NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 1 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED Table of contents Introduction and Chief Constable’s declaration Page 3 Executive Summary Page 4 Page 13 Page 25 Page 43 Page 64 Page 99 Page 113 Page 129 Page 145 Page 156 Page 165 Page 180 Page 186 2 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED West Yorkshire With a population of over 2.2 million, West Yorkshire Police is the fourth largest force in the country and is comprised of an economically, socially and culturally diverse population. There are five local authorities, covering urban and rural communities, with coterminous policing districts. West Yorkshire has a higher than average demand in relation to crime and calls for service. This reflects the challenges faced, as over half of the wards have areas in the top 10% of the deprivation index and unemployment is above the national average. The black, Asian and minority ethnic population is increasing and is currently 18.2%. Maintaining community confidence is essential and engagement is improving as a result of the Force’s innovative positive action recruitment campaign. District policing provides local neighbourhood, response, crime investigation and safeguarding functions, supported centrally by specialist operational and crime capabilities and back office services. The force is focused on improving its approach to safeguarding, working in partnership to better identify and support those at risk. The force hosts the National Police Air Service and the North East Counter Terrorism Unit, which manages locally the threat from Daesh/IS inspired groups and the increasing threat from the extreme right wing. The force collaborates across the Yorkshire and Humber Region around operational and support services and leads on the provision of scientific support. West Yorkshire Police is operating on a budget that has reduced by £147m since 2010 whilst seeing increasing demand, particularly in the areas of child sexual exploitation and abuse, mental health, missing persons and terrorism. Our workforce comprises 5129 police officers and 4407 police staff (including 637 police community support officers). Together with universities, we are developing new ways of working through successful funding bids, particularly in relation to cyber enabled offending and our use of technology to meet the changing nature of crime. Declaration This is the Force Management Statement for West Yorkshire Police. Except where stated otherwise, the information in this statement is complete and accurate in all material respects. Dee Collins Chief Constable 3 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED 4 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED Executive Summary Overall context and current assessment of West Yorkshire Police West Yorkshire Police has been recognised by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (HMICFRS) as a Good force . We have been graded as Good at tackling serious and organised crime and were found to have effective specialist capabilities. We also have strong capacity and capability in our protective services and have a number of regional and national responsibilities. We are: • The lead force for the North East Counter Terrorism Unit, an area where risk is growing given the national and international increase in terrorism and extremism. • The lead force within the Yorkshire and Humber Region for the Regional Organised Crime Unit which is delivering the specialist capabilities needed to disrupt organised crime, and the lead force in the North Eastern Region for the Regional Asset Recovery Team. • The lead force for the National Police Air Service, ensuring effective deployment of air support nationally. • Progressing Bluelight collaborations with the fire and ambulance services to enhance interoperability, reduce demand and improve efficiency and effectiveness. Over the last year we have made improvements within Neighbourhood Policing by reinvesting an additional 100 Police Constables as well as 16 Inspectors and 13 Sergeants into our enhanced Neighbourhood Policing Model. Along with a new Strategy focussing on the three pillars of community engagement, prevention/early intervention and problem solving, we have developed an abstractions policy to maintain dedicated numbers and have equipped those officers with problem solving training and the skills to identify signals of risk so that they can intervene early to reduce harm and demand. As a result, we have recently been graded by HMICFRS as Good at Preventing Crime and Anti-Social Behaviour. Over the past few years we have realigned our resources to address threat, harm and risk and have significantly invested in safeguarding. The demand in this area (e.g. Child Sexual Exploitation & Abuse, Missing Persons, Mental Health and Domestic Abuse) has increased significantly over the last five years and now accounts for one in five of all incidents recorded. We have strong multi-agency partnerships to address these areas and