ROAD IMPACT ON DEFORESTATION AND JAGUAR HABITAT LOSS IN THE MAYAN FOREST by Dalia Amor Conde Ovando University Program in Ecology Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Norman L. Christensen, Supervisor ___________________________ Alexander Pfaff ___________________________ Dean L. Urban ___________________________ Randall A. Kramer Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the University Program in Ecology in the Graduate School of Duke University 2008 ABSTRACT ROAD IMPACT ON DEFORESTATION AND JAGUAR HABITAT LOSS IN THE MAYAN FOREST by Dalia Amor Conde Ovando University Program in Ecology Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Norman L. Christensen, Supervisor ___________________________ Alexander Pfaff ___________________________ Dean L. Urban ___________________________ Randall A. Kramer An abstract of a dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the University Program in Ecology in the Graduate School of Duke University 2008 Copyright by Dalia Amor Conde Ovando 2008 Abstract The construction of roads, either as an economic tool or as necessity for the implementation of other infrastructure projects is increasing in the tropical forest worldwide. However, roads are one of the main deforestation drivers in the tropics. In this study we analyzed the impact of road investments on both deforestation and jaguar habitat loss, in the Mayan Forest. As well we used these results to forecast the impact of two road investments planned in the region. Our results show that roads are the single deforestation driver in low developed areas, whether many other drivers play and important role in high developed areas. In the short term, the impact of a road in a low developed area is lower than in a road in a high developed area, which could be the result of the lag effect between road construction and forest colonization. This is consistent since roads resulted to be a significant deforestation driver for at least two decades. Roads significantly affect jaguar’s habitat selection; however males showed a higher tolerance than females. From 1980 to 2000 female jaguars lost 36% of their habitat wile males lost 22%. Our forecasting of the impact of the proposed road, shows that it will promote the deforestation of approximately 16,851 has, and the jaguar habitat loss of 146,929, during the first decade; meanwhile the alternative route will have and impact of 2519 hectares and the habitat loss of 899 hectares. iv Contents Abstract .........................................................................................................................................iv List of Tables............................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ viii Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................ix 1. Introduction...........................................................................................................................1 2. Road investments and deforestation of the Mayan forest ..................................................9 Introduction.............................................................................................................................9 Methods .................................................................................................................................13 Study Area and Data Processing......................................................................................13 Model of Deforestation and Road Investments .............................................................19 Results and Discussion ........................................................................................................25 Short and medium term effects of road investments on deforestation. .....................25 Differences of road impacts given the landscape context. ...........................................31 Differences of deforestation drivers impacts, other than roads given the landscape context..................................................................................................................................34 The role of country/state on deforestation......................................................................35 What are the implications of these results for decision makers?.................................40 3. Using a jaguar habitat model to understand the early history of road impact on the Mayan forest degradation..........................................................................................................42 Introduction...........................................................................................................................42 Methods .................................................................................................................................44 iv Species..................................................................................................................................44 Study area............................................................................................................................48 Data collection.....................................................................................................................49 Jaguar data ......................................................................................................................49 Landscape Data..............................................................................................................52 Jaguar Habitat Model.........................................................................................................53 Mapping the early history of jaguar habitat..................................................................57 Results....................................................................................................................................58 Descriptive Statistics ..........................................................................................................58 Jaguar’s habitat model and road impact.........................................................................59 Roads impact on the Mayan Forest from 1980 to 2000: a jaguar’s perspective. ........62 Discussion..............................................................................................................................67 4. Impact of a road investment in the Mayan Forest: forecasting and policy alternatives70 Introduction...........................................................................................................................70 Methods .................................................................................................................................73 Deforestation model...........................................................................................................73 Forecasting the probability of deforestation...................................................................75 Estimating deforestation ...................................................................................................77 Forecast the habitat loss for female and male jaguar’s in the Mayan Forest from the alternative road investments ............................................................................................78 Results....................................................................................................................................78 Deforestation model...........................................................................................................78 v Forecasting the probability of deforestation...................................................................81 Estimating deforestation ...................................................................................................83 Estimating jaguar habitat loss...........................................................................................85 Discussion..............................................................................................................................86 5. General Conclusion.................................................................................................................92 References ....................................................................................................................................96 Biography...................................................................................................................................104 vi List of Tables Table 1. Path and row of satellite images used to estimate deforestation. .........................14 Table 2. Summary Statistics.......................................................................................................18 Table 3. Log-regression coefficients of deforestation covariates resulted from the per road type, per period models....................................................................................................27 Table 4. Results from the logit-models of 80-90 deforestation in high and low developed.....................................................................................................................................32