UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones 8-1-2019 The Post-Soviet Voter: Evidence From The Caucasus Rafael Oganesyan Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/thesesdissertations Part of the Political Science Commons Repository Citation Oganesyan, Rafael, "The Post-Soviet Voter: Evidence From The Caucasus" (2019). UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones. 3741. http://dx.doi.org/10.34917/16076282 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Scholarship@UNLV with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/or on the work itself. 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THE POST-SOVIET VOTER: EVIDENCE FROM THE CAUCASUS By Rafael Oganesyan Bachelor of Arts – Economics University of Nevada, Las Vegas 2008 Bachelor of Arts – Political Science University of Nevada, Las Vegas 2010 Master of Arts- Political Science University of Nevada, Las Vegas 2014 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy – Political Science Department of Political Science College of Liberal Arts The Graduate College University of Nevada, Las Vegas August 2019 Copyright 2019 Rafael Oganesyan All Rights Reserved Dissertation Approval The Graduate College The University of Nevada, Las Vegas June 20, 2019 This dissertation prepared by Rafael Oganesyan entitled The Post-Soviet Voter: Evidence from the Caucasus is approved in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy – Political Science Department of Political Science John Tuman, Ph.D. Kathryn Hausbeck Korgan, Ph.D. Examination Committee Co-Chair Graduate College Dean Christian Jensen, Ph.D. Examination Committee Co-Chair David Damore, Ph.D. Examination Committee Member Michele Kuenzi, Ph.D. Examination Committee Member Mary Siegmaier, Ph.D. Examination Committee Member Dmitri Shalin, Ph.D. Graduate College Faculty Representative ii Abstract In western liberal democracies, voting behavior is often times characterized by sociological and psychological indicators. Party identification and issues such as the economy dominant the vote function of the electorate. In the post-Soviet space, party volatility and the competitive authoritarian nature of regimes may result in voters failing to act as agents of accountability. In this dissertation, I argue that the socio-psychological theory of voting behavior applies to post- Soviet electorate in the Caucasus. I demonstrate that Armenian and Georgian voters rely on partisanship as well as perceptions of the economy when casting electoral judgment on the incumbent party. This research furthers the applicability of the socio-psychological theory beyond countries with mature and durable party structures, and demonstrates that voters in competitive authoritarian regimes can act as agents of electoral accountability. iii Acknowledgements The completion of this work would not be possible without the members of my dissertation committee. Their mentorship capacity was central to framing, drafting, and completing this work. I would like to thank my co-chairs, Dr. Christian Jensen and Dr. John Tuman for their relentless effort towards my academic progress and their patience in guiding this research toward its completion. I would like to thank Dr. Dmitri Shalin for both his willingness to serve on my committee and for also introducing me to the challenges of post-Soviet societies in Fall 2006. I would also like to thank Dr. David Damore and Dr. Michele Kuenzi for not only serving on my committee but introducing me to the political behavior literature in Spring 2011. A special gratitude is owed to Dr. Mary Stegmaier who provided vital suggestions towards both the field research and the completion of my dissertation. Beyond the committee, I would like to thank Dr. Rebecca Gill for expanding my scope of research methods, and for always offering suggestions toward improving my research design for this project. I would also like to thank Dr. Michael Lewis-Beck for his dedication towards my progression as a young scholar and a student of economic voting. A central theme in this dissertation, the patronal nature of post-Soviet systems, would not be possible without the work of Dr. Henry Hale. I would like to thank Dr. Hale for his feedback on political behavior in the post-Soviet space, particularly the construction of the Armenian Election Study and the conceptualization of patronal voting. Finally, a special gratitude is bestowed upon the faculty and staff of the political science department at UNLV and the American University of Armenia. iv Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vi List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. vii Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Theoretical Foundations Of The Post-Soviet Voter ............................................. 21 Chapter 3: Modeling The Post-Soviet Voter ............................................................................ 51 Chapter 4: Sociodemographics & The Vote ............................................................................. 78 Chapter 5: Socioeconomics & The Vote ................................................................................. 103 Chapter 6: Party Identification & The Vote .......................................................................... 128 Chapter 7: Economy & The Vote ............................................................................................ 159 Chapter 8: Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 183 Appendix A: Alternative Models for Non-Responses ........................................................ 18392 Appendix B: Country-Specific Regression Output ............................................................ 18394 References .............................................................................................................................. 18395 Curriculum Vitae ...................................................................................................................... 205 v List of Tables Table 4.1: Sociodemographic Indicators and Incumbent Vote Intention in Armenia .................. 94 Table 4.2: Sociodemographic Indicators and Incumbent Vote Intention in Georgia ................... 94 Table 4.3: Sociodemographic Vote Determinants in Armenia ..................................................... 96 Table 4.4: Sociodemographic Vote Determinants in Georgia ...................................................... 98 Table 5.1: Socioeconomic Indicators and Incumbent Vote Intention in Armenia ..................... 119 Table 5.2: Socioeconomic Indicators and Incumbent Vote Intention in Georgia....................... 119 Table 5.3: Socioeconomic Vote Determinants in Armenia ........................................................ 121 Table 5.4: Sociodeconomic Vote Determinants in Georgia ....................................................... 124 Table 6.1: Partisanship and Incumbent Vote Intention in Armenia............................................ 150 Table 6.2: Partisanship and Incumbent Vote Intention in Georgia ............................................. 150 Table 6.3: Partisanship and the Vote in Armenia ....................................................................... 151 Table 6.4: Robustness of Partisanship and the Vote in Armenia ................................................ 154 Table 6.5: Partisanship and the Vote in Georgia ........................................................................ 155 Table 6.6: Robustness of Partisanship and the Vote in Georgia ................................................. 157 Table 7.1: Economic Perceptions and Incumbent Vote Intention in Armenia ........................... 174 Table 7.2: Economic Perceptions and Incumbent Vote Intention in Georgia ............................ 174 Table 7.3: Economy and the Vote in Armenia ........................................................................... 175 Table 7.4: Economy and the Vote in Georgia ............................................................................. 179 Table 8.1: Confirmation of Hypotheses ...................................................................................... 187 Table A1: Non-Responses in Armenia ....................................................................................... 192