A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY e ~ t Public Disclosure Authorized BELIZE Economic Report Public Disclosure Authorized I/ Public Disclosure Authorized &N Public Disclosure Authorized IBRD ~7615 B~00 a8~30~ ~j8B~00 'i 8~30' OCTCJP.ER 1983 f ~ ....-....CheiUnal MEXICO i8~30 ,-"Chan I .. ~ j Chen Canseio icon *. C/wi jnw/ 8~y / M E X ICC Corozal I / 2-~ ~ S./ Lob,mIIC /Fh~5C i"i9 ~Ji San ~5I Douglas -... Progresso j ) I CA~! BEAN SEA SanAntonio COROZAL ' Yo Oronge DISTRICT / jCreek Wall' Carmel~a "s' - AMBERGRIS I8~ 00 / Augusi ( L..~ PineR~dge ~?San Pedro I Neusia& Son FeIpe ~ I Maskall Santan -. ORANGE WALK Chicago / DISTRICT r Y K (Bermud ~ Sand CC Boom/ Hill jtandng Ci / I < (Ranc a i7C30 /Dalaresj1 BELIZE Behze ~ "' Haitievitle '-. ~ 1r' ~ TURNEFFE 5 3 1 / 0 ISLANDS 7 Orange '--- 7 I DISTRIf~ V i / .*~i,4iA7~r',' t~ LS"I BELMOPAN . ~' 'It }i'ii.c del Carmen BELl ZE t~00' bC 1 C~AYO DISTRICT ,~) AliaVisia Dangriga ~ j Main Roads 6' ____________ Other Roads U National Capital 7 DISTRICT ' 0 District Capitols ) I *,R;~ersdole ki a Towns and Villages e"Se,ne Bghi *~iag'~ Piacenr~a ~ '''~ ' kind Boundaries 5 - -. International Boundaries 30 ~ Medino flank 1 ~'" KILOMETERS 9 19 2p 39 49 5,0 *1 MILESi TOLEDOHeiIgO.- DISTRICT 0-"" ~ 0 ID 20 30 USA ' Sin Aviv's Bi~ Fall / - SAPODILLACAYS ,,- .- 'C~p~ BAH-sM'-iS MEXiCO JTi~ ~ Punto Gorda JAMAICA uAirsr.aJ I I6~~G '~*'~ of H~ dc,ras I6~00 BELIZE EULC HONDURAS / s'"t - C '~ VENEZuELA IOU ~ ' SALVADOR. COLOMBiA IAF -- t '~--o 3 .' I P,,erro Care,,.' HONDuRAS ______________________________________________________ A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY BELIZE Economic Report The World Bank Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Copyright @ 1984 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. First printing February 1984 All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America World Bank Country Studies are reports originally prepared for internal use as part of the continuing analysis by the Bank of the economic and related conditions of its developing member countries and of its dialogues with the governments. Some of the reports are published informally with the least possible delay for the use of governments and the academic, business and financial, and development commu- nities. Thus, the typescript has not been prepared in accordance with the proce- dures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsi- bility for errors. The publication is supplied at a token charge to defray part of the cost of manufacture and distribution. Any maps used have been prepared solely for the convenience of the readers; the denominations used and the boundaries shown do not imply, on the part of the World Bank and its affiliates, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The full range of World Bank publications is described in the Catalog of World Bank Publications; the continuing research program of the Bank is outlined in World Bank Research Program: Abstracts of Current Studies. Both booklets are updated annu- ally; the most recent edition of each is available without charge from World Bank Publications in either Washington or Paris (see the back cover for addresses). Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: Belize, economic report. (A World Bank country study) 1. Belize--Economic conditions. 2. Belize--Economic policy. 3. Belize--Foreign economic relations. I. World Bank. II. Series. H1C142.B45 1984 330.97282'052 83-25970 ISBN 0-8213-0308-2 - 111 - PREFACE AND ABSTRACT This report is based on the findings of an economic mission to Belize during November 1982. The mission consisted of: Carlos Elbirt, Chief (IBRD), Joe Eory (IBRD), Jorge Garcia Garcia (Consultant), Allan Slusher (CDB), Vilay Soulatha (IBRD), and Dolores Velasco (IBRD). The report has four main objectives. First, description of the economy of Belize. Second, analysis of current economic policies and development issues. Third, analysis of the public sector investment program. Fourth, assessment of the prospects of the Belizean economy and of the country's creditworthiness, The Belizean economy expanded steadily during the 1960's and most of the 1970's. But economic growth slowed sharply during 1978-82 mainly because of the international recession and diseases affecting sugarcane, the main activity. Central Government finances have been managed soundly while those of several statutory bodies typically have not. But with a weakened economy Central Government's even finances have deteriorated in recent years. As a result, domestic credit to the public sector has been growing very rapidly. National savings and current account balance of payments deficits have fluctuated sharply, reflecting fluctuations in sugar export earnings. Both averaged about 13% of GNP during the last quinquennium. Investments account for 25% to 30% of GDP. A sizeable part of public investment, about 70% of the total, has been financed by external capital, mostly in the form of