The United States and Nuclear Politics of South Asia By Attiq-ur-Rehman Area Study Centre for Africa, North & South America Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, Pakistan 2019 The United States and Nuclear Politics of South Asia By Attiq-ur-Rehman Area Study Centre for Africa, North & South America Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, Pakistan 2019 The United States and Nuclear Politics of South Asia A dissertation submitted to Area Study Centre in partial fulfilment for the award of Doctor of Philosophy in American Studies By Attiq-ur-Rehman Area Study Centre for Africa, North & South America Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, Pakistan 2019 Plagiarism Undertaking I declare that the research work done in the dissertation titled The United States and Nuclear Politics of South Asia is solely my research work, with no major contribution from any other person. The thesis has been written by me, however, small contribution taken has been duly acknowledged. I comprehend the strict rules and regulations of the HEC, Quaid-i-Azam University and Area Study Centre for Africa, North & South America, Islamabad regarding plagiarism. I, therefore, as an author of the thesis declare that no portion of the dissertation has been plagiarized and any material used as reference is properly referred/ cited. I undertake that if I found guilty for any formal plagiarism in my dissertation even after the award of Ph. D Degree, the university has the right to suspend my degree. _________________________ Attiq ur Rehman PhD Student, Area Study Centre for Africa, North & South America, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Dedicated To My Mother ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am grateful to Dr. Nauman Sattar, Area Study Centre for Africa, North & South America, whose kind suggestions and encouragement enabled me to accomplish this dissertation. I cannot find the appropriate words to express my deep gratitude to my supervisor Professor Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, School of Politics and International Relations (SPIR), Quaid-i-Azam University, for providing continuous guidance and encouragement. His appreciation and supervision made the completion of this task possible. I would also like to thank Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema, Dr. Zulfqar Khan, Brig. (R) Tughral Yamin, whose suggestions and support enabled me to complete this study. Moreover, I am highly thankful and show my immense respect to my colleagues, Dr. Sarwat Rauf and Mr. Ghazanfar Ali Grewal, for supporting me morally and academically during my research and accommodating me in my professional engagements for the completion this task. I am also grateful to my family, especially Mr. & Mrs. Adnan Munir Baig and all of my friends. They provided me moral support and stood by me whenever I needed them. Attiq-ur-Rehman July 2019 The United States and Nuclear Politics of South Asia Attiq-ur-Rehman CONTENTS ABSTRACT i Introduction 01 1. Significance of Study 06 2. Statement of Problem 26 3. Hypothesis 28 4. Research Methodology 29 5. Organization of the Study 30 CHAPTER.1 Theoretical Framework 33 1. Philosophical Contextualization 38 2. Defining Anarchy 40 3. Other Assumptions 43 4. Power Politics 49 5. Security in an Anarchical World 51 6. Anarchy in a Nuclear World 57 7. Nuclear Arms in South Asia 62 8. International System and Regional Sub-Systems 68 9. Regional Sub-Systems and South Asia 70 CHAPTER.2 Pak-US Strategic Nexus: Inception, Evolution, and Continuity 75 1. Exploring of US Alliance 79 1.1. Ideological Cohesions 86 1.2. Territorial Politics 92 1.3. Military Aid 96 1.4. Economic Assistance 100 2. Geostrategic Interests 102 3. Cooperative Foundations of Bilateralism 107 4. Beijing-Islamabad-Washington Axis 111 5. Smiling Buddha: Responses from Islamabad and Washington 114 6. Shadows of the Afghan War 119 7. Bilateral Values in the Post-Cold War Era 122 8. US Dilemma during Sanctions 125 9. War against Terrorism 132 10. Afghanistan Conundrum 138 11. Post-Nuclearized South Asia 143 12. Indo-US Nuclear Deal and Pakistan 145 13. Estranged Pak-US Ties 148 14. Post-Nuclearized Indo-Pak Hostility 153 15. The US and South Asian Regional Order 160 16. Concluding Analysis 164 CHAPTER.3. Indo-US Strategic Nexus: Inception, Evolution, and Continuity 168 1. Indian Strategic Thinking 179 2. Evolution of Indo-US Bilateralism 185 3. India’s Concern on Pak-US Relations 191 4. Indian Non-Alignment Policy 196 5. The Regional Belligerence of India 202 6. Indo-China Border Clash 208 7. Indo-Pak Wars and the US Role 215 8. Smiling Buddha: An Irritant in Indo-US Relations 219 9. Aftermaths of Smiling Buddha 224 10. India-United States in the Post-Cold War Era 230 11. Post-Nuclearized South Asia 235 12. Post Nuclearized Indo-Pak Hostility 240 13. Indo-US Nuclear Deal 243 14. Two-sided Strategic Bilateralism 246 15. Strengthening of Multidimensional Rations 251 16. India and World Politics 257 17. Modi and Global Power Politics 261 18. US, India and World Politics 266 19. Concluding Analysis 271 CHAPTER.4. The Evolving Contours of US South Asia Policy 276 1. Cold War and Soviet Union 281 2. Cold War Geopolitics and Soviet Union 287 3. The Perplexing Bilateralism of the US 294 4. What is De-Hyphenation in World Politics 303 5. Washington’s De-Hyphenation Policy 304 6. Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation 310 7. The Efforts to Uphold India in World Politics 314 8. Balancing Rising China 317 9. Pakistan-China Relations under CPEC 321 10. Indian Global Outreach 327 11. The US Restructuring in Asian Context 333 12. South Asian Politics and United States 341 13. Options for Re-Hyphenation Policy 349 14. Concluding Analysis 354 CHAPTER.5. Conclusion 359 BIBLIOGRAPHY 381 Annexures 433 Abstract The nuclear politics of South Asia – in the context of the protracted India-Pakistan conflict – has become one of the most debated topic of contemporary international systems analysis. During the four decades long US-USSR Cold War rivalry, South Asia was an epicentre of great power politics. The standing of New Delhi and Islamabad and their hostile relationship proved centrally important in the wider context of extra-regional power between the United States and Soviet Union. The importance of both India and Pakistan in the Cold War resulted in the US active involvement in the region and placed eventually both India and Pakistan with the United States. The proliferation of overt nuclear weapons in South Asia further intensified the role of United States in the politics of nuclearized subcontinent. The opening of complex bilateral relations by President Bill Clinton and initiation of a global war on terror by President George W. Bush marked a new chapter in the history of subcontinent for both of the principal contestants of South Asia. Subsequently, the administrations of Obama and Trump continued the policy of bilateralism and generated a plan of de-hyphenation for New Delhi and Islamabad by establishing separate relations with India and Pakistan. The strategic consequences of the US bilateral policy intensified the American role in South Asia, moving India closer to the US, while critically re-examining and re-evluating the standing of Pakistan in the region simultaneously. Hence, the trilateral strategic relations between the United States, India, and Pakistan structured an American South Asian policy that proved ultimately to be perplexing. Indo-US and Pak-US complex relations have proven to be complex and, in past, reflect a dichotomy in American South Asian relations. Now, it is difficult to separate the American role from strategic competition of India and Pakistan. This dissertation is an effort to provide a scholarly dimension to the American South Asian engagement, which encompasses a complex and an extensive record of cooperative and estranged diplomatic interaction. Moreover, this study is an attempt to comprehend the triangular relationship of i power between these. The theoretical conception of neorealism is applied to understand the South Asian nuclear arms race and its persistent growth in the presence of extra-regional powers. The interconnectedness of South Asian regional sub-system to greater international system carried the debate in this research which attempted to emphasize particularly the US engagement with India and Pakistan. In the end, the research endeavoured to craft a proposed the future scenarios of US South Asian engagement. ii Introduction The presence of nuclear weapons in South Asia amidst the vicious strategic competition between India and Pakistan has made the region a nuclear flash point. The overt nuclearization in 1998, with the proclamation of nuclear weapon capabilities by New Delhi and Islamabad, further intensified the already fragile regional security environment of the region. Coupled with the rapidly growing strategic contest between India and Pakistan, the nuclear weapons dramatically altered intricate dynamics of the regional strategic equilibrium. According to the Realist, security continues to be the primary imperative behind the nuclear race in South Asia. However, the Neorealist school of thought factors in the structural foundations of international system, which expounds that India acquired the nuclear weapons to deter China which escalated into an endless nuclear race in the region by heightening the threat perception for Pakistan. Pakistan’s quest for acquiring nuclear armed status after the 1971 Indo-Pakistan War led to the fall of East Pakistan. The tragedy of 1971 shaped the strategic preferences of Pakistan’s security establishment vis-à-vis malicious Indian ambitions towards the territorial integrity of Pakistan. Indira Gandhi’s ‘peaceful’ nuclear explosions, conducted on May 18 1974, became a strong stimulus for Pakistan to achieving nuclear status. Consequently, the South Asian nuclear arms race began to unfold which attracted the attentions of international strategic community. The prevailing trends in the South Asian nuclear arms race occurred and forced a competitive strategic environment. The Indo-Pak hostility cemented in inflexible national standings, incompatible bilateral positions on several issues of regional and international significance along with several conflicting claims against each other continuously stirring a strategic competition.