Powerlink Queensland Transmission Annual Planning Report 2016 Please direct Transmission Annual Planning Report enquiries to: Stewart Bell Group Manager Strategy and Planning Investment and Planning Division Powerlink Queensland Telephone: (07) 3860 2374 Email: [email protected] Disclaimer: While care is taken in the preparation of the information in this report, and it is provided in good faith, Powerlink Queensland accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage that may be incurred by persons acting in reliance on this information or assumptions drawn from it. Contents Transmission Annual Planning Report 2016 Executive Summary _________________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 1. Introduction _________________________________________________________ 13 1.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________________ 14 1.2 Context of the Transmission Annual Planning Report _______________________________________ 14 1.3 Purpose of the Transmission Annual Planning Report _______________________________________ 15 1.4 Role of Powerlink Queensland ______________________________________________________________ 15 1.5 Overview of approach to asset management _______________________________________________ 16 1.6 Overview of planning responsibilities and processes ________________________________________ 16 1.6.1 Planning criteria and processes _______________________________________________________________ 16 1.6.2 Integrated planning of the shared network __________________________________________________ 17 1.6.3 Planning of connections ______________________________________________________________________ 18 1.6.4 Planning of interconnectors __________________________________________________________________ 19 1.7 Powerlink’s asset planning criteria ___________________________________________________________ 19 1.8 Stakeholder engagement ____________________________________________________________________ 20 1.8.1 Customer and consumer engagement_______________________________________________________20 1.8.2 Non‑network solutions ______________________________________________________________________20 1.8.3 Focus on continuous improvement _________________________________________________________22 2. Energy and demand projections __________________________________________ 23 2.1 Overview ___________________________________________________________________________________ 24 2.2 Customer consultation ______________________________________________________________________ 27 2.3 Demand forecast outlook ___________________________________________________________________ 28 2.3.1 Demand and energy terminology ____________________________________________________________28 2.3.2 Energy forecast _______________________________________________________________________________30 2.3.3 Summer maximum demand forecast ________________________________________________________32 2.3.4 Winter maximum demand forecast _________________________________________________________34 2.4 Zone forecasts ______________________________________________________________________________ 35 2.5 Daily and annual load profiles _______________________________________________________________ 43 3. Committed and commissioned network developments________________________ 45 3.1 Transmission network ______________________________________________________________________ 46 3.2 Committed and commissioned transmission projects _______________________________________ 46 4. Future network development ____________________________________________ 51 4.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________________ 52 4.1.1 Integrated approach to network development _____________________________________________53 4.1.2 Forecast capital expenditure _________________________________________________________________53 4.1.3 Forecast network limitations _________________________________________________________________54 4.2 Proposed network developments ___________________________________________________________ 55 4.2.1 Far North zone _______________________________________________________________________________55 4.2.2 Ross zone _____________________________________________________________________________________56 4.2.3 North zone ___________________________________________________________________________________60 4.2.4 Central West and Gladstone zones _________________________________________________________62 4.2.5 Wide Bay zone ________________________________________________________________________________66 4.2.6 South West zone ____________________________________________________________________________67 4.2.7 Moreton zone _________________________________________________________________________________68 4.2.8 Gold Coast zone______________________________________________________________________________ 71 4.3 Summary of forecast network limitations ___________________________________________________ 73 3 Contents 4.4 Consultations _______________________________________________________________________________ 74 4.4.1 Current consultations – proposed transmission investments ______________________________ 74 4.4.2 Future consultations – proposed transmission investments ________________________________75 4.4.3 Summary of forecast network limitations beyond the five‑year outlook period __________75 4.4.4 Connection point proposals _________________________________________________________________75 4.5 NTNDP alignment __________________________________________________________________________ 75 5. Network capability and performance ______________________________________ 77 5.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________________ 78 5.2 Existing and committed scheduled and transmission connected generation _________________ 79 5.3 Sample winter and summer power flows ____________________________________________________ 81 5.4 Transfer capability __________________________________________________________________________ 81 5.4.1 Location of grid sections _____________________________________________________________________ 81 5.4.2 Determining transfer capability ______________________________________________________________ 81 5.5 Grid section performance ___________________________________________________________________ 82 5.5.1 Far North Queensland grid section _________________________________________________________86 5.5.2 Central Queensland to North Queensland grid section ___________________________________87 5.5.3 Gladstone grid section _______________________________________________________________________89 5.5.4 Central Queensland to South Queensland grid section ____________________________________ 91 5.5.5 Surat grid section _____________________________________________________________________________93 5.5.6 South West Queensland grid section _______________________________________________________94 5.5.7 Tarong grid section ___________________________________________________________________________96 5.5.8 Gold Coast grid section ______________________________________________________________________98 5.5.9 QNI and Terranora Interconnector _______________________________________________________ 100 5.6 Zone performance _________________________________________________________________________ 101 5.6.1 Far North zone ______________________________________________________________________________101 5.6.2 Ross zone ___________________________________________________________________________________ 102 5.6.3 North zone __________________________________________________________________________________103 5.6.4 Central West zone _________________________________________________________________________ 104 5.6.5 Gladstone zone _____________________________________________________________________________ 105 5.6.6 Wide Bay zone ______________________________________________________________________________ 107 5.6.7 Surat zone ___________________________________________________________________________________ 108 5.6.8 Bulli zone ____________________________________________________________________________________ 109 5.6.9 South West zone ____________________________________________________________________________110 5.6.10 Moreton zone ________________________________________________________________________________ 112 5.6.11 Gold Coast zone_____________________________________________________________________________ 113 6. Strategic planning _____________________________________________________115 6.1 Background ________________________________________________________________________________ 116 6.2 Possible network options to meet reliability obligations for potential new loads ___________ 117 6.2.1 Bowen Basin coal mining area _______________________________________________________________ 117 6.2.2 Bowen Industrial Estate _____________________________________________________________________ 118 6.2.3 Galilee Basin coal mining area _______________________________________________________________ 118 6.2.4 Central Queensland to North Queensland grid section transfer limit ___________________ 119 6.2.5 Central West to Gladstone area reinforcement ___________________________________________120 6.2.6 Surat Basin north west area _________________________________________________________________121 4 Contents Transmission Annual Planning Report 2016 6.3 Possible reinvestment options initiated