Technical Assistance Consultant’s R eport Project Number: 48030-001 February 2020 Mongolia: S trategy for Northeast Asia Power S ystem Interconnection (Cofinanced by the Climate Change Fund, the People’s R epublic of China R egional Cooperation and Poverty R eduction Fund, and the R epublic of Korea e-Asia and Knowledge Partnership Fund) Prepared by E lectricite de France Paris, France For the Ministry of E nergy, Mongolia This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. TA 9001-MON: Strategy for Northeast Asia Power S ystem Interconnections EDF References: CIST – DCO – PhL – 18 - 208 This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. Module 4 report on Mongolia Energy Sector Profile and Projections FOREWORD The project Team would like to thank: - The Ministry of Energy of Mongolia for easing direct discussions with the National Dispatching Center, TRANSCO and Public Entities in Mongolia - The ADB’s Country Coordinators of Mongolia, People’s Republic of China, Republic of Korea, Japan for their support: Mongolia: Mr. Byambasaikhan PRC: Ms. Geng Dan (Danna) ROK: Mr. Jung-Hwan Kim Japan: Mr. Omatsu Ryo and Mr. Shota Ichimura Here is a reminder of the place of the Module 4 in the Project organization: 1 EDF ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE – with a capital of 1 006 625 696.50 euros – TA-9001 MON: Strategy for Northeast Asia Power System Interconnection 552 081 371 R.C.S. Paris EDF References: CIST – DCO – PhL – 18 - 208 www.edf.fr Module 4 report on Mongolia Energy Sector Profile and Projections TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... 14 1 OVERVIEW OF MODULE 4 .......................................................................................................... 19 2 MONGOLIA CURRENT POWER GENERATION ........................................................................ 20 2.1 CONVENTIONAL EXISTING POWER PLANTS ...................................................................... 21 2.1.1 Coal power plants .................................................................................................................. 22 2.1.2 Heat generation ..................................................................................................................... 23 2.1.3 Current Mongolia transmission grid ....................................................................................... 24 2.2 Renewable existing power plants .......................................................................................... 26 2.2.1 Hydro power plants ................................................................................................................ 26 2.2.2 Wind farms ............................................................................................................................. 27 2.2.3 Ground mounted solar PV farm ............................................................................................. 28 2.3 PIPELINE OF CURRENT POWER DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................ 30 2.3.1 Conventional plants ............................................................................................................... 30 2.3.2 Renewables ........................................................................................................................... 31 2.3.2.1 Hydro ............................................................................................................................. 31 2.3.2.2 Wind ............................................................................................................................... 32 2.3.2.3 Ground mounted solar PV ............................................................................................. 33 2.3.2.4 Biomass ......................................................................................................................... 34 2.3.2.5 Other renewables .......................................................................................................... 36 Geothermal energy resources ....................................................................................................... 36 3 MONGOLIA STRATEGY ON POWER DEVELOPMENT............................................................. 38 4 MONGOLIA EXISTING ENERGY POLICY (2030) ....................................................................... 40 4.1 Organizations of Mongolian power sector ............................................................................ 40 4.2 Regional energy system ......................................................................................................... 42 4.3 Single Buyer Model ................................................................................................................. 48 5 IMPACT ON MONGOLIAN CONVENTIONAL FLEET WITH ENERGY POLICY 2030 .............. 49 5.1 Targets ...................................................................................................................................... 49 5.2 Analysis of Existing Generation In Mongolia ....................................................................... 52 5.3 Heat forecast in mongolia ....................................................................................................... 52 5.4 Planned Generation Development ......................................................................................... 53 5.5 Conclusion of Generation Analysis ....................................................................................... 62 6 DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN MONGOLIA FOR EXPORTATION ............... 64 6.1 RENEWABLES DEVELOPMENT scenarios FOR MONGOLIA ............................................. 64 2 EDF ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE – with a capital of 1 006 625 696.50 euros – TA-9001 MON: Strategy for Northeast Asia Power System Interconnection 552 081 371 R.C.S. Paris EDF References: CIST – DCO – PhL – 18 - 208 www.edf.fr Module 4 report on Mongolia Energy Sector Profile and Projections 6.1.1 Scenario 0 « MINGW » in 2020 ............................................................................................. 64 6.1.2 Scenario 1 « +5GW » in 2026 ............................................................................................... 65 6.1.3 Scenario 2 « +10GW » in 2036 ............................................................................................. 65 6.1.4 Scenario 3 « +100GW » in the long term .............................................................................. 65 6.2 Wind and solar PV resource assessment ............................................................................. 65 6.2.1 Previous renewables resource assessment .......................................................................... 66 6.2.2 Methodology – GIS tool ......................................................................................................... 70 6.2.3 Hypotheses – Key environmental and regulation constraints ............................................... 72 6.2.4 Regulatory and land use constraints ..................................................................................... 72 6.2.5 Wind technology characteristics ............................................................................................ 75 6.2.6 Solar PV characteristics ........................................................................................................ 80 6.3 gis ranking methodology ........................................................................................................ 84 6.3.1 Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) ................................................................................. 85 6.3.2 Weighing of criteria for the different scenarios ...................................................................... 86 6.3.3 Multi-criteria decision analysis for the different scenarios ..................................................... 88 6.4 wind power potential ............................................................................................................... 92 6.4.1 Wind resource data ............................................................................................................... 92 6.4.2 Gross wind potential .............................................................................................................. 93 6.4.3 Technical wind potential ........................................................................................................ 94 ....................................................................................................................................................... 94 6.4.4 Scenario 0 – Wind potential ................................................................................................... 95 6.4.5 Scenario 1 to 3 – Wind potential ............................................................................................ 98 6.5 solar pv potential ................................................................................................................... 100 6.5.1 Solar resource data ............................................................................................................. 100 6.5.2 Gross solar potential ...........................................................................................................