sudanHuman Security Baseline Assessment issue brief Small Arms Survey Number 16 April 2010 Symptoms and causes Insecurity and underdevelopment in Eastern Equatoria astern Equatoria state (EES) is The survey was supplemented by qual- 24,789 (± 965) households in the one of the most volatile and itative interviews and focus group three counties contain at least one E conflict-prone states in South- discussions with key stakeholders in firearm. ern Sudan. An epicentre of the civil EES and Juba in January 2010. Respondents cited traditional lead- war (1983–2005), EES saw intense Key findings include: ers (clan elders and village chiefs) fighting between the Sudanese Armed as the primary security providers Across the entire sample, respond- Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People’s in their areas (90 per cent), followed ents ranked education and access Liberation Army (SPLA), as well by neighbours (48 per cent) and reli- to adequate health care as their numerous armed groups supported gious leaders (38 per cent). Police most pressing concerns, followed by both sides, leaving behind a legacy presence was only cited by 27 per by clean water. Food was also a top of landmines and unexploded ordnance, cent of respondents and the SPLA concern in Torit and Ikotos. Security high numbers of weapons in civilian by even fewer (6 per cent). ranked at or near the bottom of hands, and shattered social and com- Attitudes towards disarmament overall concerns in all counties. munity relations. were positive, with around 68 per When asked about their greatest EES has also experienced chronic cent of the total sample reporting a security concerns, respondents in food insecurity, a lack of basic services, willingness to give up their firearms, Torit and Ikotos cited cattle rustling, and few economic opportunities. Cattle and 63 per cent anticipating that natural threats (primarily drought), rustling, armed robbery, and banditry disarmament would significantly and instability arising from armed are endemic. With little or no official increase security in their area. groups. Magwi county residents security presence in many areas of the However, attitudes vary consider- expressed concern about disputes state, protracted cycles of revenge ably depending on local perceptions over natural resources, followed by attacks over natural resources, and of security. land in particular, are common. The natural threats. Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), Killings—including spontaneous, which ended the civil war, did not intentional, and revenge killings— Context result in a tangible peace dividend for accounted for 40 per cent of all most EES communities; in fact, the crimes reported in the last 12 Located in the south-eastern corner of return of war-era refugees to ancestral months. Based on weighted data, Southern Sudan, EES shares borders villages and the recent arrival of inter- an estimated 5,587 households with Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda nally displaced persons (IDPs) from (± 470) in three counties experi- (see Map). Like the communities across other parts of Sudan have exacerbated enced one killing over the period. those borders, EES is populated pri- tensions over land and resources. The most frequently reported marily by agro-pastoralists who have To assess perceptions of develop- weapon used to commit a crime— long suffered from a range of devel- ment, governance, and security chal- including killings—was the AK-47 opment and governance problems, lenges in EES, the Small Arms Survey or other automatic rifle. However, including ‘a lack of basic services, and Danish Demining Group under- an equal percentage of crimes— unreliable water supplies, poor lead- took a household survey of almost including killings—were committed ership, depressed local economies, 2,400 households in Torit, Magwi, and with no weapon at all. insufficient responses to drought, Ikotos counties in November and Almost 40 per cent (38 per cent) of widespread poverty, and extremely December 2009.1 The survey gauged all surveyed households reported poor health and education’.3 Within respondent views on pressing security firearm ownership, with much the East and Horn of Africa region, and development issues, with a particu- higher rates in Ikotos (63 per cent) EES is noticeably prone to conflict, lar focus on armed violence; victims and Torit households (53 per cent) which is exacerbated by a culture of and perpetrators; motivations; weapons; than in Magwi (15 per cent). Based cattle rustling and widespread access disarmament; and security providers.2 on these responses, an estimated to and use of firearms.4 Governments www.smallarmssurveysudan.org 1 Eastern Equatoria State E Bor T Khartoum JONGLEI H I SU DA N O P W SUD AN h I i t e A N i l e K a p o e t a N o r t h K a p o e t a L a f o n E a s t CENTRAL