The Atlantic Railway Corridor THE GALWAY–MAYO RAIL LINK AN APPRAISAL DR JOHN BRADLEY Cover images, clockwise from Top Left: Passengers boarding Galway Train at Limerick (N. Dinnen) InterCity Railcar at Athenry (N. Enright) Passengers alighting at Oranmore WRC Station (N. Dinnen) IWT freightliner crosses Moy bridge en route to Dublin (N. Enright) Passengers alighting at Oranmore WRC Station (N. Dinnen) The Atlantic Railway Corridor THE GALWAY–MAYO RAIL LINK AN APPRAISAL DR JOHN BRADLEY 1 The Atlantic Railway Corridor: An appraisal TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION 4 OVERVIEW OF KEY FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 The structure of the report 10 Summary of the cost benefit analysis results 11 Comparison to EY CBA 14 Policy implications 16 SECTION 1: GENERAL INTRODUCTION 20 SECTION 2: HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF THE WESTERN RAIL CORRIDOR 26 2.1 Roads, harbours and early regional development 28 2.2 The arrival of the Railways 30 2.3 The Western Rail Corridor 31 2.4 The Athenry-Claremorris Section 32 2.5 Trading Challenges for the A&TR 34 2.6 The WRC and the CIÉ era 36 SECTION 3: LIMERICK-GALWAY PHASE 1 OF THE WESTERN RAIL CORRIDOR 40 3.1 Background 42 3.2 Reopening 42 3.3 Measuring Passenger Numbers 45 3.4 Passenger Numbers on Phase 1 of the WRC 2010-2019 46 3.5 Observations on the Delivery and Scale of Services provided on Phase 1 50 3.6 Further Development of the Limerick-Galway Route 53 SECTION 4: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RATIONALE FOR THE WESTERN RAIL CORRIDOR 54 4.1 Introduction 56 4.2 The Iarnród Éireann Consulting Brief prepared for EY 57 4.3 The economy of the central AEC region 60 4.4 Development strategy for the central AEC region 66 4.5 The WRC in a development context: the N&WRA RSES 70 2 SECTION 5: PROJECT CAPITAL AND OPERATIONAL COSTS 76 5.1 Introduction 78 5.2 Phases 2 and 3: The Rail Infrastructure 79 5.3 The restoration task 88 5.4 Capital costs of Phase 2 and 3 restoration 92 5.5 Comparative capital expenditures for the Phase 2 and 3 restoration 99 5.6 Operational costs 100 5.7 Opportunity cost 103 SECTION 6: PROJECT BENEFITS 104 6.1 Introduction 106 6.2 Passenger revenue 107 6.3 Noise benefits 114 6.4 Local Air Quality benefits 115 6.5 Greenhouse Gas benefits 120 6.6 Physical Activity benefits 122 6.7 Collision benefits 124 6.8 Net Transport User benefits - Time Savings Benefits 126 6.9 Net Transport User benefits - Travel Cost Benefits 128 6.10 Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues) 130 6.11 Project Benefits Conclusion 132 SECTION 7: RAIL FREIGHT 134 7.1 Introduction 136 7.2 Rail Freight Today 140 7.3 Rail Freight Performance 141 7.4 The WRC as part of the Irish rail freight network 146 7.5 Rail Freight Summary 153 SECTION 8: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATION 156 8.1 Introduction 158 8.2 The Project Appraisal Balance Sheet 160 8.3 Cost-benefit analysis 163 8.4 Comparison with EY CBA 166 8.5 Sensitivity analysis 169 8.6 Policy implications of the CBA 171 APPENDICES 176 Appendix 1: Request for Background EY Data 176 Appendix 2: Permanent Rail Engineering Cost Review 182 Appendix 3: A socio-economic profile of Tuam 190 Appendix 4: Case Study: Bus and Rail Travel Time Comparison 204 Appendix 5: Complete WRC Phase 2 and 3 Cost-Benefit Analysis Results - Base Case 210 3 The Atlantic Railway Corridor: An appraisal 4 TIOMNÚ Tiomnaítear an tuairisc seo ar athchóiriú Bhealach Iarnróid an Iarthair agus Chonair Iarnróid an Atlantaigh i gcoitinne, don Dr. Micheál Mac Gréil, SJ, ar ócáid a nóchadú breithlá. Le blianta fada tá dua agus dúthracht caite aige chun forbairt eacnamaíoch agus shóisialta Iarthar na hÉireann a chur chun cinn. Ba údar misnigh riamh é do ghlúnta de ghníomhaithe pobail ar fud Éireann a theachtaireacht go bhféadfaí forbairt fhuinniúil, inbhuanaithe agus mhorálta a bhaint amach in ár gceantair tuaithe uilig. Fear sármhisniúil agus sárfhuinniúil é an Dr. Mac Gréil. Anuas ar a chuid dualgaisí tréadacha is liosta le háireamh iad na tionscnaíochta pobail atá curtha chun cinn aige, idir chur chun cinn an iarnróid trasghathaigh idir Luimneach agus Sligeach, a staidéar ar thionscnaíochta turasóireachta i gCathair na Mart agus athbhunú oilithreacht agus scrín stairiúil Mhám Éan. Tugtar ómós don Ath. Mac Gréil mar fhear misniúil agus físiúil. Ní mór dúinn an fhís sin a fhíorú. 