall approach ........................................................................................................... 99 Baseline dwelling stock information and household survey sample errors ................. 99 Stakeholder survey ..................................................................................................... 101 Estate and letting agent review .................................................................................. 101 Technical Appendix B: Policy review .............................................................................. 102 Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations ........................................................... 111 Summary of contents .................................................................................................. 111 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 112 Stage 1: Current need ................................................................................................ 115 Stage 2: Future housing need .................................................................................... 119 Stage 3: Affordable housing supply ........................................................................... 120 Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need ................................................................. 121 Total net imbalance .................................................................................................... 123 Tenure and dwelling type profile of affordable dwellings ......................................... 124 Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updating ............................................................ 125 A framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements ................................................................................................. 125 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 125 Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements ............. 125 Concluding comments ................................................................................................ 126 Technical Appendix E: Stakeholder survey .................................................................... 128 March 2018 Tunbridge Wells Borough HNS 2018 Page | 4 List of Tables Table ES1 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by analysis area, property size and designation 2017/18 to 2021/22 ............................................................... 10 Table ES2 Open market dwelling stock and preferences .................................................. 11 Table 1.1 23 local analysis areas ....................................................................................... 17 Table 3.1 Comparative house price change 2000-2016 with neighbouring local authority areas, the South East and England ................................................... 27 Table 3.2 Relative affordability of lower quartile (LQ) prices by local authority area (residence based) .............................................................................................. 30 Table 3.3 Relative affordability of median prices by local authority area