SMA CENTCOM Reach Back Cell Final Quick Look Responses SMA Reach-back This white paper does not represent official USG policy or position. 1 Contents Executive Summaries .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Question (QL1): What are the factors that could potentially cause behavior changes in Pakistan and how can the US and coalition countries influence those factors? ...................... 4 Question (QL2): What are the strategic and operational implications of the Turkish Army’s recent intervention in northern Syria for the coalition campaign plan to defeat ISIL? What is the impact of this intervention on the viability of coalition vetted indigenous ground forces, Syrian Defense Forces and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly ANF)? ..................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Question (QL3): What does primary source opinion research tell us about population support for ISIL in ISIL-held Iraq and globally outside the Combined Joint Operation Area (CJOA) (Syria and Iraq)? ............................................................................................................................. 10 Question (QL4): To what extent do populations maintain positive views of ISIL or ISIL's ideology, particularly in European, N. African, and Arabian Peninsula countries most associated with foreign fighter flows into Syria and Iraq? What are the general perceptions associated with ISIL endorsed themes, ....................................................................... 14 Question (QL5): What are the predominant and secondary means by which both large (macro-globally outside the CJOA, such as European, North African and Arabian Peninsula) and more targeted (micro- such as ISIL-held Iraq) audiences receive ISIL propaganda? .................................................................................................................................................... 17 Complete Inputs ................................................................................................................................................. 19 Question (QL1): What are the factors that could potentially cause behavior changes in Pakistan and how can the US and coalition countries influence those factors? ................... 19 Question (QL2): What are the strategic and operational implications of the Turkish Army’s recent intervention in northern Syria for the coalition campaign plan to defeat ISIL? What is the impact of this intervention on the viability of coalition vetted indigenous ground forces, Syrian Defense Forces and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly ANF)? .................................................................................................................................................................. 39 Question (QL3): What does primary source opinion research data tell us about popular support for ISIL in ISIL-held Iraq and globally outside of the Combined Joint Operation Area (CJOA) (Syria and Iraq)? .................................................................................................................. 56 Question (QL4): To what extent do populations maintain positive views of ISIL or ISIL's ideology, particularly in European, N. African, and Arabian Peninsula countries most associated with foreign fighter flows into Syria and Iraq? What are the general perceptions associated with ISIL endorsed themes, ....................................................................... 86 Question (QL5): What are the predominant and secondary means by which both large (macro-globally outside the CJOA, such as European, North African and Arabian Peninsula) and more targeted (micro- such as ISIL-held Iraq) audiences receive ISIL propaganda? .................................................................................................................................................. 117 Author Biographies ......................................................................................................................................... 139 This white paper does not represent official USG policy or position. 2 Dr. Hassan Abbas ......................................................................................................................................... 139 Major Shane Aguero ................................................................................................................................... 140 Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois ................................................................................................................. 140 Mr. Adam Azoff ............................................................................................................................................. 141 Dr. Mia Bloom ............................................................................................................................................... 141 Prof. Hamit Bozarslan ................................................................................................................................ 141 Dr. Soner Cagaptay ..................................................................................................................................... 142 Ms. Sarah Canna ........................................................................................................................................... 142 Mr. Bernard Carreau .................................................................................................................................. 143 Mr. Mark Caudill .......................................................................................................................................... 143 Dr. Kim Cragin .............................................................................................................................................. 143 Dr. Munqith Dagher .................................................................................................................................... 144 Dr. Cori E. Dauber ........................................................................................................................................ 145 Prof. Ruben Enikolopov ............................................................................................................................ 147 Mr. Alexis Everington ................................................................................................................................ 147 Prof. Christine Fair ...................................................................................................................................... 148 Dr. Sarah Feuer ............................................................................................................................................. 148 Dr. Rengin Bahar Firat ............................................................................................................................... 149 Mr. Zana K. Gulmohamad ......................................................................................................................... 149 Mr. Max Hoffman ......................................................................................................................................... 150 Dr. Noureddine Jebnoun ........................................................................................................................... 150 Dr. Neil Johnson ........................................................................................................................................... 150 Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler .................................................................................................................................. 151 Dr. Ramazan Kilinc ...................................................................................................................................... 151 Dr. Randolph Kluver ................................................................................................................................... 152 Dr. Gina Ligon ............................................................................................................................................... 152 Dr. Thomas F. Lynch III ............................................................................................................................. 153 Dr. Clark McCauley ...................................................................................................................................... 153 Dr. Ian McCulloh .......................................................................................................................................... 154 Mr. Paul Melly ............................................................................................................................................... 154 Dr. Chris Meserole ....................................................................................................................................... 154 Ms. Vera Mironova ...................................................................................................................................... 155 Dr. Sophia Moskalenko .............................................................................................................................. 155 Dr. Assem Nasr ............................................................................................................................................