Eastern Montana Fire Zone Fire Danger Analysis This Page Intentionally Left Blank Reviewed By: Craig Howels - Fire Management Officer Date Eastern Montana/Dakotas BLM District Prepared By: David Lee – Assistant Center Manager Date Miles City Interagency Dispatch Center Table of Contents I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 II. Fire Danger Planning Area Inventory and Analysis ....................................................................... 1 A. Fire Danger Rating Areas (FDRAs) ............................................................................................................ 1 B. Selected Weather Stations ....................................................................................................................... 2 III. Fire Danger Analysis .................................................................................................................... 3 A. Fire Business Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 3 IV. Fire Danger Operating Procedures .............................................................................................. 4 A. Roles and Responsibilities ........................................................................................................................ 4 1. Compliance with Weather Station Standards (NWCG PMS 426-3) ................................................ 4 2. Validation of Historic Fire Data ....................................................................................................... 4 3. Validation of Weather Data ............................................................................................................ 4 4. Preparation of FDAD ....................................................................................................................... 4 5. Update of FDAD .............................................................................................................................. 4 B. Seasonal Trend ......................................................................................................................................... 4 C. Daily Schedule .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Appendix 1 – Evaluation of Landscape Data (Topography, Fuels, Climate) ........................................... 5 A. Topographic Information ......................................................................................................................... 5 1. Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers Corridor ..................................................................................... 5 2. Lower River Basin: Tongue, Powder, and Musselshell ................................................................... 5 3. Upper River Basin: Tongue and Powder ......................................................................................... 5 B. Vegetation Data ........................................................................................................................................ 6 1. Open Timber ................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Grassland ........................................................................................................................................ 6 C. Climate Data ............................................................................................................................................. 7 D. Delineation of FDRAs ................................................................................................................................ 8 1. North Fire Danger Rating Area: ...................................................................................................... 8 2. South Fire Danger Rating Area ....................................................................................................... 9 Appendix 2 – Weather Station Selection and Fire Occurrence ........................................................... 12 A. Weather Data ......................................................................................................................................... 12 1. North Fire Danger Rating Area ..................................................................................................... 12 i 2. South Fire Danger Rating Area ..................................................................................................... 14 B. Fire Occurrence Data .............................................................................................................................. 19 1. North Fire Danger Rating Area ..................................................................................................... 21 2. South Fire Danger Rating Area ..................................................................................................... 22 Appendix 3 – Correlation with Fire Occurrence ................................................................................. 23 A. Statistical Analysis .................................................................................................................................. 23 B. Breakpoints and Fire Business Thresholds ............................................................................................. 25 1. North Fire Danger Rating Area Preparedness Level Thresholds .................................................. 25 2. South Fire Danger Rating Area Preparedness Level Thresholds .................................................. 27 C. Dispatch Response Levels ....................................................................................................................... 29 1. North FDRA Dispatch Response Level Thresholds ........................................................................ 30 2. South FDRA Dispatch Response Level Thresholds ........................................................................ 31 D. Adjective Fire Danger Rating .................................................................................................................. 31 1. North Adjective Fire Danger Rating .............................................................................................. 32 2. South Adjective Fire Danger Rating .............................................................................................. 33 Appendix 4 – Preparedness Levels and Staffing Plan ......................................................................... 34 A. Preparedness Levels ............................................................................................................................... 34 B. Drawdown and Step-up .......................................................................................................................... 35 Appendix 5 – Initial Attack Response Plan ......................................................................................... 36 Table of Tables Table 1: Preparedness Level Breakpoints ............................................................................................................. 3 Table 2: Dispatch Level Breakpoints ..................................................................................................................... 3 Table 3: Adjective Fire Danger Rating Breakpoints ............................................................................................... 3 Table 4: South FDRA RAWS Comparison ............................................................................................................. 18 Table 5: Most Active Fire Years in Eastern Montana .......................................................................................... 20 Table 6: Fuel Model Fitness for Probability of a Fire Day ................................................................................... 23 Table 7: Fuel Model Fitness, Conditional Probability of a Large Fire Day ........................................................... 25 Table 8: Fuel Model Fitness, Conditional Probability of a Multi Fire Day ........................................................... 25 Table 9: North FDRA Preparedness Level Fire Business Thresholds ................................................................... 25 Table 10: South FDRA Preparedness Level Fire Business Thresholds ................................................................. 27 Table 11: Dispatch Response Levels .................................................................................................................... 30 Table 12: North Adjective Fire Danger Rating ..................................................................................................... 32 Table 13: South Adjective Fire Danger Rating ..................................................................................................... 33 Table 14: Preparedness Level Worksheet ........................................................................................................... 34 Table 15: Drawdown Staffing Levels Based on Preparedness Levels .................................................................. 35 ii Table of Figures Figure 1 - Map of Fire Danger Rating Areas .......................................................................................................... 1 Figure 2 - Map of Selected Weather