5 The Atlantic Railway Corridor: An appraisal OVERVIEW OF KEY FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR PHASES 2 AND 3 RESTORATION OF THE WESTERN RAIL CORRIDOR Capital Costs (undiscounted, ex. VAT)) Total Passengers 1 €153.8m (excluding SPPF ) 575k p.a. (2030) Including 23k Tourist Journeys p.a. €199.9m (including SPPF) Operating Costs Ticket Revenue €3.3m p.a. (2030) €2.6m p.a. (2030) Including 23k Tourist Journeys p.a. Net Present Value (NPV) Passenger Time Savings €46.1m (excluding SPPF) 139k hrs p.a. (2030) €7.6m (including SPPF) Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) Passenger Travel Cost & Other Savings 1.26 (excluding SPPF) €7.7m p.a. (2030) 1.04 (including SPPF) Additional Funding Needed Reduced Road Transport €0.7m p.a. (2030) 5.5m km p.a. (2030, passengers) 2.8m km p.a. (2030, HGVs) Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Benefits Road Safety & Physical Activity Benefits –€0.1m p.a. €0.3m p.a. (2030) (2030, Legacy Rolling Stock)2 €0m p.a. (2030, New Rolling Stock) +€0.2m p.a. (2030, Electrification) KEY FINDINGS A COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF REACTIVATING PHASES 2 & 3 OF THE WESTERN RAIL CORRIDOR (WRC) YIELDS A POSITIVE NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) AND BENEFIT-TO-COST RATIO OF >1.0. WHEN ADDITIONAL NON-MONETISED BENEFITS OF A PROJECT APPRAISAL ARE CONSIDERED, A STRONG BUSINESS CASE EXISTS TO CARRY OUT THE PROJECT. 1 Shadow Price of Public Funds 2 Value Used in CBA 6 7 The Atlantic Railway Corridor: An appraisal INTERCITY RAILCAR AT ATHENRY (N. ENRIGHT) 8 Executive Summary 9 The Atlantic Railway Corridor: An appraisal EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this report is to address two main issues. The first arises out of the conclusions of the EY Report published in January, 2021, entitled Western Rail Corridor: Financial and Economic Appraisal. The second arises out of the need to correct the deficiencies and errors of that report by carrying out an alternative appraisal of the restoration of the rail link between Athenry and Claremorris. The Galway-Mayo rail link forms an integral part of the Western Rail Corridor, which is the name given to the rail line that originally ran from Limerick in the south, via Galway and northwards to Sligo. It is a key element of what might be better described as the Atlantic Railway Corridor (or ARC), a rail link that starts at Rosslare Europort, connects to the ports of Waterford and Cork, and continues northwards to Limerick city and the port of Foynes. In the present report the main focus is on the restoration of an element of that wider ARC, namely the part of the WRC linking Athenry (on the Dublin-Galway east-west InterCity line) to Claremorris (on the Dublin-Westport/Ballina east-west line). However, the implications for the entire ARC need to be kept in mind since the full network benefits will only be achieved when the entire ARC is restored and in operation. THE STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT This report consists of eight sections. After a general introduction inSection 1, Section 2 sets out as background information an historical account of the origins and subsequent history of the Western Rail Corridor. The underutilisation of the rail link that eventually led to its closure came about as a result of a systemic social and economic decline in the west rather than as a consequence of any specific or intrinsic failing of the line itself. A better understanding of these historical factors will assist in the re-evaluation of the future role for the rail link as part of the economy of the Northern and Western region of the country in the 21st century, and as a driver of growth and transformation. In Section 3 we describe the process that led to the restoration of the rail link between Limerick city and Galway city. At the initiative of government, the McCann Report of 2005 had provided a detailed costing of the restoration of the complete WRC, extending all the way from Limerick to Sligo.1 In the event, only Phase 1 was restored, the detailed costs of which were set out in a report prepared for Iarnród Éireann by Faber Maunsell.2 A description of the restoration process is provided, together with a review of the subsequent operational performance of the line which restored the direct inter-city rail link between Limerick city and Galway city. An important motivation for Phase 1 of the WRC restoration had been that it provided a direct inter-city link between Ireland’s third and fourth largest cities. However, the rationale for restoring Phases 2 and 3 of the WRC is different from the rationale for restoring Phase 1. Section 4 sets out such a rationale, based on the need to link the relatively small towns of the north- west region more effectively to each other, thus creating agglomeration effects that cannot be achieved based on any single large metropolitan region or the linking of large metropolitan regions. This is the first of three crucial elements that serve to determine the viability of the Phase 2 and 3 WRC restoration and the cost/benefit side of the financial appraisal.