Regional and County Population Change in North Carolina A Summary of Trends from April 1, 2010 through July 1, 2016 North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management December 2017 Introduction The following document summarizes population trends for North Carolina using the certified county population estimates produced by the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM) released in September of 2017. These certified population estimates are as of July 1, 2016.1 Additional population tables that include statistics for all 100 counties can be obtained from https://www.osbm.nc.gov/demog/county‐estimates.2 Highlights: North Carolina grew by 620,254 people between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2016, a 6.5% increase; Three of every four people added in this period were living in central North Carolina3; 95% of all growth occurred within metropolitan counties4; Among regional planning areas, only the Upper Coastal Plain Council of Governments experienced population decline; The fastest growing metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) since April 1, 2010 were the North Carolina portion of the Myrtle Beach‐Conway‐North Myrtle Beach MSA, the Raleigh MSA, the North Carolina portion of the Charlotte‐Concord‐Gastonia MSA, and the Wilmington MSA. Only the Rocky Mount MSA experienced population decline since the last census, losing 4,460 people (a 2.9% decline); The Charlotte‐Concord‐Gastonia MSA remains the largest metropolitan area in the state (at 2.1 million people); Mecklenburg (1.1 million) and Wake (1.0 million) Counties remain the largest counties in the state. These two counties each added over 125,000 between 2010 and 2016; Two‐thirds of North Carolina counties added population between 2010 and 2016; Brunswick County was the fastest growing county in the state, adding 20,319 people – a 18.9% increase; Mecklenburg, Wake and Brunswick Counties experienced the largest net migration during this period, adding 81,018, 77,315, and 21,474 net migrants, respectively; 31 counties grew as a result of both natural increase (more births than deaths) and net in‐migration (more people moving into than leaving a county); and 20 counties lost population as a result of both natural decrease (more deaths than births) and net out‐migration (more people leaving a county than moving in). 1 Population Change by Region North Carolina continues to experience population growth, but population growth is not distributed equally throughout the state. The largest population increases occurred in central North Carolina and within metropolitan counties. Between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2016, North Carolina added 620,254 people, an increase of 6.5% increase. The largest numeric and percentage increase occurred within the central portion of North Carolina (see Table 1 and Figure 1), where three of every four people added to North Carolina during this period were living. The slowest growth occurred within western North Carolina, which added 46,653 people. Ninety‐five percent of population growth during this period occurred within metropolitan counties. Over a half million people were added to metropolitan counties between 2010 and 2016. By July 1, 2016, there were 7.9 million people living in metropolitan counties in North Carolina – up from 7.3 million in 2010. At the same time, the population in non‐metropolitan counties grew by just 28,236 or 1.3 percent. By 2016, there were 2.2 million people living in non‐metropolitan areas of North Carolina. Table 1. Regional Population Change, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2016 Total Population Change No. County April 1, 2010 July 1, 2016 Numeric Percent 33 Central North Carolina 5,394,430 5,850,876 456,446 8.5 41 Eastern North Carolina 2,741,090 2,858,245 117,155 4.3 26 Western North Carolina 1,400,168 1,446,821 46,653 3.3 46 Metropolitan* 7,336,591 7,928,609 592,018 8.1 54 Non‐Metropolitan 2,199,097 2,227,333 28,236 1.3 100 State 9,535,688 10,155,942 620,254 6.5 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2016. *Metropolitan counties as defined by U.S. OMB, 2015. 1 See the technical documentation at https://www.osbm.nc.gov/demog/county‐estimates for details on the methodologies employed in the population estimates. 2 OSBM also prepares county population projections for North Carolina counties as well as standard and certified population estimates for municipalities. The data is available on the OSBM website (https://www.osbm.nc.gov/facts‐figures/demographics) or can be obtained by contacting the State Demographer, Dr. Mike Cline ([email protected] or 919‐807‐4756). 3 Three regions have been defined here for descriptive purposes only. 4 Metropolitan counties as define by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget in 2013. See the Appendix for a listing of all North Carolina Metropolitan Statistical Areas and component counties. 