The Governor’s Economic and Demographic Report 2006-2007 Kansas Division of the Budget January 2007 Acknowledgements The Governor’s Economic and Demographic Report 2006-2007 was prepared under the general direction of Duane A. Goossen, Director of the Budget. This report was written by Dr. John D. Wong, Professor of Public Administration, Hugo Wall School of Urban and Public Affairs, Wichita State University and Ann H. Durkes, Principal Budget Analyst/Tax Policy and Demographics, Division of the Budget. Publication coordination and editing were provided by Louis S. Chabira, Deputy Director; Ann H. Durkes, Principal Budget Analyst/Tax Policy and Demographics; Jeff Arpin, Principal Budget Analyst; and Shelly Dechand, Accountant. Readers of The Governor's Economic and Demographic Report can access this information on the Kansas Division of the Budget’s website at http://budget.ks.gov. Table of Contents Chapter 1 The U.S. Economy 2006 U.S. Economic Review....................................................................................................... 1 2007 U.S. Economic Outlook ...................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 2 Kansas Employment & Income Overview...................................................................................................................................... 12 Kansas Employment Review ....................................................................................................... 13 Comparative Employment in the Plains Region.......................................................................... 23 Kansas Personal Income Review................................................................................................. 26 Kansas Personal Income Estimates.............................................................................................. 27 Comparative Personal Income ..................................................................................................... 28 Chapter 3 Local & Regional Employment & Income Major Labor Market Employment ............................................................................................... 30 Kansas & Adjacent States Metro Areas’ Employment Trends.................................................... 40 Regional Labor Market Employment .......................................................................................... 42 County Personal Income.............................................................................................................. 43 The Four Urban Counties............................................................................................................. 45 Chapter 4 Kansas Demographics Overview...................................................................................................................................... 49 U.S. Census Bureau’s Methodology of Estimating State Populations......................................... 50 The Decennial Census.................................................................................................................. 51 Poverty......................................................................................................................................... 51 School District Populations.......................................................................................................... 52 Health Insurance Coverage.......................................................................................................... 53 Demographics .............................................................................................................................. 53 Kansas Population Projections..................................................................................................... 55 Appendices A Kansas Personal Income, 2004-2005 .................................................................................... 57 B State Personal Income & Growth Rates, 2002-2004............................................................. 60 C State Disposable Income & Growth Rates, 2002-2004......................................................... 62 D Kansas County Personal Income, 2004................................................................................. 64 E Kansas County Personal Income, 2005................................................................................. 67 F Kansas Certified Population, Certified to the Secretary of State on July 1, 2006................. 70 G Resident Population for U.S., Regions, States, & Kansas Counties, 2001-2005 .................. 116 H Poverty Thresholds in 2005, by Size of Family & Number of Related Children under 18 Years.................................................................. 121 I Kansas School District Populations, 2003............................................................................. 122 J Health Insurance Coverage Status & Type of Coverage for the U.S. & Kansas, 1988-2005................................................................................. 130 K Kansas Resident Population, 2000 through 2005.................................................................. 131 L Kansas Population Projections, by County, by Age Cohort for 2007-2018.......................... 135 i Table of Tables 1-1 Major U.S. Economic Trends, 2006 & 2007 ............................................................................... 1 1-2 U.S. GDP Composition & Growth, 2005-2006 ........................................................................... 3 1-3 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Growth Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted, 2005-2006 ......................................................... 4 1-4 U.S. Personal Income Growth, 2005-2006 .................................................................................. 5 1-5 U.S. Consumer Prices Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted, 2005-2006 ......................................................... 6 1-6 U.S. GDP Composition & Growth, 2006-2007 ........................................................................... 8 1-7 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Growth Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted, 2006-2007 ......................................................... 8 1-8 U.S. Personal Income Growth, 2006-2007 .................................................................................. 10 1-9 U.S. Consumer Prices Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted, 2006-2007 ......................................................... 10 2-1 Major Kansas Economic Trends.................................................................................................. 12 2-2 Kansas Employment, by Place of Residence, October 2005-October 2006 ................................ 13 2-3 Kansas Employment, by Place of Work, October 2005-October 2006 ....................................... 14 2-4 Plains Region Employment Growth Rates, 2004-2005 ............................................................... 24 2-5 Plains Region Employment Growth Rates, October 2005-October 2006.................................... 25 2-6 Kansas Personal Income, 2005 Actual, 2006 Estimate, & 2007 Forecast ................................... 27 2-7 Per Capita Personal Income, 1994-2005...................................................................................... 29 3-1 Wichita Metropolitan Area Employment..................................................................................... 31 3-2 Topeka Metropolitan Area Employment ..................................................................................... 34 3-3 Lawrence Metropolitan Area Employment.................................................................................. 36 3-4 Kansas City, KS Metropolitan Area Employment....................................................................... 37 3-5 Metropolitan Area Employment Growth Rates, Oct. 2005-Oct. 2006 ........................................ 41 3-6 County Employment, October 2005-October 2006 ..................................................................... 43 ii Table of Figures 1-1 U.S. Civilian Labor Force Growth............................................................................................... 2 1-2 U.S. Employment Growth............................................................................................................ 2 1-3 U.S. Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................................ 2 1-4 Consumer Price Index (CPI-U).................................................................................................... 3 1-5 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Growth ......................................................................................... 3 1-6 U.S. Real GDP Growth................................................................................................................ 3 1-7 U.S. Personal Income Growth ..................................................................................................... 5 1-8 U.S. Economic Indicators ............................................................................................................ 6 2-1 Kansas Civilian Labor Force Growth .......................................................................................... 13 2-2 Kansas Employment Growth by Place of Residence................................................................... 14 2-3 Kansas Unemployment Rate.......................................................................................................