Republic of Burundi Burundi Poverty Assessment June, 2016 GPV01 AFRICA 1 Contents Contents ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgement ......................................................................................................................... 9 Acronyms And Abbreviations ................................................................................................... 10 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 11 Chapter I – Country Context: Historical Review, Outlook And Projections ....................... 29 I. A History Of Violence Linked To Poor Economic Performance .......................................... 29 Ii. Recent Events And Macroeconomic Trends ......................................................................... 38 Iii. An Uncertain Future .............................................................................................................. 40 Chapter II – The Extent Of Poverty And Inequality............................................................... 42 I. Snapshot Of Consumption Poverty In 2013-14 ..................................................................... 43 Ii. Characteristics Of The Poor ................................................................................................... 49 Iii. The Level And Structure Of Inequality ................................................................................. 59 Chapter III – Evolution Of Households Living Conditions .................................................... 69 I. Poverty Trend Since 2006 ...................................................................................................... 69 Ii. Household Demographic Characteristics ............................................................................... 72 Iii. Human Capital Outcomes ...................................................................................................... 74 Iv. Household Living Conditions ................................................................................................ 79 V. Consequences Of Violence On Households Welfare ............................................................ 88 Chapter IV – Governance, Fragility And Persisting Poverty ................................................. 91 I. Institutional And Governance Quality ................................................................................... 91 Ii. Impact Of Weak Governance On Poverty And Welfare ..................................................... 101 Chapter V – Employment In Formal And Informal Economy ............................................ 104 I. A Snapshot Of Employment In Burundi .............................................................................. 104 Ii. Informal Non-Farming Enterprises ...................................................................................... 112 Iii. Employment Dynamics, 1998-2014 .................................................................................... 120 Chapter VI – Agricultural Situation In Burundi ................................................................... 129 I. Snapshot Of Agricultural Sector In Burundi’s Economy .................................................... 130 Ii. Food Production: Characteristics And Performances .......................................................... 136 Iii. Bottlenecks And Existing Constraints ................................................................................. 144 2 Chapter VII – Environmental Degradation, Climate Change, And Poverty ...................... 152 I. Change In Wealth Per Capita And Natural Capital Depletion ............................................ 152 Ii. Deforestation, Land Degradation And Poverty ................................................................... 154 Burundi’s Geographic Regions ................................................................................................ 161 References .................................................................................................................................. 163 Appendices ................................................................................................................................. 168 Appendix I – Poverty Estimation Data And Methodology ......................................................... 168 Appendix Ii – The Unconditional Quantile Regression Method ................................................ 176 Appendix Iii – Inefficiency On The Burundian Agriculture ...................................................... 179 3 List of Tables Table I.1: Selected economic indicators (averages 2005-14) for selected benchmark countries ................................. 34 Table I.2: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, Projections 2015-2018 ............................................................. 40 Table II.1: The Burundi households’ demographic structure in 2014 – Spatial location............................................. 49 Table II.2: The Burundi households’ demographic structure in 2014 – Poverty status. .............................................. 49 Table II.3: The Burundi households’ demographic structure in 2006 – Spatial location............................................. 50 Table II.4: The Burundi households’ demographic structure in 2006 – Vulnerability status. ..................................... 50 Table II.5: Poverty incidences for people living in households with disabled members – Spatial location ................ 52 Table II.6: Access to durable goods............................................................................................................................. 55 Table II.7: Head’s migration and poverty incidence.................................................................................................... 55 Table II.8: Head’s migration and number of poor (1) .................................................................................................... 55 Table II.9: Multivariate regression, select indicators for poverty and wellbeing, migrant/non-migrant HH ............... 57 Table II.10: Probability regression analysis (logit) for the correlates of migrations vs no migrations in 2014. .......... 57 Table II.11: Decomposition of inequality by household attributes .............................................................................. 62 Table III.1: Households’ demographic characteristics ................................................................................................ 73 Table III.2: Literacy (read and write in Kirundi or other languages) rate by geographical area (percentage) ............. 74 Table III.3: Household’s education structure............................................................................................................... 75 Table III.4: Health spending (total and per capita) ...................................................................................................... 78 Table III.5: Malnutrition by regions (percentage) ....................................................................................................... 78 Table III.6: Food insecurity by provinces (percentage) ............................................................................................... 79 Table III.7: Trends in assets ownership (percentage) .................................................................................................. 80 Table III.8: Trends in dwelling conditions and access to basic services (percentage) ................................................. 80 Table III.9: Trends in access to basic services (percentage) ........................................................................................ 81 Table III.10: Access to improved sanitations (percentage) .......................................................................................... 82 Table III.11: Energy sources used (percentage) .......................................................................................................... 82 Table III.12: Access to improved domestic waste and sewage disposal (percentage) ................................................. 83 Table III.13: Illness/injuries during last 4 weeks (percentage) .................................................................................... 86 Table III.14: Households’ consultation of health facility or traditional healer during last 4 weeks (percentage) ....... 87 Table III.15: Key reasons for not consulting health services while the person was sick or injured (percentage) ........ 87 Table V.1: Employment by Gender and Employment Status (Employment share by job category, 2014) ............... 107 Table V.2: Employment by Age Category and Employment Status (Employment share by job category, 2014) .... 108 Table V.3: Share of workers with a secondary job in and outside of agriculture (percentage) ................................. 109 Table V.4: Worker characteristics by employment category (percentage) ................................................................ 110 Table V.5: Employment by Type of Worker and Production Unit (Percentage of total workforce employed) ........ 112 Table V.6: Non-Farming Informal Employment by Age Group and Urban/Rural (percentage) ............................... 113 Table V.7: Non-Farming Informal Employment by Level of Education and Gender (Percentage) .......................... 114