2 Figure 1. July 1, 2016 Population and April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016 Population Change in North Carolina Regions 3 Population Change by Planning Region All regional planning areas except one experienced population growth from 2010 to 2016 (see Table 2 and Figure 2). The Upper Coastal Plain Council of Governments in northeastern North Carolina lost 7,709 people between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2016, a 2.5 percent decrease. Slow growth of less than one percent was experienced within the Isothermal Planning and Development Commission (0.5%), Lumber River Council of Governments (0.4%), and Western Piedmont Council of Governments (0.4%). The three planning regions with the most rapid growth included: the Centralina Council of Governments (10.6%), the Triangle J Council of Governments (12.1%) and the Cape Fear Council of Governments region (11.3%). These represent two of our most urban areas of the state (the Charlotte and Raleigh‐Durham areas) and a rapidly urbanizing area (the Wilmington area). Table 3 ranks planning regions in the state according to percentage population change from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016. Table 2. Planning Region Population Change, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2016 Total Population Change Rank by April 1, July 1, Percent Planning Region 2010 2016 Numeric Percent Change Albemarle Commission 171,975 175,103 3,128 1.8 11 Cape Fear Council of Governments 420,425 467,999 47,574 11.3 2 Centralina Council of Governments 1,968,624 2,177,385 208,761 10.6 3 Eastern Carolina Council of Governments 632,997 654,635 21,638 3.4 8 High Country Council of Governments 209,965 215,071 5,106 2.4 10 Isothermal Planning and Development 231,379 232,487 1,108 0.5 13 Commission Kerr‐Tar Council of Governments 223,981 229,672 5,691 2.5 9 Land‐of‐Sky Regional Council 398,911 428,909 29,998 7.5 4 Lumber River Council of Governments 299,095 300,239 1,144 0.4 14 Mid‐Carolina Council of Governments 497,606 522,106 24,500 4.9 5 Mid‐East Commission 286,391 290,986 4,595 1.6 12 Piedmont Triad Council of Governments 1,640,858 1,701,154 60,296 3.7 7 Southwestern Commission 194,099 202,990 8,891 4.6 6 Triangle J Council of Governments 1,683,230 1,887,213 203,983 12.1 1 Upper Coastal Plain Council of Governments 310,338 302,629 ‐7,709 ‐2.5 16 Western Piedmont Council of Governments 365,814 367,364 1,550 0.4 15 State 9,535,688 10,155,942 620,254 6.5 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2016. 4 Figure 2. April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016 Population Change in North Carolina Planning Regions 5 Population Change by Metropolitan Statistical Area The fastest growing metropolitan areas were in recreational destinations along the coast and within the most urbanized areas in the central Piedmont (see Table 3). Brunswick County, which is part of the Myrtle Beach metropolitan area, had the fastest growth among North Carolina metropolitan areas at 18.9 percent (or 20,319 people). This was followed by the Raleigh metropolitan area at 13.4 percent (or 151,174 people). The Wilmington metropolitan area (adjacent to Brunswick County) and the Charlotte metropolitan areas were tied for the third fastest growth during this period (at 11.1 percent growth). Wilmington (consisting of New Hanover and Pender counties) added 28,184 people while the North Carolina counties of the Charlotte‐Concord‐Gastonia MSA added 208,898 people between 2010 and 2016. Among all metropolitan statistical areas, only Rocky Mount saw population decline during this period. Table 3. Population Change in Metropolitan Areas by Percentage Change, April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2016 Total Population Change Rank Metropolitan Statistical Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2016 Numeric Percent 1 Myrtle Beach‐Conway‐North Myrtle Beach (NC) 107,431 127,750 20,319 18.9 2 Raleigh 1,130,479 1,281,653 151,174 13.4 3 Charlotte‐Concord‐Gastonia (NC) 1,881,108 2,090,006 208,898 11.1 3 Wilmington 254,883 283,067 28,184 11.1 5 Durham‐Chapel Hill 506,646 555,387 48,741 9.6 6 Jacksonville 177,787 193,914 16,127 9.1 7 Asheville 424,853 456,541 31,688 7.5 8 Virginia Beach‐Newport News (NC) 35,733 37,992 2,259 6.3 9 Burlington 151,144 159,054 7,910 5.2 10 Greenville 168,152 175,885 7,733 4.6 11 Greensboro‐High Point 723,854 755,832 31,978 4.4 12 Fayetteville 366,311 382,038 15,727 4.3 13 Winston‐Salem 640,580 661,968 21,388 3.3 14 Goldsboro 122,638 124,808 2,170 1.8 15 New Bern 126,795 127,427 632 0.5 16 Hickory‐Lenoir‐Morganton 365,814 367,364 1,550 0.4 17 Rocky Mount 152,383 147,923 ‐4,460 ‐2.9 Metropolitan 7,336,591 7,928,609 592,018 8.1 Non‐Metropolitan 2,199,097 2,227,333 28,236 1.3 State 9,535,688 10,155,942 620,254 6.5 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2016.