UCLA UCLA Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Continuity or Change? Contextualizing the Role of Polarization and Racial Attitudes in the Trump Era Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2gx7g517 Author Goldstein, Lauren Michelle Publication Date 2020 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Continuity or Change? Contextualizing the Role of Polarization and Racial Attitudes in the Trump Era A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology by Lauren Goldstein 2020 © Copyright by Lauren Goldstein 2020 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Continuity or Change? Contextualizing the Role of Polarization and Racial Attitudes in the Trump Era by Lauren Goldstein University of California, Los Angeles, 2020 Professor David O. Sears, Chair Donald Trump is commonly believed to deviate from traditional Republican norms and ideals, both in terms of his policy platform as well as his boorish, often explicitly racist personal conduct. These claims have come from media and from Republican Party elites, both past and present. But was his outsider status, in terms of lack of prior political experience, unorthodox policy positions, as well as personal style, reflected by marked shifts in public opinion? Were Trump voters motivated by a new set of predispositions compared to prior Republican voters? In this dissertation, I argue that Trump is better interpreted as a continuation of preexisting Republican trends than as a rogue outsider who capitalized on a wholly distinct electorate motivated by a unique profile of attitudes and preferences. Rather, I argue, Trump is best interpreted as a continuation of Obama era trends. In Chapter One, I trace the legacy of polarization and racial attitudes in modern American politics. In Chapter Two, I trace the waning of the New Deal coalitions from 1980 to 2016, examining the demographic profiles of support ii for Trump and contextualizing them as trends that predated his campaign. Chapter Three, I assess whether Trump benefited from a different set of predispositions among the mass public relative to his predecessors in the prior four elections—specifically, those related to racial attitudes and political polarization. In Chapter Four, I assess how two difference indices of racial attitudes, one that emphasizes outgroup animosity (racial resentment) and one that incorporates ingroup solidarity (ethnocentrism) impact presidential approval, in order to assess whether both exert equal and similar influence on white voters’ presidential approval over the last 5 cycles. In Chapter Five, I assess the extent to which, should we see shifts over time in the nature and influence of racial attitudes among white voters over this period of time, these shifts can be traced to white Republicans becoming increasingly racially conservative during the dawning of the Trump era, or whether it is white racial liberals who are driving the divergence of public opinion. Ultimately, I argue, Trump inherited a highly racialized landscape; he did not introduce racial attitudes into an otherwise racially harmonious and civil landscape and disrupt the status quo, nor did he capitalize on a wholly new set of racist predispositions among the white electorate. iii The dissertation of Lauren Goldstein is approved. Kerri Johnson Efren Osvaldo Perez Matthew Alejandro Barreto David O. Sears, Committee Chair University of California, Los Angeles 2020 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES…………………………………………………………......vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS…………………..………………………….……………………….viii CURRICULUM VITAE…………………..………………………….………………………......ix CHAPTER ONE……………..…………………………………………………………......…......1 CHAPTER TWO.……………..…………………………………………………………........…23 CHAPTER THREE…….…..………………………………………………………...........….…34 CHAPTER FOUR……………..…………………………………………………………...........59 CHAPTER FIVE.……………..………………………………………………………........…....73 CHAPTER SIX...………………..……………………………………………………………....96 APPENDIX…………………..…………………………......……………………………..……111 REFERENCES……….......…..………………………………………………………..