CAN CHINA REPLACE THE US AS A NEW HEGEMON? THE IMPACT OF THE ENERGY SECURITY IN CHINA’S HEGEMONIC POTENTIAL. A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY NIGAR SHIRALIZADE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SEPTEMBER 2016 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences _____________________ Prof. Dr. Tülin Gençöz Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. ___________________ Prof.Dr. Özlem Tür Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. __________________ Prof. Dr. Faruk Yalvaç Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Faruk Yalvaç (METU, IR) __________________________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mehmet Fatih Tayfur (METU, IR) __________________________ Asst. Prof. Mehmet Gürsan Şenalp (Atılım University, Economics) _________ I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : Signature : iii ABSTRACT CAN CHINA REPLACE THE US AS A NEW HEGEMON? THE IMPACT OF THE ENERGY SECURITY IN CHINA’S HEGEMONIC POTENTIAL. Shiralizade, Nigar MSc., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Faruk Yalvaç September 2016, 198 pages This thesis investigates the possibility of ‘change’ in the current world structure initiated by the rising power. The aim of the thesis is to demonstrate that China wants to be a hegemonic power through spreading its influence on societal and political domains supported by the economic might. Accordingly, it emphasizes the historical continuum of the same target, regardless of the changes in narrative and strategies followed by different governments. The thesis will use Gramscian approach of ‘hegemony’, as well as ‘transformismo’ and ‘historic bloc’ notions. The analysis consists of three intermingled circles – theoretical evaluation of the conceptions; the development of China’s ideological alternative; and the application of this research on the energy security spectrum. This thesis delineates the obstacles and opportunities of hegemonic ‘chains’ and emphasizes the utilization of energy concern as a ‘pretext’ for entering into the regions out of adequate hegemonic control. The thesis concludes by arguing that China is not yet in a powerful position to realize a hegemonic transition which it wants. Nevertheless, there are signs that if China is successful in establishing its hegemony it is likely to be, if not the only, but one of the hegemonic systems bringing ‘transition’ to the current world order. Key words: hegemony, ‘historic bloc’, energy security, China, US iv ÖZ ÇİN YENİ HEGEMON OLARAK ABD’İN YERİNE GEÇEBİLİR Mİ? ENERJİ GÜVENLİĞİNİN ÇİN’İN HEGEMONİK POTANSİYALİNE ETKİSİ Shiralizade, Nigar Yüksek Lisans, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Faruk Yalvaç Eylül 2016, 198 sayfa Bu çalışma mevcut dünya sisteminde yükselen gücün etkisiyle gerçekleşen hegemonik ‘değişim’ olasılığını araştırıyor. Tezin en önemli hedefi Çin’in ekonomik gücünün ideolojik ve politik güce çevirme çabalarını göstermektir. Tez Gramsci’nin hegemonya, ‘transformismo’ ve ‘tarihsel blok’ kavramlarını kullanıyor. Tez üç bir- biriyle bağlı kısımdan ibarettir. İlk kısım teorik açıklamalar; ikincisi Çinin ideolojik alternatifi; üçüncü ise bu araştırmaların enerji güvenliği çerçevesinde incelenmesidir. Tezde Çin’in enerji güvenliğini etkileyen hegemonik ‘zincirlerin’ fırsata dönüştürülerek farklı bölgelere giriş için ‘bahane’ gibi kulanılması gösterilecektir. Son olarak, bu çalışma, Çin’in hegemonik sistem kuracak kadar güçlü olmamasına rağmen, yapısal değişim sağlamakta büyük etkide bulunduğunu vurguluyor. Anahtar Kelimeler: hegemonya, tarihsel blok, enerji güvenliği, Çin, ABD v To my parents… vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor Prof. Dr. Faruk Yalvaç for his guidance, advice, criticism, encouragements and insight throughout the research. I would also like to thank Assoc. Prof. Dr. M. Fatih Tayfur ad Asst. Prof. M. Gürsan Şenalp for their suggestions and comments. Especially, I would like to express the greatest thanks to my mother Jamilia Aliyeva and father Telman Shiraliyev for their love, support and belief in me throughout this work. My grandparents and dear friends who were with me and never stopped to believe in my success should also be mentioned. Thanks to all the people who were next to me during one of the most tiring, stressful and responsible periods of my whole life. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM............................................................................................................iii ABSTRACT………………………………………………..