SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME THEME 6: Environment (including Climate Change) Adaptive strategies to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems Collaborative Project (large-scale integrating project) Grant Agreement 244121 Duration: February 1st, 2010–January 31st, 2014 Deliverable 5.9 River Arbúcies biophysical modelling, final report Lead contractor: URead Other contractors involved: UB Due date of deliverable: Month 44 Actual submission date: Month 45 Work package: 5 Contributors: Martin Erlandsson, Andrew J Wade, Joan Lluís Riera Rey, Mariàngels Puig, Richard A Skeffington, Sarah J Halliday Estimated person months: 12 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT. .......................................................................................................................................................... 4 1. BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................................................. 5 1.1. SITE DESCRIPTION ............................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2. AVAILABLE FLOW AND CHEMISTRY DATA ................................................................................................................ 6 1.2.1. Catalan Water Agency (ACA) data....................................................................................................... 6 1.2.2. Font de Regas – nested catchment sampling of the Arbúcies headwaters ......................................... 7 1.2.3. Samples nearby the sewage treatment works effluent ....................................................................... 7 2. MODEL SETUP .............................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1. DEFINING SUBCATCHMENTS ................................................................................................................................ 8 2.2. METEOROLOGICAL DATA .................................................................................................................................... 9 2.3. LAND COVER CLASSES ...................................................................................................................................... 11 2.4. CROPS, FERTILISERS AND IRRIGATION .................................................................................................................. 12 2.5. STW EFFLUENT DATA ...................................................................................................................................... 14 2.6. DEPOSITION .................................................................................................................................................. 15 3. MODEL CALIBRATIONS ............................................................................................................................... 16 3.1. HYDROLOGY (PERSIST) .................................................................................................................................. 16 3.1.1. Initial data exploration ...................................................................................................................... 16 3.1.2. Model calibration............................................................................................................................... 17 3.2. NITROGEN (INCA-N WITH PERSIST) ................................................................................................................. 19 3.2.1. Initial data exploration ...................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.2. Model calibration............................................................................................................................... 20 3.3. PHOSPHORUS (INCA-P) .................................................................................................................................. 23 3.3.1. Initial data exploration ...................................................................................................................... 23 3.3.2. Model calibration............................................................................................................................... 24 3.4. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION ......................................................................................................................... 26 3.4.1. Hydrology........................................................................................................................................... 26 3.4.2. Nutrients ............................................................................................................................................ 27 4. MODEL TESTING ......................................................................................................................................... 28 4.1. METHODS ..................................................................................................................................................... 28 4.2. HYDROLOGY .................................................................................................................................................. 29 4.3. NITROGEN ..................................................................................................................................................... 29 4.4. PHOSPHORUS ................................................................................................................................................ 30 5. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................ 32 6. CLIMATE AND LAND USE SCENARIOS .......................................................................................................... 33 6.1. METEOROLOGICAL DATA .................................................................................................................................. 33 6.2. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN BASELINE AND CONTROL PERIODS ....................................................................................... 35 7. LAND USE SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................................ 36 7.1. SCENARIO DECRIPTIONS ................................................................................................................................... 36 7.2. LAND COVER .................................................................................................................................................. 37 7.3. FERTILISERS AND MANURE ................................................................................................................................ 37 7.4. DEPOSITION .................................................................................................................................................. 38 7.5. STW EFFLUENT .............................................................................................................................................. 39 7.6. ABSTRACTION ................................................................................................................................................ 40 8. RESULTS FROM CLIMATE SCENARIOS ......................................................................................................... 40 8.1. HYDROLOGY .................................................................................................................................................. 40 8.2. NITROGEN ..................................................................................................................................................... 43 8.3. PHOSPHORUS ................................................................................................................................................ 44 9. RESULTS FROM LAND USE SCENARIOS ....................................................................................................... 46 2 9.1. HYDROLOGY .................................................................................................................................................. 46 9.2. NITROGEN ..................................................................................................................................................... 46 9.3. PHOSPHORUS ................................................................................................................................................ 48 10. ASSESSMENT OF MACROINVERTEBRATE STATUS .................................................................... 49 10.1. SAMPLING PROCEDURE AND SITES ............................................................................................................ 49 10.2. MACROINVERTEBRATE INDICES ............................................................................................................... 50 10.3. SITE DESCRIPTIONS AND ECOLOGICAL CLASSIFICATION ........................................................................... 52 10.4. MACROINVERTEBRATE RELATIONSHIPS WITH PHYSIOCHEMICAL VARIABLES ........................................... 54 10.5. ANTICIPATED CLIMATE AND LAND USE EFFECTS ON MACROINVERTEBRATES ........................................... 56 11. CONCLUSIONS .........................................................................................................................................