have developed a number of innovative approaches to tackle increasing demand. As a result, HMICFRS have graded us as Good at Protecting those who are Vulnerable to Harm. We have also been graded by HMICFRS as Good at Legitimacy in terms of how the force treats its workforce and whether the workforce behaves ethically and lawfully. We have one of the most positive staff survey results in the country and over the last year improvements have been made in all areas surveyed. The Force has consistently been graded by HMICFRS to be Good at understanding demand, using resources and planning for the future. Our Force Management Statement has, using statistical forecasting tools, attempted to predict what future demand will be over the next four years and assessed the current capacity and capability of the workforce to meet that demand. This Executive Summary identifies the significant challenges we face from demand and workforce perspectives and focuses mainly on Step 4 of the Force Management Statement process, namely the demand we do not expect to be able to meet despite the changes and efficiencies we will be making. The four year predictions shown in this Executive Summary utilise statistical forecasting that reflect historical trends. Short term anomalies (e.g. crime recording spikes) have been accounted and adjusted for and professional judgement on key factors has also been taken into used. This is the first time the force has published such predictions and we will be tracking and refining our calculations over the coming year. 5 2. IncidentsAttendance at a- Emergency Potential 1. 999Calls calls particularly for service, challenges significant Our most be a will there i in trend a concerning illustrates graph above The our of much27% as as be causing could their crime, incid reported their at attendance regarding police A significant amount of our call demand is is demand call our of amount A significant issues. demand compounding making 1 of consequence unintended the have 101 may incre to predicted is only demand 101 call Although 999 performanc maintain to a investment significant 100000 110000 120000 130000 140000 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 Policing 0 Apr 2015 Jan 2016 Jun 2015 Mar 2016 Aug 2015 20.2% increase increase 20.2% May 2016 Oct 2015 Jul 2016 Dec 2015 Sep 2016 Feb 2016 Nov 2016 Apr 2016 Jan 2017 projectioncalls month999 Total (12 rollingtotal) Jun 2016 Mar 2017 Aug 2016 May 2017 Projection (12 month rolling total) rolling month(12 Projection in these (83,627 calls) and our Customer Contact Ce Contact Customer and our calls) (83,627 these in Oct 2016 Jul 2017 NOT MARKED PROTECTIVELY Dec 2016 Sep 2017 Feb 2017 Nov 2017 413,733 Apr 2017 Jan 2018 Jun 2017 Mar 2018 repeat demand repeat Aug 2017 May 2018 Oct 2017 Jul 2018 6 Sep 2018 Dec 2017 ent, or informed regarding the investigation of of investigation the regarding informed ent, or ncreasing 999 calls; we predict that by 2021 that by predict we 999 calls; ncreasing ase slightly (2.5%) the prioritisation of 999 over over 999 of prioritisation the (2.5%) ase slightly Nov 2018 Feb 2018 demand. forecasted forthis e demand based on recent analysis. analysis. recent on based demand Apr 2018 Jan 2019 Mar 2019 Jun 2018 thereby ring 999, instead callers 01 . A failure to keep people updated updated people keep to failure . A May 2019 Aug 2018 Threat to Neighbourhood Threat Neighbourhood to Jul 2019 Oct 2018 Sep 2019 Dec 2018 121,765 Nov 2019 Feb 2019 Jan 2020 Apr 2019 Mar 2020 Jun 2019 May 2020 Aug 2019 Jul 2020 Oct 2019 Sep 2020 Dec 2019 Nov 2020 Feb 2020 Jan 2021 Apr 2020 need ntre will Mar 2021 Jun 2020 May 2021 Aug 2020 Jul 2021 129,352 Oct 2020 Sep 2021 497,360 Dec 2020 Nov 2021 Feb 2021 Jan 2022 NOT PROTECTIVELY MARKED The increase in 999 calls has implications for emergency attendance which is predicted to increase by a further 6,679 incidents. Although this figure seems low in comparison with the increase of 999 calls listed at point 1 above, it has assumed we continue our current rate of attendance against incoming 999 calls, which has been slowing. A small increase in the need to attend more 999 calls (due to their genuine severity) would have profound implications. Data also tells us that on average 4.2 officers are deployed to an Emergency incident versus 2.7 officers to a Priority incident, therefore emergencies require 35% more resources. Without an investment of additional resources, it is predicted that the long term worsening trend around attendance time will further deteriorate along with victim satisfaction, which is heavily influenced by the speed of arrival of officers. This also threatens the Neighbourhood Policing Model because protecting Neighbourhood Policing Team officers from abstractions may not be feasible within the context of increased call demand. Our ambition is for these officers to focus on prevention, early intervention and problem solving to reduce demand in the long term but they may need to be abstracted into short-medium term demands out of necessity.