……………………..…iv ÖZ……………………………………………………..……………………………..v DEDICATION………………………………..……………………………………..vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS………………………………………………………......vii TABLE OF CONTENTS…………………………………..………………………viii LIST OF FIGURES ……..…………………………………...…………………......xi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION………………..…………………………………....……...……..1 1.1. Research question and theoretical framework……….…………….…..…1 1.2. Synopsis and methodology ...……………… …….……………….……. 6 1.3. Conclusion ……………………………………………………….……... 8 2. THE CONCEPT OF HEGEMONY IN THE CONTEMPORARY DISCIPLINE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS…………………….….……. 10 2.1 Introduction …………………………………………...……….………. 10 2.2. Theoretical background. What is hegemony? …………………..…….. 11 2.2.1 Hegemony in ancient history: arkhe and hegemonia ..………… …….12 2.2.2 Hegemonic Stability Theory ……………………...…………..………15 2.2.3 Gramscian understanding of hegemony ………….....……………….. 18 2.2.3.a. Gramscian Hegemony in the discipline of international relations………………………...…………………………….. 24 2.2.3.b. Gramscian analysis of counter – hegemonic movements and ‘transformismo………………………………………………….………30 2.2.3.c ‘Historic Bloc’ …………………....…………..………….………… 34 2.3. International ‘Historic bloc’ ……………………………..……………. 36 2.4. The US hegemony building – Transnational Capitalist Class …….….. 39 2.5. Conclusion ………………………………..…………………..………..53 3. POTENTIAL ALTERNATIVE TO THE ESTABLISHED viii WORLD ORDER. CHINA AS A NEW HEGEMON? …………………....…...54 3.1. Introduction ………………….……………………….………………...54 3.2. Historical overview of Chinese perspective on the international society ……………………………………………………………………….…..56 3.2.1 China and humiliation era – ‘sick man’s development’.……….……..58 3.2.2. Mao’s ‘intermediary zone’ …………...……..………….....………… 61 3.3. The rise of China – Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatic strategy ………...…..66 3.4. ‘Peaceful Rise’ doctrine and Harmonious World ….……........……….75 3.5. China model – the Beijing Consensus vs the Washington Consensus…………………………………………………………….....85 3.5.1. Beijing Consensus as an alternative path to economic development ……………………………………………………………………….….88 3.6. ‘Charm Offensive’ – China’s soft power development………….….….93 3.6.1. Historical roots of China’s peaceful development strategy and its influence in substantiating China’s impact at the societal level …………………………………………………………………………..94 3.7. Sub-optimization strategy – the path to a new ‘historic bloc’..…………………………………………………………………..100 3.8. ‘China Dream’ …………………….…………….…..…….……….102 3.9. Conclusion ……………………………………………..………….105 4. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POTENTIAL ‘HISTORIC BLOC’ ALONG CHINA’S ENERGY ROUTES ……………………………………..….…..……..106 4.1. Introduction ……………………………………...………….………...106 4.2. The importance of energy security …………………………..………. 109 4.3. China’s involvement in the world energy market …………………… 113 4.4. The US’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ – or supervision of China’s rise ……….….. 119 4.5. Impact of ‘Pivot to Asia’ politics on China’s energy security ………..130 4.6. China’s potential reactions to the US’s rebalancing strategy…………………………………………….……..……131 4.7. Accessing markets under limited hegemonic influence – China’s OBOR strategy…………………………………………………….…….....139 4.7.1. US attempts of realize ‘transformismo’ in the field of energy......... 153 4.8. Conclusion …………………………………………….……………...156 5. CONCLUSION ……………………………….….…….....…………….158 ix 5.1. Theoretical and Empirical Implications ………………….….. 161 5.2. China Model – a potential hegemonic alternative …….…...….163 5.3. The significance of ‘energy security’ on building ‘historic bloc’ ….……………………………………………….…166 REFERENCES..…………...……………………………………...….….………...168 APPENDICES A. TURKISH SUMMARY …………………………………..…………. 189 B. TEZ FOTOKOPİSİ İZİN FORMU ………………………...………….198 x LIST OF FIGURES FIGURES Figure 1 National Humiliation Gymnastics ……………………………………….. 60 Figure 2 US Energy Information Administration ……………..…………………. 111 Figure 3 BP Statistical Review 2014 ……………………………………….……. 116 Figure 4 ‘Malacca dilemma’ …………………………..………………….……… 117 Figure 5 American bases in the Asia-Pacific ……………………..,……………... 127 xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things. For the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new order, this lukewarmness arising partly from fear of their adversaries, who have the laws in their favor; and partly from the incredulity of mankind,