CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 To download further data: CSIS.ORG To contact author: [email protected] Iran’s Search for Weapons of Mass Destruction Warfighting Capabilities, Delivery Options, and Weapons Effects Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy with assistance from G. Ryan Faith August 7, 2003 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East 8/12/2003 Page ii Table of Contents INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................1 PROBLEMS IN COLLECTING DATA ON IRAQI WMD CAPABILITIES AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS - I ................................3 PROBLEMS IN COLLECTING DATA ON IRAQI WMD CAPABILITIES AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS - II...............................5 PROBLEMS IN ANALYZING IRAQI AND OTHER COUNTRY WMD CAPABILITIES AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS - I.............6 PROBLEMS IN ANALYZING IRAQI AND OTHER COUNTRY WMD CAPABILITIES AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS - II ...........7 PART ONE: .................................................................................................................................................................8 CAUSES, WARFIGHTING OPTIONS, AND ARMS CONTROL ........................................................................8 UNSTABLE PATTERNS OF WAR FIGHTING AND ESCALATION......................................................................................9 REASONS FOR PROLIFERATING OUTWEIGH PERCEIVED RISKS .................................................................................10 A WIDE RANGE OF WAR FIGHTING OPTIONS THAT GO FAR BEYOND MISSILE ATTACKS .......................................11 UNSTABLE POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS OF ADVERSARIES ..........................................................................................12 ONE-HALF CHEER FOR ARMS CONTROL ..................................................................................................................13 STRATEGY, TACTICS, AND OPERATIONS ..................................................................................................................14 DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE GEORGE J. TENET’S SUMMARY OF THE STATUS OF PROLIFERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST – TESTIMONY BEFORE THE SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE: FEBRUARY 6, 2002....15 TERRORISM........................................................................................................................................................15 PROLIFERATION...............................................................................................................................................15 MAJOR UNCERTAINTIES ...........................................................................................................................................18 TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND IMPERATIVES 2010-2020: MISSILES AND OTHER DELIVERY SYSTEMS .....19 TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND IMPERATIVES 2010-2020: CHEMICAL WEAPONS ......................................20 TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND IMPERATIVES 2010-2020: BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS ...................................21 TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND IMPERATIVES 2010-2020: NUCLEAR WEAPONS........................................22 TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND IMPERATIVES 2010-2020: COUNTERPROLIFERATION AND DEFENSIVE OPTIONS ...................................................................................................................................................................23 THE STATUS OF MAJOR ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS...........................................................................................24 MAJOR RISKS IN REGIONAL ARMS CONTROL...........................................................................................................25 PART TWO: ..............................................................................................................................................................26 WHO IS PROLIFERATING?..................................................................................................................................26 PROLIFERATION IS ALREADY HERE: MIDDLE EASTERN CASE STUDIES IN CREEPING PROLIFERATION ...................27 CREEPING PROLIFERATION AFFECTS MANY KEY COUNTRIES..................................................................................28 * PROBABLY NO LONGER USABLE. ...........................................................................................................................28 UNSTABLE POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS OF ADVERSARIES ..........................................................................................29 PART THREE:..........................................................................................................................................................30 IRAN’S SEARCH FOR WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.......................................................................30 Delivery Systems..................................................................................................................................................31 Chemical Weapons ..............................................................................................................................................41 Biological Weapons.............................................................................................................................................46 Nuclear Weapons.................................................................................................................................................48 Missile Defenses ..................................................................................................................................................61 PART FOUR:.............................................................................................................................................................62 DELIVERY SYSTEMS ............................................................................................................................................62 THE REGION HAS MANY POSSIBLE DELIVERY SYSTEMS .........................................................................................63 POSSIBLE MISSILE DELIVERY SYSTEMS* .................................................................................................................64 POSSIBLE AIR DELIVERY SYSTEMS* ........................................................................................................................65 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East 8/12/2003 Page iii PART FIVE: ..............................................................................................................................................................66 TERRORISM AND UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE......................................................................................66 TERRORISM AND UNCONVENTIONAL WAR FIGHTING OPTIONS................................................................................67 SUPER-TERRORISM...................................................................................................................................................68 THE PROBLEM OF TERRORISM AND UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE ..........................................................................69 THE PROBLEM OF TERRORISM, PROXY, AND UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE: THE MIDDLE EAST AS A TEST CASE..70 PART SIX: .................................................................................................................................................................73 DIFFERENT TYPES OF WEAPONS.....................................................................................................................73 OF MASS DESTRUCTION .....................................................................................................................................73 DIFFERENT TYPES OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ........................................................................................74 STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: PART ONE .................................................75 STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: PART TWO.................................................76 STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION: PART THREE..............................................77 CHEMICAL WEAPONS..........................................................................................................................................78 MAJOR CHEMICAL AGENTS - PART ONE ..................................................................................................................79 MAJOR CHEMICAL AGENTS - PART TWO..................................................................................................................80 TYPICAL WARFIGHTING USES OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS ..........................................................................................81 THE RELATIVE KILLING EFFECT OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS UNDER DIFFERENT CONDITIONS OF AEROSOL DELIVERY (NUMBERS OF DEAD FROM DELIVERY OF 1,000 KILOGRAMS) ..................................................................................82 THE RELATIVE CASUALTY EFFECT OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS UNDER MILITARY CONDITIONS (PERCENT OF CASUALTIES)............................................................................................................................................................83