World Transport Policy and Practice Volume 19.1 February 2013 ECO-LOGICA LA1 LTD ISSN 1352-7614 © 2012 ECO-LOGICA LA1 LTD FRANCIS ERIC KNIGHT BRITTON MANAGING DIRECTOR/EDITOR PROFESSOR JOHN WHITELEGG ECOPLAN. INTERNATIONAL/WORLD STREETS STOCKHOLM ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE AT 69003 LYON FRANCE YORK, T. +336 5088 0787 / S. NEWMOBILITY UNIVERSITY OF YORK, E. [email protected] YORK, YO10 5DD, U.K PAUL TRANTER SCHOOL OF PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENTAL & EDITORIAL BOARD MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES, PROFESSOR HELMUT HOLZAPFEL AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE ACADEMY UNIVERSITÄT KASSEL, CANBERRA ACT 2600, AUSTRALIA FACHBEREICH 06 - ARCHITEKTUR, STADT- UND LANDSCHAFTSPLANUNG PUBLISHER AG INTEGRIERTE VERKEHRSPLANUN- ECO-LOGICA LA1 LTD., 53 DERWENT ROAD, GOTTSCHALKSTRAßE 28, LANCASTER,LA1 3ES, U.K. D-34127 KASSEL GERMANY TELEPHONE +44 (0)1524 63175 E-MAIL: [email protected] HTTP://WWW.ECO-LOGICA.CO.UK CONTENTS Page Front Cover Picture: We are grateful to Stan Parrot who took 1 the photographs and to “Transport Solutions for Lancaster and Morecambe” (TSLM) for permission to use the photos of the otters threatened by the route of the Heysham M6 Link Road in Lancaster, UK. Editorial 3 Abstracts and Keywords 6 Road congestion, vehicles emissions and the intention to use public bus services in Malaysia – A flexible bus utility model Serena A. G. Kang, K. Jayaraman, Keng Lin Soh 8 Governance and Ecological Sustainability: the case of transport funding in New Zealand Dr Stephen Knight-Lenihan 25 Bürgerbus - German experiences in community transport Martin Schiefelbusch 35 A Swedish Bicycle Plan Tomas Björnsson 45 2 World Transport Policy and Practice Volume 19.1 Feb 2013 EDITORIAL The inner (green) shaded nonagon repre- Planetary Boundaries sents the safe operating space with pro- posed boundary levels at its outer contour. This is an unusual editorial. It is entire- The extent of the wedges for each bound- ly concerned with one book published in ary shows the estimate of current position 2012 called “The Human Quest” (Note 1). of the control variable. Points show the To say this book is important is an under- estimated recent time trajectory (1950– statement. It is hugely important because present) of each control variable. For biodi- it shows that the current trajectory of the versity loss, the estimated current bound- human species on this planet is on auto- ary level of >100 extinctions per million matic pilot with the self-destruct option species-years exceeds the space available initiated. This may sound rather dramatic in the figure. Although climate change, but the book is based on a very traditional ocean acidification, stratospheric ozone scientific analysis and a strong evidence depletion, land-use change, freshwater based logic rooted in the best scientific use, and interference with the phosphorus tradition and especially Swedish scientific cycle are boundaries defined as the state traditions. It is a solid, objective, scien- of a variable (concentration of atmospheric tific analysis. The book shows that there CO2, aragonite saturation state, and strat- are “planetary boundaries” that should not ospheric ozone concentration, percentage be crossed and we have now crossed 3 of of land under crops, maximum amount them and are in danger of crossing the re- of global annual freshwater use, cumu- mainder. The planetary boundaries are il- lative P loading in oceans, respectively), lustrated in Figure 1 the remaining boundary, biodiversity loss, Figure 1: Planetary Boundaries Source:http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/figure6.html 3 World Transport Policy and Practice Volume 19.1 Feb 2013 and the component of the biogeochemical The key messages are: boundary related to the human interfer- • We are the first generation to rec- ence with the N cycle are defined by rates ognize that humanity has become a force of change for each respective control vari- capable of undermining Earth’s capacity to able (extinctions per million species per support our prosperity. year, rate of N2 removed from atmosphere • We live in a globalized phase of en- for human use). vironmental change. Our economies and the world as we know it is at risk of under- The planetary boundaries that we have al- going major changes. ready crossed are flagged in red and are • We live in an interconnected world. climate change, biodiversity loss and ni- The stability of the Earth system and its trogen cycle excesses. We await further long-term capacity to support our wellbe- analysis and information on the other ing has become every nation’s and citi- boundaries and the rate at which we ap- zen’s concern. We must all manage the proach crossing the boundary and the ir- biosphere as a world community. reversible damage associated with this • If we keep Earth within the safe op- crossing. erating space of these planetary bounda- ries, we can all