…….....132 v LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES CHAPTER TWO Figure 2.1 White Evangelicals and Two-Party Vote Share, 1980-2016 …………………….......25 Figure 2.2 Income, Education, and Two-Party Vote Share, 1980-2016 .......................................27 Figure 2.3 Gender, Education, and Two-Party Vote Share, 1980-2016 .......................................29 Table 2.1 Proportion of Vote Switchers by Gender and Education, 2008-2016 .. .......................31 CHAPTER THREE Table 3.1 Correlations of Ethnocentrism with Polarization and Partisanship ………………….47 Figure 3.1 Ethnocentrism by Republican Presidential Voting Across Years …………………..48 Figure 3.2 Marginal Effects of Ethnocentrism on Predicted Probability of Voting Republican..50 Figure 3.3 Divisions over Issue Positions Across Years: The Economy ……………………….51 Figure 3.4 Divisions over Issue Positions Across Years: Immigration………………………….52 Figure 3.5 Ethnocentrism by Voting for Eventual GOP Nominees in Primaries, 2008-2016…..54 Figure 3.6. Marginal Effects of Ethnocentrism on Primary Voting …….....................................55 Figure 3.7 Polarization by Voting for Eventual GOP Nominees in Primaries, 2008-2016..........56 Figure 3.8. Marginal Effects of Polarization on Primary Voting……..........................................57 CHAPTER FOUR Figure 4.1 Marginal Effect of Ethnocentrism on General Presidential Approval ………………65 Figure 4.2 Marginal Effect of Ethnocentrism on Economic Presidential Approval…………….66 Figure 4.3 Marginal Effect of Ethnocentrism on Foreign Relations Presidential Approval ……67 Figure 4.4 Marginal Effect of Racial Resentment on General Presidential Approval ………….68 Figure 4.5 Marginal Effect of Racial Resentment on Economic Presidential Approval ………..70 Figure 4.6 Marginal Effect of Racial Resentment on Foreign Relations Presidential Approval...71 vi CHAPTER FIVE Figure 5.1 Ethnocentrism Distributions Among White Americans, 2000-2018………………78 Figure 5.2 Racial Resentment Distributions Among White Americans, 2000-2018………….80 Figure 5.3 Mean Ethnocentrism Among White Americans, 2000-2018………………………81 Table 5.1 Mean Differences in Ethnocentrism Across Years by Partisanship………………...83 Figure 5.4. Mean Racial Resentment Among White Americans, 2000-2018…………………85 Table 5.2. Mean Differences in Racial Resentment Across Years by Partisanship……….......87 Table 5.3. Proportion of White Vote Switchers vs. Party Loyalists By Year…………………91 Figure 5.5. Mean Ethnocentrism Among White Vote Switchers vs. Party Loyalists …………91 Table 5.4. Mean Differences in Ethnocentrism Across Years by Party Line Voting.................92 Figure 5.6. Mean Racial Resentment Among Party Vote Switchers vs. Party Loyalists……...93 Table 5.5. Mean Differences in Racial Resentment Across Years by Party Line Voting..........94 vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First, to David Sears, my advisor: I am so grateful that you took a chance on me. Thank you for your steady guidance, for spending so many afternoons chatting about the state of our politics with me, for your humor, your perspective, your wisdom, and your advice. Thanks as well to the rest of my committee, Efren Perez, Kerri Johnson, and Matt Barreto, for all of your generous feedback and insights along the way. To Kerri, in particular: thank you for your mentorship, generosity, and encouragement; for welcoming me into your fold, nurturing my passions, and helping me reach my goals. To the Intergroup Relations Lab, the Political Psychology Lab, and the Social Vision Lab, and in particular, to Gerald Higginbotham, Jessica Shropshire, and Tyler Reny: thank you for giving such valuable input on my ideas, for teaching me how to study them, and for helping me more times than I can count. Lastly, to my friends and family: had it not been for your support, I can say with confidence that none of this would have happened. Thank you, especially to Mom, Dad, Mark, and Nana. For absolutely everything. viii CURRICULUM VITAE Lauren Goldstein EDUCATION Doctor of Philosophy University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 2016-2020 (Expected) Major: Social Psychology Minor: Quantitative Psychology Primary Advisor: David O. Sears Certificate of Completion Stanford Summer Institute in Political Psychology August 2018 Master of Arts Columbia University Teachers College, New York, NY 2014-2016 Clinical Psychology Concentration: Research Methods Bachelor of Arts Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT 2007-2011 Major: History Minor: Psychology HONORS AND FELLOWSHIPS 2018 UCLA Graduate Student Mentorship Award ($6,000) 2017 UCLA Graduate Student Mentorship Award ($6,000) 2016-2017 UCLA Dean’s Office College of Letters and Science Fellowship ($16,500) 2016-2017 UCLA University Fellowship ($4,500) 2014-2015 Teachers College Scholarship, Columbia University Teachers College ($16,776) 2011 magna cum laude, Middlebury College 2011 High honors, Middlebury College Department of History 2007-2011 College Scholar 4 semesters, Middlebury College 2007-2011 Deans List 2 semesters, Middlebury College GRANTS 2018 UCLA Political Psychology Travel Grant ($6,000) Funding attendance at the 2018 Stanford Summer Institute of Political Psychology 2017 UCLA Political Psychology Fellowship ($400) Funding original research PUBLICATIONS Higginbotham, G., Goldstein, L.G., & Sears, D.O. (in preparation). When irresistible prejudices Meet immovable politics: Pitting anti-black attitudes against