Long Point Region SPA Approved Assessment Report TABLE OF CONTENTS 8.0 OVERVIEW OF THE WATER BUDGET FRAMEWORK .......................................... 8-1 9.0 TIER 2 WATER BUDGET ......................................................................................... 9-3 9.1 Surface Water Budget ............................................................................................... 9-4 9.1.1 Surface Water Budget ................................................................................. 9-4 9.2 Groundwater Budget .................................................................................................. 9-7 9.2.1 Groundwater Budget .................................................................................... 9-7 9.3 Integrated Water Budget ............................................................................................ 9-9 9.3.1 Big Otter Creek Above Maple Dell Road Subwatershed ........................... 9-13 9.3.2 Otter Creek at Otterville Subwatershed ..................................................... 9-13 9.3.3 Spittler Creek Subwatershed ..................................................................... 9-14 9.3.4 Otter Creek at Tillsonburg Subwatershed .................................................. 9-14 9.3.5 Little Otter Creek Subwatershed ................................................................ 9-15 9.3.6 Lower Otter Creek Subwatershed.............................................................. 9-15 9.3.7 South Otter and Clear Creek Subwatersheds ............................................ 9-16 9.3.8 Big Creek Above Cement Road Subwatershed ......................................... 9-16 9.3.9 Big Creek Above Kelvin Subwatershed ..................................................... 9-17 9.3.10 Big Creek Above Delhi Subwatershed ....................................................... 9-17 9.3.11 North Creek Subwatershed........................................................................ 9-17 9.3.12 Big Creek Above Minnow Creek Subwatershed ........................................ 9-18 9.3.13 Big Creek Above Walsingham Subwatershed ........................................... 9-18 9.3.14 Venison Creek Subwatershed ................................................................... 9-19 9.3.15 Lower Big Creek Subwatershed ................................................................ 9-19 9.3.16 Dedrick Creek and Young/Hay Creeks Subwatersheds ............................ 9-20 9.3.17 Lynn River Subwatershed .......................................................................... 9-20 9.3.18 Black Creek Subwatershed........................................................................ 9-21 9.3.19 Upper Nanticoke Creek Subwatershed ...................................................... 9-21 9.3.20 Lower Nanticoke Creek, Sandusk Creek and Stoney Creek Subwatersheds .......................................................................................... 9-21 9.4 Interactions Between Groundwater and Surface Water .......................................... 9-22 9.5 Tier 2 Water Quantity Stress Assessment ............................................................... 9-24 9.5.1 Surface Water Stress Assessment ............................................................ 9-24 9.5.2 Groundwater Stress Assessment .............................................................. 9-27 May 20, 2020 TOC-1 Long Point Region SPA Approved Assessment Report 9.5.3 Groundwater Stress Assessment Results ................................................. 9-27 9.6 Section Summary .................................................................................................... 9-31 10.0 TIER 3 WATER BUDGET AND RISK ASSESSMENT ........................................... 10-1 10.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 10-1 10.1.1 Tier 3 Assessment Methodology................................................................ 10-2 Estimated Allocated Rates .................................................................................. 10-2 Characterization, Model Development and Calibration ....................................... 10-2 Delineate Vulnerable Areas ................................................................................ 10-2 Complete Risk Assessment ................................................................................ 10-3 Assign Risk Level to Vulnerable Area ................................................................. 10-3 Identify Drinking Water Threats ........................................................................... 10-4 10.2 Groundwater and Surface Water Characterization .................................................. 10-4 10.2.1 Topography and Physiography .................................................................. 10-4 10.2.2 Surface Water Features ............................................................................. 10-5 10.2.3 Geology and Hydrogeology ....................................................................... 10-5 Hydrogeologic Field Program .............................................................................. 10-5 Regional Characterization ................................................................................... 10-6 Local Characterization – Delhi ............................................................................ 10-7 Local Characterization – Simcoe ........................................................................ 10-7 Local Characterization – Waterford ..................................................................... 10-8 10.2.4 Water Demand and Other Water Uses ...................................................... 10-8 Municipal Water Supply Systems ........................................................................ 10-8 Non-Municipal Water Demand ............................................................................ 10-9 Other Water Uses; Coldwater Streams and Provincially Significant Wetlands ... 10-9 10.2.5 Land Use and Land Use Development .................................................... 10-10 10.3 Risk Assessment ................................................................................................... 10-19 10.3.1 Model Development ................................................................................. 10-19 Groundwater Flow Model .................................................................................. 10-19 Integrated Numerical Models ............................................................................ 10-20 10.3.2 Risk Assessment Results ........................................................................ 10-20 10.3.3 Significant Water Quantity Threats .......................................................... 10-22 10.3.4 Significant Groundwater Recharge Areas................................................ 10-22 10.4 Risk Management Measures Evaluation ............................................................... 10-29 10.5 Section Summary .................................................................................................. 10-29 May 20, 2020 TOC-2 Long Point Region SPA Approved Assessment Report LIST OF MAPS Map 9-1: Modelled Groundwater Discharge Map in the Long Point Region Watershed . 9-23 Map 9-2: Tier 2 Surface Water Stress Assessment in the Long Point Region Watershed ......................................................................................................................... 9-26 Map 9-3: Water Quantity Stress Levels by Groundwater Sub-watershed in the Long Point Region Watershed .................................................................................. 9-30 Map 10-1: Tier 3 Study and Focus Area .......................................................................... 10-12 Map 10-2: Tier 3 Focus Area - Surface Water Features .................................................. 10-13 Map 10-3: Tier 3 Focus Area - High Quality Well Locations ............................................ 10-14 Map 10-4: Tier 3 Focus Area - Shallow Groundwater Levels .......................................... 10-15 Map 10-5: Tier 3 Focus Area - Deep Groundwater Levels .............................................. 10-16 Map 10-6: Tier 3 Focus Area – Provincially Significant Wetlands & Coldwater Streams 10-17 Map 10-7: Tier 3 Focus Area – Land Use Change .......................................................... 10-18 LIST OF TABLES Table 9-1: Long Point Region Watershed Area Subwatersheds ......................................... 9-3 Table 9-2: Average Annual Water Budget (Surface Water) ................................................. 9-5 Table 9-3: Surface Water Budget (mm) ............................................................................... 9-5 Table 9-4: Surface Water Budget (m3/s) .............................................................................. 9-6 Table 9-5: Average Annual Water Budget Summary (Groundwater) .................................. 9-7 Table 9-6: Groundwater Water Budget (mm/yr) .................................................................. 9-7 Table 9-7: Groundwater Water Budget (m3/s ) .................................................................... 9-8 Table 9-8: Integrated Water Budget (mm/year) (AquaResource, 2009a,b) ....................... 9-10 Table 9-9: Integrated Water Budget (m3/s) (AquaResource, 2009a,b) .............................. 9-11 Table 9-10: Summary of Water Budget Components (AquaResource, 2009a,b)