EAS T E R N EQ UA T ORI A EQUUAATTOORIA Lafon Kapoeta Juba Kapoeta South Ilemi Triangle (disputed territory) Narus To r i t B u d i A Surveyed counties Torit Y International boundary Chukudum N State boundary Magwi Palataka E County boundary Gilo Ikotos M a g w i Upper Main roads Talanga I k o t o s K Pageri Parajok State capital Loa A Main towns NimNimuleule D 0 km 50 Other towns U G A N have periodically attempted to ‘pacify’ militarizing pastoralists and increas- was not possible to sample from every these marginalized communities using ing their reliance on weapons in inter- county; Magwi, Torit, and Ikotos coun- aggressive, militarized tactics—includ- communal conflicts. ties were considered representative of ing forcible disarmament—generally EES was also deeply affected by the south-western region of the state. without addressing underlying griev- the presence of the notorious Ugandan In this study, 2,392 households were ances or improving access to services. rebel group the Lord’s Resistance Army surveyed, with one individual queried Livelihoods in EES consist of sub- (LRA). The LRA entered Sudan in per household. The sample included sistence agriculture (mainly sorghum 1991 and by 1994 was an organized 1,186 men and 1,201 women, achieving and millet) and livestock, and to a lesser proxy force on the government side intended gender parity between the extent fishing, natural resource exploi- against the SPLA and its allies. Its ages of 14 and 98. Respondents came tation, and mining and trade.5 Very few brutal operations isolated the region from the Latuka (30 per cent), Acholi alternative opportunities exist. The from humanitarian assistance; thou- (23 per cent), Madi (21 per cent), Lango region is beset by chronic insecurity, sands fled the force’s almost daily (20 per cent), and other clans (6 per a lack of tenure rights, a total lack of ambushes and abductions, often of cent). The survey methodology and infrastructure, and the absence of a children.8 For part of the latter phase sampling frame is outlined in Box 1. legal framework or institutions to en- of the civil war, the LRA effectively The survey reveals that sources of courage investment. Among the vast controlled Magwi county, among other insecurity and violent conflict in the majority of the population, chronic areas, and terrorized its communities.9 three counties are multi-faceted and poverty is the norm.6 The effect of the LRA’s domination complex. Respondents reported wide- The state is also home to a number differentiates Magwi from both Torit ly different causes, frequencies, and of IDPs and a large number of returnees and Ikotos. types of violent crimes. In particular, who had fled the violence and insecu- there were clear distinctions between rity of the civil war. It experienced Magwi’s security environment and regular aerial bombardments, attacks those of Torit and Ikotos. For this reason, by ground forces, and protracted fight- About the survey Magwi is considered separately. ing not only between the SAF and the In November and December 2009, SPLA, but also involving armed mili- the Small Arms Survey and Danish tia, such as the Equatorian Defence Demining Group undertook a house- Crime and violence in Torit Forces (EDF), EDF II, Boya Forces, hold survey to gauge community per- Didinga Forces, Lafon Forces, and spectives on pressing security and and Ikotos Toposa and Mundari militias.7 Arms development concerns.10 Due to EES’s Almost one-third of both Torit (28 per from both armies flowed to the region, large area, covering over 85,000 km2, it cent) and Ikotos (31 per cent) house- 2 Sudan Issue Brief Number 16 April 2010 Box 1 Survey methodology and analysis hold members reported incidents of crime and armed violence against one Sampling of their household members in the last Data from the Southern Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (SSRRC) and UN planning figures pro- 12 months. Killings—including spon- duced a population of 354,215 in the counties of Torit, Ikotos, and Magwi, composed of 64,520 households taneous, intentional, and revenge killings—were the most commonly with an average of 5.49 members. Magwi county contained an estimated 30,934 households (48 per cent of reported crime across all counties sur- the entire sample), Torit county 18,168 households (28 per cent), and Ikotos 15,418 households (24 per cent). veyed, accounting for 42 per cent of Using a confidence level of 95 per cent and a confidence interval of 2, two-staged sample size calculations all reported crimes in Torit and 47 per yielded a sample size of 2,315 households. cent in Ikotos (see Figure 1). Assault, Populations were grouped according to socio-economic status, experience of violent events, and ethnic beating, fighting, and shooting (com- membership. Ethnicity was defined according to tribal (clan) membership and language spoken.