Background Report VII: September 5, 2017 - April 30, 2018 Post-ISIS States By Dr. Gina Lennox Kurdish Lobby Australia Email: [email protected] Website: www.kurdishlobbyaustralia.com ©2018 Kurdish Lobby Australia You are welcome to share this report but please do not make changes without permission from Kurdish Lobby Australia. 1 Table of Contents Table of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 3 Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5 Why what is happening in the Middle East is relevant to Australia .......................... 9 What the Australian Government Can Do ........................................................................... 9 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 10 ISIS................................................................................................................................................... 10 Cost of War ................................................................................................................................... 11 Reconciliation and Reconstruction ..................................................................................... 14 FULL REPORT .................................................................................................................... 17 Iraq ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 17 ISIS................................................................................................................................................... 17 Iraqi Elections, May 12 ............................................................................................................ 19 Justice ............................................................................................................................................. 23 Reconstruction ........................................................................................................................... 25 Consequences of the Kurdistan Region’s Referendum on Independence ............. 26 Ways forward .............................................................................................................................. 35 Syria ...................................................................................................................................... 36 Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 36 War against ISIS ......................................................................................................................... 39 Raqqa ........................................................................................................................................................ 40 Deir Ezzor ............................................................................................................................................... 42 US announcements regarding its presence in Syria ............................................................. 47 Democratic Federation of Northern Syria ................................................................................ 49 ISIS in Hama, Homs, Idlib and Damascus .................................................................................. 51 Turkey’s invasion of Afrin ...................................................................................................... 52 Turkey’s offensives beyond Afrin ........................................................................................ 56 Civil War ........................................................................................................................................ 59 Eastern Ghouta, an alleged Chemical Attack, and the Response ..................................... 61 Idlib ........................................................................................................................................................... 65 Israel in Syria .............................................................................................................................. 70 Political Negotiations ............................................................................................................... 72 Reconstruction ........................................................................................................................... 76 Ways forward .............................................................................................................................. 78 Turkey ................................................................................................................................. 80 Conditions in Turkey in the lead up to elections, June 24 .......................................... 80 Armed conflict between the Turkish state and PKK ..................................................... 89 Are PKK terrorists? ................................................................................................................... 92 Turkey’s International Relations ......................................................................................... 93 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 103 Iran ..................................................................................................................................... 104 Overview .................................................................................................................................... 104 Widespread Protests from December 28 ....................................................................... 110 Ways forward ........................................................................................................................... 114 A Final Word .................................................................................................................... 114 2 Table of Figures Figure 1: Map of who controls what territory in northern Iraq and Syria .................... 5 Figure 2: Costs of Iran’s forward defence strategy ...................................................... 13 Figure 3: Iraqi forces converging on K-1 Military Base, Kirkuk, October 16, 2017 ...... 26 Figure 4: Map of disputed areas taken by military force in October 2017 ................. 28 Figure 5: Map of Syria showing zones of influence, March 30, 2018 .......................... 37 Figure 6: Map showing the location of major oil fields in Syria before the SDF took fields in Deir Ezzor held by ISIS .................................................................................... 43 Figure 7: Turkey-backed militants walking through Afrin city, March 18, 2018 ......... 53 Figure 9: Turkish soldier and Turkey-backed militants overlooking Afrin’s central square, March 18, 2018 ............................................................................................... 54 Figure 10: Destruction of the statue of Kawa, a legendary Kurdish figure, in Afrin’s central square, March 18, 2018 ................................................................................... 54 Figure 11: Map of de-escalation zones in Syria ........................................................... 59 Figure 12: Map of Idlib and Aleppo, before Turkey’s occupation of Afrin .................. 66 Figure 13: Casualties of armed conflict between Turkish security forces and PKK, 2015 – 2018 ................................................................................................................. 90 Figure 14: Map of NATO and US’ military presence in Turkey .................................. 102 3 Acronyms Asayish Kurdish police AKP Justice and Development Party (Turkey) CHP Republican People’s Party (Turkey) DBP Democratic Regions Party (Turkey) EU European Union GoI Government of Iraq HDP People’s Democratic Party (Turkey) HPG People’s Defence Force (Armed wing of PKK) HNC High Negotiation Committee (Saudi-backed Syrian opposition) HTS Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (coalition led by Jabhat Fatah al-Sham) ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and Syria IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps JFS Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, formerly called Al-Qaida/ Al-Nusra KDP/PDK Kurdistan Democratic Party (Iraq) KDPI Kurdistan Democratic Party (Iran) KNC/ENKS Kurdish National Council (KDP-linked coalition of parties) KPC Kirkuk Provincial Council KRG Kurdistan Regional Government (Iraq) KRI Kurdistan Region of Iraq MHP Nationalist Movement Party (Turkey) MIT National Intelligence Agency (Turkey) NGO Non-government organisation OPCW Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons PKK Kurdistan Workers Party (Turkey) PMUs Popular Mobilisation Units or Hashd al-Shaabi PUK Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (Iraq) PYD Democratic Union Party (Syria) SDF Syrian Democratic Forces SDC Syrian Democratic Council SNC Syrian National Coalition (Turkey-backed opposition) SOHR Syrian Observatory of Human Rights