ASSOCIATED PRESS/REED SAXON PRESS/REED ASSOCIATED Green Growth A U.S. Program for Controlling Climate Change and Expanding Job Opportunities Robert Pollin, Heidi Garrett-Peltier, James Heintz, and Bracken Hendricks September 2014 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG Green Growth A U.S. Program for Controlling Climate Change and Expanding Job Opportunities Robert Pollin, Heidi Garrett-Peltier, James Heintz, and Bracken Hendricks September 2014 Contents 1 Summary 9 Chapter 1: Introduction 37 Chapter 2: Prospects for energy efficiency 98 Chapter 3: Prospects for clean renewable energy 142 Chapter 4: Oil, coal, natural gas, and nuclear power 174 Chapter 5: Carbon dioxide emissions levels under alternative scenarios 198 Chapter 6: Employment effects of the clean energy investment framework 236 Chapter 7: Macroeconomic issues with clean energy investments 267 Chapter 8: Advancing a workable clean energy policy agenda 325 Appendices 326 Appendix 1: Public transportation and energy efficiency 334 Appendix 2: Auto fuel-economy standards and energy consumption 337 Appendix 3: Explanation of the EIA’s Extended Policies case 343 Appendix 4: Methodology for estimating the employment effects of alternative energy industry expenditures 368 Appendix 5: Estimating fiscal impacts of clean energy public policy programs 384 References 396 Index 404 Acknowledgments and About the authors Contents List of Tables 16 Table 1.1: Conversion factors in standard energy units 40 Table 2.1: Comparative energy use and emissions levels for the United States and other advanced economies 41 Table 2.2: Energy consumption in the United States by economic sector 43 Table 2.3: Energy consumption in buildings, 2010 and 2030 Reference case 47 Table 2.4: Main sources of energy-efficiency investments: ‘Technoeconomic potential’ Residential - electricity 48 Table 2.5: Main sources of energy-efficiency investments: ‘Technoeconomic potential’ Residential - natural gas 49 Table 2.6: Main sources of energy-efficiency investments: ‘Technoeconomic potential’ Commercial - electricity 50 Table 2.7: Main sources of energy-efficiency investments: ‘Technoeconomic potential’ Commercial - natural gas 54 Table 2.8: Prospects for energy efficiency in buildings: EIA 2030 Reference case vs. the National Academy of Science’s technoeconomic cases 64 Table 2.9: Sources of energy saving in U.S. pulp and paper industry 65 Table 2.10: Sources of energy saving in U.S. iron and steel industry 67 Table 2.11: Range of estimates of economic potential for energy-efficiency improvements in industry 68 Table 2.12: Overall costs of energy-efficiency investments in industry from 2011 through 2030 72 Table 2.13: Energy use by transportation mode 75 Table 2.14: Estimated retail-price increase, gasoline savings, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of advanced vehicles (relative to baseline-average gasoline vehicles, 2005 models) 79 Table 2.15: Overall costs to reduce transportation-sector energy consumption from 28 to 20 Q-BTUs in 2030 83 Table 2.16: Summary of efficiency investments needed to reduce total U.S. energy consumption from EIA 2030 Reference case of 104.3 Q-BTUs to 70 Q-BTUs in 2030 91 Table 2.17: Estimates of direct rebound effects from two recent survey papers 102 Table 3.1: U.S. renewable energy consumption by categories in 2010 Contents 104 Table 3.2: EIA Reference case projection of 2030 U.S. renewable energy consumption 106 Table 3.3: EIA Reference case projection of 2035 U.S. renewable energy consumption 110 Table 3.4: Alternative estimates for renewable energy generation 114 Table 3.5: Greenhouse gas emissions reductions for alternative biofuels and biomass energy sources 120 Table 3.6: 2035 projections for wind, solar, and geothermal energy supply in EIA Low-Cost Renewable Technology case 121 Table 3.7: Summary of clean renewable supply potential from 2030 through 2035 124 Table 3.8: Estimated average levelized costs of electricity from renewable energy sources 127 Table 3.9: Range for total system levelized costs for electricity from renewable energy sources 128 Table 3.10: Average levelized costs of renewables versus fossil fuels and nuclear 130 Table 3.11: Range for total system levelized costs for conventional electricity sources 131 Table 3.12: Total levelized costs for clean renewables in 2030 based on EIA Reference case cost figures 132 Table 3.13: Total levelized costs for renewables in 2030 based on EIA Low-Cost Renewable Technology case 133 Table 3.14: Total levelized costs for producing 15.4 Q-BTUs of electricity powered by a combination of coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy (2010 prices) 134 Table 3.15: Comparison of total levelized costs for generating 15.4 Q-BTUs of electricity through Alternative Renewable and Nonrenewable cases 135 Table 3.16: Renewable energy capital expenditures for electricity generation: Annual levelized costs and present values 137 Table 3.17: Capital expenditures for estimated clean renewable capacity expansion from 2010 through 2030 146 Table 4.1: Estimated U.S. overall oil