Air freight transport A strategic modelling approach on a global scale GEORGIOS TZIMOURTOS Master Thesis May 2015 Air freight Transport A strategic modelling approach on a global scale By Georgios Tzimourtos Student number: 4185269 E-mail: [email protected] in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics at the Delft University of Technology, Thesis committee: Prof.dr.ir. L.A. Tavasszy – TLO/TPM Dr. Ron van Duin (J.H.R.) – TLO/TPM Dr. Milan Janic – CiTG Dr. B.F. (Bruno) Santos – ATO/L&R An electronic version of this thesis is available at http://repository.tudelft.nl/. Cover photo credits: Deutsche Lufthansa AG Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Problem statement ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Research question and objectives ...................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Scope of this research ......................................................................................................................... 3 1.4 Approach and research methods ........................................................................................................ 4 1.5 Thesis structure ................................................................................................................................... 4 1.6 Contribution of this research .............................................................................................................. 5 Chapter 2: The Air Freight Industry .............................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 6 2.2 A Historical Overview .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 The Business of air freight ................................................................................................................... 8 The Air Cargo Logistics Chain and the Players Involved ........................................................................ 8 Types of Air Freight Carriers and their Business Models .................................................................... 10 2.4 The networks .................................................................................................................................... 12 2.5 The Fleet............................................................................................................................................ 13 Passenger aircraft ............................................................................................................................... 13 Combi aircraft ..................................................................................................................................... 14 Cargo aircraft, Freighters .................................................................................................................... 14 The aerospace industry players .......................................................................................................... 15 Aircraft loading equipment ................................................................................................................. 30 2.6 The Airports ...................................................................................................................................... 32 2.7 Costs and pricing ............................................................................................................................... 35 Chapter 3: Modelling Transport .................................................................................................................. 41 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 41 3.2 Modelling freight transport .............................................................................................................. 41 3.3 Categorization of models .................................................................................................................. 42 3.4 The four step methodology .............................................................................................................. 46 Trip Generation ................................................................................................................................... 47 Trip Distribution .................................................................................................................................. 51 Modal Split .......................................................................................................................................... 51 Network Assignment ........................................................................................................................... 56 ii 3.5 Modelling for air freight .................................................................................................................... 56 Chapter 4: Synthesis and Methodology ...................................................................................................... 58 4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 58 4.2 Conceptual framework ..................................................................................................................... 58 4.3 Step 1: Economic inter-activity - Trade flows OD matrix .................................................................. 61 4.4 Step 2: Mode choice (air/sea) ........................................................................................................... 63 4.5 Step 3: Service choice ....................................................................................................................... 70 4.6 Step 4: Route choice ......................................................................................................................... 71 4.7 Step 5: Network assignment and flows ............................................................................................ 76 Chapter 5: Results of the model and validation ......................................................................................... 78 5.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 78 5.2 Global level........................................................................................................................................ 79 5.3 Regional level: Africa ......................................................................................................................... 90 5.4 Regional level: Asia ........................................................................................................................... 93 5.5 Regional level: Europe ...................................................................................................................... 96 5.6 Regional level: Latin America ............................................................................................................ 99 5.7 Regional level: Middle East ............................................................................................................. 103 5.8 Regional level: North America ........................................................................................................ 105 5.9 Regional level: Oceania ................................................................................................................... 109 5.10 Sensitivity analysis ........................................................................................................................ 112 5.11 Validation of the results ................................................................................................................ 115 Chapter 6: Conclusions and recommendations ........................................................................................ 119 References ................................................................................................................................................ 121 Appendix A: Model results at an OD level ................................................................................................ 131 Africa ................................................................................................................................................. 131 Asia .................................................................................................................................................... 143 Europe ............................................................................................................................................... 155 Latin America .................................................................................................................................... 167 Middle East ......................................................................................................................................