grants and loans on concessional terms. The public sector investment program gives high priority to the execu- tion of those infrastructural projects that constitute a prerequisite to produc- tive investments; namely electricity, roads and ports. Belize has physical resources to develop further its economy in agri- culture, agroprocessing, fishing and tourism, Development policies are, by and large, sound. But the country lacks financial and human resources. Because of the small size of the domestic market, development efforts should concentrate on export-oriented activities, Prospects for economic growth and balance of payments sustainability look favorable provided that there is a recovery in the world economy. The public debt service ratio has been low, less than 5% of exports but is projected to increase reaching about 10% by 1995 as more loans in conventional terms are contracted. - iV - PREFACIO Y EXTRACTO Este informe se basa en las conclusiones alcanzadas por una misi6n econ6mica que visit6 Belice en noviembre de 1982. La misi6n estuvo compuesta de las siguientes personas: Carlos Elbirt, Jefe (BIRF), Joe Eory (BIRF), Garcia Jorge Garcia (consultor), Allan Slusher (BDC), Vilay Soulatha (BIRF) y Dolores Velasco (BIRF). El informe tiene cuatro objetivos principales: primero, descripci6n de la economia de Belice; segundo, anAlisis de las actuales politicas econ6micas y cuestiones relativas al desarrollo; tercero, anAlisis del programa de inver- siones del sector p6iblico, y cuarto, evaluaci6n de las perspectivas de la econo- mia de Belice y de la capacidad crediticia del pals. La economia de Belice creci6 constantemente durante el decenio de 1960 y la mayor parte del de 1970. Sin embargo, el crecimiento econ6mico disminuy6 pronunciadamente durante el perlodo de 1978-82, principalmente debido a la rece- si6n internacional y alas enfermedades que afectaron a la cafia de azalcar, cuyo cultivo constituye la principal actividad del pals. Las finanzas del Gobierno central han sido administradas adecuada- mente, en tanto que las de varios organismos de derecho palblico normalmente lo no han sido. No obstante, con una economia debilitada, incluso las finanzas Gobierno del central se han deteriorado en los 61timos afios. Como resultado de e110, el cr6dito interno al sector paiblico ha crecido muy rApidamente. Los d4ficit del ahorro nacional y de la balanza de pagos en cuenta corriente han fluctuado pronunciadamente, como reflejo a su vez de fluctuaciones en los ingresos de exportaci6n del azalcar. Ambos representaron como promedio aproximadamente el 13% del PNB durante el ii1timo quinquenio. Las inversiones representan de 25% a 30% del PIB. Una cuantiosa parte de la inversi6n paiblica, mis o menos el 70% del total, se ha financiado mediante capital externo, en su mayor parte en forma de donaciones y prestamos en condiciones concesionarias. El programa de inversiones del sector palblico da prioridad a ci6n de los la ejecu- proyectos de infraestructura que constituyen un requisito para las inversiones productivas, a saber, electricidad, caminos y puertos. Belice tiene recursos fisicos para desarrollar ain mis su economia en los sectores de agricultura, agroindustria, pesca y turismo. Las politicas de desarrollo son en general adecuadas. No obstante, el pals carece de recursos financieros y humanos. Debido al pequefio tamalo del mercado interno, esfuerzos los de desarrollo deben concentrarse en actividades orientadas taci6n. a la expor- Las perspectivas de crecimiento econ6mico y de viabilidad de la balanza de pagos se yen favorables, siempre que haya una recuperaci6n en la economia mundial. El coeficiente del servicio de la deuda pGiblica ha sido bajo, inferior al 5% de las exportaciones, pero se preve que aumentar& a aproximadamente 10% en 1995 a medida que se obtengan mis prestamos en condiciones ordinarias. - v - Ce rapport est fond6 sur les conclusions d'une mission economique compos&e de MM. Carlos Elbirt, Chef de mission (BIRD), Joe Eory (BIRD), Jorge Garcia Garcia (Consultant), Allan Slusher (BDC), Vilay Soulatha (BIRD) et de Mmne Dolores Veleasco (BIRD), qui s'test rendue au Belize en novembre 1982. Les quatre principaux objectifs de ce rapport sont de decrire 1'eco- nomie du Belize, d'analyser sa politique economique actuelle et ses problAmes de developpement, d'examiner le programme d'investissements publics et enf in, d'6valuer les perspectives de 1'e6conomie et la capacit& d'emnprunt du pays. L'economie du Belize s'est d6veloppee sans A-coups pendant les ann6es 60 et la majeure partie des annees 70, mais sa croissance s'test considerablement ralentie entre 1978 et 1982, principalement en raison de la recession mondiale et des maladies qui ont compromis la production de canne A sucre, principale activiti du pays. Contrairement A celles de plusieurs organismes dtEtat, les finances publiques sont convenablement gerees. Elles ont n4anmoins subi, elles aussi, le contrecoup du flechissement de 1'activit6 enregistre depuis quelques annees.