NEEDS ASSESSMENT STUDY PICKERING LANDS Final Report SUBMITTED TO: TRANSPORT CANADA PREPARED BY: THE GREATER TORONTO AIRPORTS AUTHORITY MARCH 2010 Greater Toronto Airports Authority CONTENTS Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Study Background...................................................................................................1-1 1.2 Study Elements........................................................................................................1-2 1.3 Next Steps.................................................................................................................1-2 1.4 Airport Scope ...........................................................................................................1-3 1.5 Chapter Profile ........................................................................................................1-6 Chapter 2: Previous Work Related to the Need for an Airport in Pickering 2.1 Brief History of the Early Years of the Pickering Lands (1968–1988) .........2-2 2.2 Aviation in Southern Ontario—A Strategy for the Future (1989–1990) ......2-3 2.3 Pearson Airside Development Project Environmental Impact Statement (1991) .......................................................................................2-5 2.4 Interim Report of the Federal Environmental Assessment Panel (1992) ......................................................................................2-9 2.5 Pearson 1995 Master Plan ....................................................................................2-9 2.6 Southern Ontario Area Airports Study (1995).................................................2-10 2.6.1 Objectives ...............................................................................................2-11 2.6.2 Study Scope ...........................................................................................2-11 2.6.3 Airport Summaries ...............................................................................2-12 2.6.4 Lack of Adequate Runway Length in the Eastern GTA ..................2-18 2.6.5 Overall Demand/Capacity Conclusions ............................................2-19 2.6.6 Development of a Second Major Airport ..........................................2-19 2.7 Pearson 1999 Master Plan ..................................................................................2-24 2.8 Pickering Airport Draft Plan Report (2004).....................................................2-25 2.9 Pearson 2007 Master Plan ..................................................................................2-28 Needs Assessment Study—Pickering Lands Chapter 3: Regional Traffic Forecasts 3.1 Passengers...............................................................................................................3-2 3.1.1 Revenue Origin-Destination Passengers ...........................................3-2 3.1.2 Revenue Enplaned/Deplaned Passengers .........................................3-4 3.1.3 Total Enplaned/Deplaned Passengers ...............................................3-6 3.1.4 High Speed Rail .......................................................................................3-7 3.1.5 New Forecasts ........................................................................................3-8 3.2 Air Carrier Movements ........................................................................................3-11 3.2.1 New Forecasts ......................................................................................3-12 3.3 General Aviation Aircraft Movements ..............................................................3-14 3.3.1 General Aviation Itinerant Movements .............................................3-14 3.3.2 General Aviation Local Movements ...................................................3-14 3.3.3 New Forecasts ......................................................................................3-17 3.4 Expanded Airport System ...................................................................................3-18 3.4.1 General Aviation Itinerant Aircraft Movement Forecasts .............3-19 3.4.2 General Aviation Local Movement Forecasts ..................................3-20 Chapter 4: Pearson Capacity 4.1 Activity History.........................................................................................................4-2 4.2 Airside Capacity.......................................................................................................4-3 4.2.1 Capacity of the Existing Airside System .............................................4-3 4.2.2 Potential Airside Capacity .....................................................................4-7 4.2.3 Airside Passenger Capacity ................................................................4-10 4.3 Passenger Terminal Capacity ............................................................................4-11 4.4 Opportunities to Maximize Airside Capacity ...................................................4-14 4.4.1 Daily Traffic Peak Spreading ..............................................................4-14 4.4.2 Weekly/Seasonal Traffic Patterns .....................................................4-15 4.4.3 Increased Night Time Operations ......................................................4-15 4.4.4 Off-loading Business Aviation Traffic ...............................................4-16 4.4.5 Larger Aircraft ......................................................................................4-16 4.4.6 Air Navigation Services ........................................................................4-17 4.4.7 Conclusion .............................................................................................4-19 Contents, Page 2 of 8 Contents Chapter 5: Airport Capacities 5.1 John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport.................................................5-1 5.1.1 Runway Facilities ....................................................................................5-3 5.1.2 Activity History .........................................................................................5-4 5.1.3 Current Capacity .....................................................................................5-5 5.1.4 Planned Capacity ....................................................................................5-7 5.1.5 Potential Capacity ...................................................................................5-8 5.2 Region of Waterloo International Airport........................................................5-10 5.2.1 Runway Facilities ..................................................................................5-11 5.2.2 Activity History .......................................................................................5-12 5.2.3 Current Capacity ...................................................................................5-13 5.2.4 Planned Capacity ..................................................................................5-14 5.2.5 Potential Capacity .................................................................................5-14 5.3 Toronto City Centre Airport ................................................................................5-16 5.3.1 Runway Facilities ..................................................................................5-18 5.3.2 Activity History .......................................................................................5-18 5.3.3 Current Capacity ...................................................................................5-20 5.3.4 Planned Capacity ..................................................................................5-22 5.3.5 Potential Capacity .................................................................................5-22 5.4 Toronto Buttonville Municipal Airport..............................................................5-25 5.4.1 Runway Facilities ..................................................................................5-27 5.4.2 Activity History .......................................................................................5-27 5.4.3 Current Capacity ...................................................................................5-28 5.4.4 Planned Capacity ..................................................................................5-28 5.4.5 Potential Capacity .................................................................................5-29 5.5 Oshawa Municipal Airport ...................................................................................5-29 5.5.1 Runway Facilities ..................................................................................5-31 5.5.2 Activity History .......................................................................................5-31 5.5.3 Current Capacity ...................................................................................5-32 5.5.4 Planned Capacity ..................................................................................5-33 5.5.5 Potential Capacity .................................................................................5-33 5.6 Peterborough Municipal Airport........................................................................5-34 5.6.1 Runway Facilities ..................................................................................5-35 5.6.2 Activity History .......................................................................................5-36 5.6.3 Current Capacity ...................................................................................5-36 5.6.4 Planned Capacity