ST. MARY’S AIRPORT PLANNING AND RSA PRACTICABILITY STUDY Project Number Z605630000 AIP Number 3-02-0017-XXX-201X AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST Prepared For: State of Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities Prepared By: HDL Engineering Consultants, LLC 3335 Arctic Boulevard Anchorage, Alaska 99503 August 2018 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Population ........................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Demographic Characteristics ..................................................................... 4 3.0 Geographic Attributes ........................................................................................ 4 3.1 Air Freight Hub ........................................................................................... 5 3.2 River Freight Hub ....................................................................................... 7 4.0 Economic Characteristics.................................................................................. 7 5.0 Aviation Activity ................................................................................................. 8 6.0 Aircraft Operations ............................................................................................. 9 7.0 Passenger Enplanements ................................................................................ 11 8.0 Air Cargo ........................................................................................................... 12 8.1 Bypass mail ............................................................................................. 13 8.2 Freight ...................................................................................................... 15 9.0 Factors Affecting Operations .......................................................................... 16 9.1 Jet Aircraft with Gravel Kits ...................................................................... 16 9.2 Aging DC-6 fleet ...................................................................................... 17 9.3 Runway Length ........................................................................................ 17 9.4 Runway Surfacing .................................................................................... 19 9.5 Forecast Scenario: Gravel Runway 17/35 ............................................... 19 9.6 Alternative Forecast Scenario: Paved Runway 17/35 .............................. 22 9.7 Comparison to Other Forecasts ............................................................... 24 10.0 Critical Aircraft, AAC, and ADG ....................................................................... 25 10.1 Required Length for Runway 17/35 ......................................................... 26 10.1.1 Minimum amount of fuel carried .............................................................. 27 10.1.2 Reported Payload .................................................................................... 27 10.2 Required Length for Runway 06/24 ......................................................... 30 11.0 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 32 Appendix A: Inventory and Description of Existing Facilities .................................. 1 Appendix B: Aviation System Plan Resources .......................................................... 1 Appendix C: Air Carrier/Airport User Interviews and Phone Logs ........................... 1 Appendix D: Air Carrier/Airport User Survey Responses .......................................... 1 Appendix E: Population and Socioeconomic Information ........................................ 1 Appendix F: Detailed Aviation Activity Tables ........................................................... 1 Appendix G: Detailed Aviation Forecasts ................................................................... 1 i Aviation Forecast ADOT&PF St. Mary’s Airport Figures Figure 1: Project Location ............................................................................................... 1 Figure 2: 2017 Bypass Mail Volume to and from St. Mary's Airport ................................ 5 Figure 3: Freight Leaving St. Mary's .............................................................................. 16 Figure 3: Runway 17/35 length based on AC 150/5324-4B Figure 3.1 90% useful load ................................................................................................................ 29 Figure 4: Runway 6/24 Required Length based on AC150/5325-4B Figure 2-1 ........... 31 Tables Table 1: Historical and Projected Population Data, St. Mary’s, Alaska ........................... 4 Table 2: Airports Within 100 Miles of St. Mary’s .............................................................. 6 Table 3: Reporting Air Carriers ........................................................................................ 9 Table 4: Annual Operations by Design Group, 2017 ..................................................... 10 Table 5: Destinations for Passengers Leaving St. Mary's ............................................. 12 Table 6: Historical and Forecast Enplanements, KSM .................................................. 12 Table 7: St. Mary’s Airport Total Mail Summary, 2002-2017 ......................................... 14 Table 8: St. Mary’s Annual Freight, 2002-2017 ............................................................. 15 Table 9: Possible DC-6 Replacement Aircraft ............................................................... 17 Table 10: KSM Runway Length Requirements For a Selection of Operating Aircraft ............................................................................................................ 19 Table 11: Aviation Forecast Gravel Runway ................................................................. 21 Table 12: Aviation Forecast Paved Runway .................................................................. 23 Table 13: Airport Forecast Comparisons (Operations per Year) ................................... 24 Table 14: Critical Aircraft ............................................................................................... 25 Table 15: Critical Aircraft for Planning Purposes ........................................................... 26 August 2018 Aviation Forecast ADOT&PF St. Mary’s Airport Abbreviations AAC ........................................................................................ Aircraft Approach Category AASP .................................................................................... Alaska Aviation System Plan AC .......................................................................................................... Advisory Circular ACC .................................................................................... Alaska Commercial Company ADG .............................................................................................. Airplane Design Group ADOL ......................................Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development AF........................................................................................................... Aviation Forecast ALP ..................................................................................................... Airport Layout Plan ARC .............................................................................................. Airport Reference Code AVEC ......................................................................... Alaska Village Electric Cooperative AWOS .............................................................. Automated Weather Observation System Boreal ............................................................................................... Boreal Fisheries, Inc. BTS ............................................................................ Bureau of Transportation Statistics CDP .......................................................................................... Census Designated Place CONUS ..................................................................................... Contiguous United States DMM ............................................................................................... Domestic Mail Manual DOT&PF ................... State of Alaska, Department of Transportation and Public Facilities FAA .................................................................................. Federal Aviation Administration Fishpeople ......................................................................................... Fishpeople Seafood GA ........................................................................................................... General Aviation GRA ........................................................................................... Grey Relational Analysis IFR ................................................................................................Instrument Flight Rules ILS .......................................................................................... Instrument Landing System KSM ....................................................................................................... St. Mary’s Airport Kwikpak ........................................................................................ Kwikpak Fisheries, LLC Lynden .................................................................................................