N O T I C E THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRODUCED FROM MICROFICHE. ALTHOUGH IT IS RECOGNIZED THAT CERTAIN PORTIONS ARE ILLEGIBLE, IT IS BEING RELEASED IN THE INTEREST OF MAKING AVAILABLE AS MUCH INFORMATION AS POSSIBLE N® i r F'B8;'- 137 118 Geodetic Monitoring of Tectonic Deformation Toward a Strategy (U.S.) National Research Council Washington, DC Prepared for Defense Mapping Agency Washington, DC !A Nov 81 U ft~ d O.ma ftllul ittfinf Ulwnrtion Service um REPORT 001lUrENTA710N IL 111110M N0. L !. ti ^koasa" N& PRRE 3 4. Two ad f► Vle L Ibwt Dab November 1981 Geod .`c Monitoring of Tectonic Deformation--Toward a Strategy ` 350046 7. AuUwW L Palo Ownbotwo wsot.we. Panel on Crustal Movement Measurements/Committee on Geodesy 9. P"NWJ rj Ogsalsalim NU a" Adkeft 1R Nsirtst/T*000wR Uelt W National Research Council Committee on Geodesy IL O'NabodO or Gnw*M H& 2101 Constitution. Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20418 tai 12. SOaasa b9 OrawguMs Iwma w d Addeaw is. rAw of NOW i Paned Cawmd Defense Mapping Agency, National Aeronautics and Space Admin., Final National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin., U.S. Geological Surve y IL Suppm" .nt" Iratm I& Atrtfad (Weft 200 arad^) The report presents issues of interest and importance to society and science. The problems considered are of national concern; their solutions may contribute to a better understanding of tectonic deformation and earthquake hazards. The need for additional field data, the role of geodetic measurements, the importance of both ground and space techniques, and the need for advanced instrumentation development are discussed.-.-*-., 17. DoewwwM Amlpft a. Deso olm Geodesy, geodetic space Zerhn-ques, geodetic ground techniques, tectonic deformatio earthquake hazards. b. k%nUNfs/OOmnEadad Tins e. COiATI Rfat Qmw 10. #jMb wRw •blaman: 1!. smoft Clam RMs P%wo 21. No. at Paps This report has been approved for public sale; la ow its distribution is unlimited. B& IftuftUnclassified peas Me ► 2L Fda Date m cam no-ss) of cxmm m T Ar p982-137118 Geodetic Monitoring of Tectonic Deformation -Toward a Strategy Panel on Crustal Movement Measurements Committee on Geodesy/Committee on Seismology Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences EMMUCEO it NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE US, viwci L% V C 22li1Rt[ I — Geodetic Monitoring of Tectonic Deformation —Toward a Strategy Fanel on Crustal Movement Measurements Committee on Geodesy/ Committee on Seismology ^ ^ _ Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington,D.C. 1984 I to &) n x r r.. r .. ^.yr pia ^^vs { NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the Councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the I Committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe- 1 tences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of mPm- bers of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Eagi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. f f 3 The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technol- ogy with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies r determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has bezome the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the Nationl Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. Available from Committee on Geodesy 2101 Constitution Avenue Washington, D.C. 20418 0. r ^, 4y Yk :^ Committee on Geodesy Ivan I. Mueller, The Ohio State University, Chairnwn Duane C. Brown, Geodetic Services, Inc., h 4 +alantic, Florida Daniel B. DeBra, Stanford University Adam M. Dziewonski, Harvard University Edward M. Gaposchkin, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory John C. Harrison, University of Colorado George E. Jones, Chevron U .S.A., Inc., New Orleans William M. Kaula, University of California, Los Angeles Byron D. Tapley, University of Texas, Austin Charles A. Whitten (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (retired) Liaison Members William J. Best, U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research John D. Bossler, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adr inistratioL Frederick J. Doyle, U.S. Geological Survey John R. Filson, U.S. Geological Survey Leonard E. Johnson, National Science Foundation Armando Mancini, Defznse Mapping Agency Thomas E, Pyle, Office of Naval Research (now National Oceanic and