CHINA-CEE INSTITUTE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK AFTER THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC Editor in Chief: Dr. Chen Xin Published by: China-CEE Institute Nonprofit Ltd. Telephone: +36-1-5858-690 E-mail: [email protected] Webpage: www.china-cee.eu Address: 1052, Budapest, Petőfi Sándor utca 11. Chief Editor: Dr. Chen Xin ISSN: 978-615-6124-29-6 Cover design: PONT co.lab Copyright: China-CEE Institute Nonprofit Ltd. The reproduction of the study or parts of the study are prohibited. The findings of the study may only be cited if the source is acknowledged. Central and Eastern Europe Development Outlook after the Coronavirus Pandemic Chief Editor: Dr. Chen Xin CHINA-CEE INSTITUTE Budapest, October 2020 Content Preface ............................................................................................................ 5 Part I POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK ..................................... 7 Albanian politics in post-pandemic era: reshuffling influence and preparing for the next elections .............................................................................................. 8 BiH political outlook after the COVID-19 pandemic ...................................... 13 Bulgarian Political Development Outlook in Post-Pandemic Era ..................... 18 Forecast of Croatian Political Events after the COVID-19 .............................. 25 Czech Political Outlook for the Post-Crisis Period .......................................... 30 Estonian political outlook after the pandemic: Are we there yet? .................... 35 Greek Politics after COVID-19....................................................................... 40 Hungarian Politics: An Outlook after the Coronavirus Pandemic .................... 45 Prospects of Latvian political development in 2020 ........................................ 50 Post-COVID Lithuanian Politics Focusing on the Welfare State and the Nation- Building ......................................................................................................... 55 Montenegro Political Outlook after COVID-19 .............................................. 61 Macedonian Politics in the Context of the Global Pandemic and its Aftermath 66 Impact of Pandemic on Polish Political Situation: The Issue of Presidential Elections ........................................................................................................ 71 Romanian Political Outlook for the Second Half of 2020 ................................ 76 Serbian Political Outlook in Post-COVID-19 Era ........................................... 81 1 The Most Important Political Events Awaiting Slovakia after the Coronavirus Pandemic ....................................................................................................... 85 Slovenian Politics and the New Janša Government after Coronacrisis ............. 90 Part II ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK ................................. 95 Post-pandemic Albania: What to Expect in Economic Terms .......................... 96 BiH Economy Outlook after the Coronavirus Pandemic................................ 101 Bulgarian Economic Development Outlook after the COVID-19 .................. 107 Forecast of Croatian Economy after the Coronavirus Crisis .......................... 114 Czech Economic Outlook for the Post-Crisis Period ..................................... 119 Estonian Economic Outlook after the Pandemic............................................ 124 Perspectives for the Greek Economy ............................................................ 130 Hungarian Economic Outlook after the Coronavirus ..................................... 135 Prospects of Latvian Economy under the Impact of the COVID-19 ............... 140 Lithuanian Economic Outlook after COVID-19 ............................................ 145 Montenegro Economic Outlook after the Pandemic ...................................... 150 Macedonian Economic Outlook in the Context of the Corona Pandemic ....... 155 Projections of Poland’s Economic Situation in the Coming Months .............. 160 Romanian Economic Outlook after the Pandemic ......................................... 165 Economic Forecasts after the COVID-19 Pandemic in Serbia ....................... 170 New Economic Outlook for Slovakia............................................................ 175 The Rating Agency S&P confirmed Slovenia's credit rating: AA- and Stable Outlook for Post-Corona Times .................................................................... 181 Part III SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK ..................................... 187 2 What to Expect Ahead? Albanian Society and Multiplied Challenges ........... 188 BiH Social Development Outlook................................................................. 193 Bulgarian Social Development Outlook after the Outbreak of the COVID-19 Pandemic ..................................................................................................... 198 The Prediction of COVID-19 Implications on the Social Situation in Croatia 203 Czech Republic Social Outlook for the Post-Crisis Period ............................ 208 Estonian Social Outlook after the Pandemic: Jaanipäev and History ............. 213 Greeks Concerned about the Future .............................................................. 219 Labor Market Prospects in Hungary: An Outlook ......................................... 224 Latvian Social Development Outlook: Qualitative Healthcare Services and Social Innovation ......................................................................................... 229 The Outlook of Lithuania’s Societal Development with the Focus on Increased Social Controls ............................................................................................. 235 COVID-19 Pandemic Impact on Montenegrin Society: An Outlook.............. 241 Macedonian Disruptions and Improvised Solutions in a Fractured Educational System ......................................................................................................... 246 Social Consequences of the Coronavirus Pandemic in Poland ....................... 251 Romanian Social Development Outlook in the Post-Pandemic Era................ 256 Serbian Social Life after (with) Coronavirus: Age of Uncertainty ................. 261 Slovakian Social Development in the Corona-Crisis: An Outlook ................. 266 Outlook for Slovenian Education during the First and Consequent Waves of the Covid-19 Pandemic ...................................................................................... 271 Part IV OUTLOOK FOR EXTERNAL RELATIONS ............................. 276 Albania Foreign Policy Post-COVID: Expectations and Prospects ................ 277 3 BiH External Relations Outlook in Post-Pandemic Era ................................. 283 Outlook for the Bulgarian International Relations in Post-Pandemic Era ....... 288 The Next Steps in Croatian Foreign Policy after the COVID-19 Relief ......... 294 Czech External Relations Outlook for the Post-Crisis Period ........................ 299 External Relations Outlook after the Pandemic: A New Beginning?.............. 304 Greek-Turkish Relations and the Risk of a Military Accident ....................... 309 Hungarian Foreign Policy Outlook in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Pandemic ..................................................................................................... 314 Latvia and Its Integration in Baltics and EU in the Post-Pandemic Era .......... 319 Outlook of Lithuania’s Foreign Policy Directions after the COVID-19 Crisis 324 Montenegro External Relations Outlook ....................................................... 330 Germany’s Presidency of the Council of the EU: Implications for EU- Macedonian Relations in Times of Covid-19 ................................................ 335 Polish Foreign Policy after the Coronavirus .................................................. 340 Outlook for Romanian External Relations..................................................... 345 Serbian Foreign Policy Outlook in the Post-Pandemic Era ............................ 350 Slovakian External Relations Development Outlook after the Coronavirus Pandemic ..................................................................................................... 356 Slovenia and Reopening Europe's Internal Borders: An Outlook ................... 360 4 Preface The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted great impact on both national policies and international relations and will continue to influence various aspects of social life. Due to the sudden emergence of this pandemic, the original national plans and policies, which were made by the end of 2019 and at the beginning of 2020, do not have much reference value. In response to this problem, the China-CEE Institute associate researchers have made great efforts to re-view and re-evaluate the CEEC national development outlook in the context of the coronavirus crisis. This edited book is providing a brief analysis on the development outlook of Central and Eastern European countries against the backdrop of the pandemic and the attendant uncertainties. The book is structured from four different perspectives on the subject: domestic politics, economic situation, social development and external relations. The book is based on a collection of reports by the associate researchers of the China-CEE Institute. The reports are originally from the June issue of the 2020 Weekly Briefings, a core product by the China-CEE Institute. The views in the book are