thrive. But if we push these The publicity accompanying the book em- scientifically drawn boundaries, we will phasises the science and the need for ur- trigger catastrophic events. gent action: • Our Human Quest is to change the trajectory of negative global environmen- The Human Quest combines evidence tal change to support development, as hu- from the many scientific disciplines manity moves toward a population of nine that reveal how planet Earth operates billion people. and the tenuous relations between the Earth system and humans. Rockström What has this got to do with and Klum not only diagnose the prob- transport? lems, but also look at the opportunities and evidence supporting the transition We are now approaching the 20th anniver- to a sustainable future. sary of the journal “World Transport Policy and Practice”. In these 20 years we have “We need to find ways to ‘turn’ these tracked the enormous damage on people, curves away from such global risks,” communities, ecology and the planet that says Rockström, “and we need to do it are directly related to increasing levels of now, in what may be the most decisive automobile dependency, distances trav- decade in human history. This book is elled, aviation and road freight. We have about deepening the insights of our so- published approximately 300 articles and cial-ecological predicament as a source the majority of these articles have mapped of hope and innovation. We need noth- out practical, implementable strategies ing less than a great transformation of and proposals to deliver a sustainable societies in the world, and I believe it future and to make sure that we do not is possible.” (in this one sector) transgress planetary boundaries. Transport is a core problem The book highlights that action needs in any discussion of planetary boundaries to be taken now.. in what may be the because the global trajectory is entirely most crucial decade in human history. in the wrong direction and every coun- With a fundamental shift in mindset, try on the planet (including Sweden) has humanity can succeed in a transition to strongly embedded cultural, professional global sustainability. The Human Quest and fiscal biases towards year on year can help turn the page to that new par- increases in vehicle kilometres travelled, adigm.” air miles used and billions of dollars and Euros spent on investments in new infra- structure. We have made it clear in almost every issue of the journal that transport policy everywhere has a deeply embedded strand of DNA that delivers more travel, 4 World Transport Policy and Practice Volume 19.1 Feb 2013 more roads, more airports and more high it is sometimes difficult to grasp what is speed rail and is motivated by a strong going on beyond stories of pandas, polar sense that more is better than less, faster bears and rare orchids but in Lancaster is better than slower and human progress all levels of government have conspired depends absolutely on higher levels of mo- to reduce biodiversity by ignoring the ot- bility. We think that this is a fundamental ters and contributing to habitat loss and error. More importantly still we provide a their demise. If we scale this up to all the different perspective and solutions that are highway plans and high speed rail plans in ready to go on a Monday morning when China, India and Africa we can see where politicians and decision makers turn up at the big red transgressing wedge labelled work and ask “what shall we do today”. “biodiversity” comes from. We do not say that transport issues are the In this issue of WTPP we once again fo- biggest issues that have to be addressed cus on intelligent solutions to future trans- on the planet (hunger, poverty, war, dis- port that have the potential to shift us into ease, torture, violence and rape are also a way of thinking and doing that avoids abominations). However if we really want transgressing planetary boundaries. To- to advance towards a sustainable future mas Björnsson draws attention to the ur- we do say that the transport debate is still gent need for improved cycling facilities in in very poor shape with little understand- southern Sweden that cost a small frac- ing of the need to sort out our relationship tion of what is spent on highways. Martin with mobility, speed and distance if we are Schiefelbusch shows how rural transport to achieve other declared policy objec- problems can be solved by community tives. Put very crudely we have no chance transport initiatives. Stephen Knight- whatsoever of altering paradigms or de- Lenihan reveals the extent to which de- velopment trajectories related to planetary sirable sustainability objectives can be boundaries if we do not sort out transport. undermined by a lack of will at national Even more worryingly those who alert us level. His account of the situation in New to planetary boundary trajectories and Zealand will resonate strongly with the consequences do not have a lot to offer situation in many other countries.