Atmo- spheric Administration) Carl F. Romney, Advanced Research Projects Agency Pitt G. Thome, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Stall Hyman Orlin, Executive Secretary Penelope Gibbs, Project Secretary W 4 r Committee on Seismology Keiiti Aki, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chapman John C. Crowell, University of California, Santa Barbara Gerald H. F. Gardner, University of Houston Bryan L Isacks, Cornell University Paul C. Jennings, California Institute of Technology r Thomas V. McEvilly, University of California, Berkeley Karen C. McNally, California Institute of Technology Peter H. Molnar, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Paul G. Richards, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Robert B. Smith, University of Utah Liaison Members William J. Best, U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research John R. Filson, U.S. Geological Survey Edward A. Flinn, National Aeronautics and Space Admini-stration William W. Hekaln, National Science Foundation Jerry Harbour, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission John G. Heacock, Office of Naval Research Leonard E. Johnson, National Science Foundation George A. Kolstad, U.S. Department of Energy James F. Lander, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Mark E. Odegard, Office of Naval Research t Carl F. Romney, Advanced Research Projects Agency Joseph W. Siry, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Robert E. Wallace, U.S. Geological Survey Staff Joseph W. Berg, Jr., Executive Secretary iv zip 0- ^l Panel on Crustal Movement Measurements Adam M. Dziewonski, Harvard University, Cha#wwn Peter L Bender, National Bureau cif Standards and University of Colorado Junathan Berger, Scripps Institutic i of Oceanography Ad John C. Harrison, University of Colorado } David D. Jackson, University of California, Los Angeles r Hiroo Kanamori, California Institute of Technology William M. Kaula, University of California, Los Angeles Arthur G. Sylvester, University of California, Santa Barbara Ex-officio Members Keiiti Aki, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Ivan I. Mueller, The Ohio State University Liaison, 'Members Kenneth 1. Daugherty, Defense Mapping Agency Edward A. Flinn, National Aeronautics and Space Administration John R. Fdso-1, U.S. Geological Survey Leonard E. Johnson, National Science Foundation James C. Savage, U.S. Geological Survey William E. Strange, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Staff Hyman Orlin, Executive Secretary Penelope Giwbs, Project Secretary . r V WIMP— 040"mWe ^ e Preface The improvement in geodetic instrumentation and measuresnent techniques during the past decade makes feasible the detection of crustal movements r over reasonably short time intervals. This has generated strong interest in monitc ing tectonic motions in seismic zones in order to understand the proc- esses that cause earthquakes, detect possible earthquake precursors, and assess their usefulness for earthquake prediction. Monitoring worldwide plate- tectonic motions and crustal movements caused by 'iuman activity is also of major importance. The Executive Summary approaches the problem from its sodetal and economic aspects. The body of the report, including the Intro- duction, addresses the scientific aspects of the problem. From both points of view the oonclusiom and recommendations are the same. As a result of a recommendation in the report Geodesy: 7*nds and Ansrects (Committee on Geodesy, 1978), a Panel on Crustal Movement Mean•-ements was formed under the Committee on Geodesy and the Com- mittee on Seismology of the National Research Council. This report is the result of the efforts of that Panel. The charge to the Panel, as formulated in February 1979 was: "Ile Panel on Crustal Movement Measurements shall investigate and make recommenda- tions concerning strategies for determining present -time crustal movements with particular consideration of seismically active zones." The Panel expected to address the following issues: 1. The deformation patterns precursory to major earthquakes, as cur- rently indicated by observational programs and theoretical considerations; Preceding page blank Ail PREFACE their spatial and temporal distribution and the range of uncertainty; the sig- nificant alternative hypotheses to be tested; and the importance of measure- ments of transient postseismic displacements.