demand in 2030 153 Table 4.2: Coal-fired electricity capacity: Alternative projections 154 Table 4.3: Coal-fired electricity consumption: Alternative projections 155 Table 4.4: Natural gas-fired electricity capacity: Alternative projections 156 Table 4.5: Natural gas-fired electricity consumption: Alternative projections 157 Table 4.6: Nuclear-powered electricity capacity: Alternative projections 158 Table 4.7: Nuclear-powered electricity consumption: Alternative projections Contents 161 Table 4.8: Electricity generation from all nonrenewable energy sources: Alternative projections 166 Table 4.9: Total levelized costs for electricity generation from alternative energy sources 177 Table 5.1: CO2 emissions levels from alternative fossil fuel energy sources 179 Table 5.2: Weighted averages of U.S. emissions for oil, coal, and natural gas 182 Table 5.3: Summary of investment requirements under 2030 PERI/CAP scenario 187 Table 5.4: Features of Aggressive Reference case for U.S. energy consumption in 2030 188 Table 5.5: Alternative U.S. energy consumption scenarios for 2030 191 Table 5.6: CO2 emissions generated by alternative U.S. energy scenarios 194 Table 5.7: 2030 side case 1: 100 percent fuel switch from coal to natural gas off of Aggressive Reference case assumptions 195 Table 5.8: 2030 side case 2: Natural gas partially replaces nuclear power under PERI/CAP case 196 Table 5.9: 2030 side case 3: Natural gas fully replaces nuclear power under PERI/CAP case 209 Table 6.1: Employment creation through energy-efficiency capital expenditures in buildings and industry 210 Table 6.2: Job creation through buildings and industry efficiency investments 211 Table 6.3: Job creation through renewable energy capital investments 212 Table 6.4: Job creation through renewable energy operations and maintenance expenditures 213 Table 6.5: Job creation through capital expenditures to produce a net expansion of 11.8 Q-BTUs of clean renewable energy 214 Table 6.6: Job creation through operations and maintenance of 15.4 Q-BTUs of clean renewable energy by 2030 to 2035 215 Table 6.7: Summary of job creation for achieving a 70 Q-BTU economy with 15.4 Q-BTUs of clean renewable energy by 2030 to 2035 216 Table 6.8: Job creation within nonrenewable energy sectors: New capital expenditures and operations and maintenance for coal, natural gas, nuclear power, and oil 218 Table 6.9: Net change in employment through transferring funds from nonrenewable to clean energy sector spending 226 Table 6.10: Occupations with large growth potential through green investments Contents 228 Table 6.11: Breakdown of job creation by formal educational credential levels 231 Table 6.12: Bioenergy operations and maintenance: Job creation breakdown by formal educational credential levels 232 Table 6.13: Bioenergy operations and maintenance: Occupations with large growth potential 240 Table 7.1: Comparison of alternative U.S. GDP growth forecasts under baseline and with cap-and-trade legislation 242 Table 7.2: Projected clean energy investments as share of U.S. economy 253 Table 7.3: Expenditure allocation for all ARRA clean energy appropriations from U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, January 2010 256 Table 7.4: Estimates of direct job creation through ARRA clean energy projects within the U.S. Department of Energy 258 Table 7.5: Estimate of total job creation on DOE-funded ARRA projects 262 Table 7.6: ARRA clean energy 1705 loan guarantee program: Recipients of guarantees from 2009 through 2013 273 Table 8.1: A clean energy policy agenda for achieving the U.S. 20-year CO2 emission reduction target 316 Table 8.2: Summary of average annual sources of revenues/net savings and expenditures from clean energy projects 326 Table A1.1: U.S. energy consumption in 2011 through alternative transportation modes 332 Table A1.2: Employment creation through investments in public transportation 332 Table A1.3: Employment creation through doubling public bus transportation availability in 20 years 334 Table A2.1: Age range for entire U.S. auto fleet in 2001 335 Table A2.2: Calculations for estimating the average fuel economy level for U.S. light-duty vehicles as of 2030 341 Table A3.1: Alternative U.S. energy consumption scenarios for 2030 including EIA’s extended policies case 342 Table A3.2: CO2 emissions generated by alternative U.S. energy scenarios 354 Table A4.1: Composition of energy industries using input-output model 364 Table A4.2: Change in U.S. output multipliers for alternative energy sectors, 1995-2007 365 Table A4.3: Possible impacts on employment from varying rates of GDP growth and labor productivity growth Contents 366 Table A4.4: U.S. average annual GDP growth and labor productivity growth over various time periods 373 Table A5.1: Federal and state green bank programs: Estimating annual program costs over 20 years 375 Table A5.2: Federal loan guarantee program for clean energy investments: Estimating annual costs for 20-year program 377 Table A5.3: Estimated 20-year public budgetary impacts through policies supporting $200 billion annual U.S.