Contents Foreword......................................................................................................................................5 Conference Summary ................................................................................................................7 Opening Remarks Datuk Dr. Haji Abdul Rahman Hasan .........................................................................................17 Keynote Address Senator Dato' Sri Abdul Wahid Omar .........................................................................................21 Papers Session 1: New Statistics for Better Surveillance and Policy Action Global Financial and Economic Crises: Lag in Statistics or Slow in Policy Actions? Per Nymand-Andersen ...............................................................................................................27 Statistics after the Financial Crisis: Response to New Data Demands and Data Gaps Dr. He Qi .....................................................................................................................................37 Strengthening Statistical Compilation and Usage of Relevant Statistics in Malaysia Abd. Latib Talib, Nur Hidaah Mahamad Rappek, Siti Rahmah Seh Omar and Nurul Naqiah Mansor .................................................................................................................47 Session 2(A): Innovation in Analysis and Statistics Compilation and Management of Labour Market Statistics for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics Kenneth W. Robertson and Dr. John L. Eltinge ..........................................................................59 Domestic Demand-Driven Growth: Analysis Perspective and Statistics Needed Dr. Yeah Kim Leng ......................................................................................................................75 Core Infl ation: The Malaysian Case Mohd Helmi Ramlee and Muhamad Shukri Abdul Rani ...........................................................101 Session 2(B): Leveraging on Statistical Methods and Scientifi c Approaches for Better Analysis An Overview on the Statistical Methods for Economic Research and Risk Assessment Dr. Lau Wee Yeap .....................................................................................................................127 Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy Dr. Sheng Songcheng ..............................................................................................................133 MyStats 2013 Proceedings 1 Measurement and Contribution of Total Factor Productivity to Economic Growth Dr. Rahmah Ismail and Dr. Noorasiah Sulaiman ......................................................................139 Estimating Malaysia’s Output Gap: Have We Closed the Gap? Dr. Chuah Lay Lian and Dr. Nur Ain Shahrier ...........................................................................153 Session 3(A): New Horizon for Financial and Economic Statistics Transcending the Traditional Approach through Satellite Accounts Zubaidah Ismail, Mazreha Ya’akub and K Megala Kumarran ..................................................179 Monitoring Shadow Banking and its Challenges: The Malaysian Experience Muhamad Amar Mohd Farid ....................................................................................................191 Session 3(B): Application of Technology in Transforming Malaysia’s Statistical Landscape Leveraging on Business Intelligence Tools for Micro- and Macro-Data Analysis and Research Tai Yoon Foong and Muhamad Kamal Firdaus Muhmad Foudzi ..............................................213 Addressing Statistical Gaps in a Dynamic Payment Environment Yee Chee May and Ravinder Kaur ...........................................................................................221 Location Based Statistics: Knowing Your Place Wan Razali Matsah ...................................................................................................................233 2 MyStats 2013 Proceedings MyStats 2013 Proceedings 3 4 MyStats 2013 Proceedings Foreword On 18 November 2013, Bank Negara and usage of statistics. The topics discussed Malaysia, in collaboration with the Department during MyStats 2013 include: (i) New Statistics of Statistics, Malaysia and Institut Statistik for Better Surveillance and Policy Action; Malaysia, hosted the Second National (ii) Innovation in Analysis and Statistics; Statistics Conference, MyStats 2013, at (iii) Leveraging on Statistical Methods and Sasana Kijang, Bank Negara Malaysia. The Scientifi c Approaches for Better Analysis; theme of the conference was “Promoting (iv) New Horizon for Financial and Economic Innovation in Economic and Financial Statistics Statistics; (v) Application of Technology in to Support Policy Making in a Dynamic Transforming Malaysia’s Statistical Landscape; Environment”. MyStats 2013, in comparison and (vi) Innovation in Statistics and Analysis for with the fi rst conference held in 2012, has Responsive Policy Action. attracted a larger number and wider range of participants, which include statistical Nineteen papers were presented and more compilers, statisticians, analysts, economists, than three hundred participants took part policy makers and academicians in Malaysia. in the conference. The Opening Remarks was delivered by Y.Bhg. Datuk Dr. Haji The key objective of MyStats is to provide a Abdul Rahman Hasan, Chief Statistician, platform for compilers and users of statistics Department of Statistics, Malaysia and the to share, discuss and highlight statistical Keynote Address was provided by YB Senator issues in analysis and policy formulation as Dato’ Sri Abdul Wahid Omar, Minister in the well as challenges in the compilation and Prime Minister’s Department, Malaysia. This communication of statistics. It also aims to conference volume is a collection of the achieve greater collaboration between the conference summary, Opening Remarks, compilers and users of statistics, particularly Keynote Address and the fi fteen papers in improving the compilation, communication presented during the conference. MyStats 2013 Proceedings 5 6 MyStats 2013 Proceedings Conference Summary The theme of the Second National Statistics imbalances is crucial. Second, the focus on Conference (MyStats 2013), “Promoting stability of individual institution is insuffi cient, Innovation in Economic and Financial given the extensive interconnectedness Statistics to Support Policy Making in a of the fi nancial system. As such, greater Dynamic Environment” is highly relevant in attention should be given towards preserving light of global developments in the past fi ve overall fi nancial stability. Finally, the crisis years. The lessons learned from every crisis underlined the international aspect of fi nancial prompt a rethink of current approaches to vulnerabilities and the risk of spillovers in the policy-making, and crucially, a re-evaluation current interconnected fi nancial environment. of the statistics used as the basis for policy Arising from these observations, he highlighted decisions. The 19 presentations, which were that statistics must be improved along four organised in fi ve sessions and one panel key dimensions: 1) coverage; 2) granularity; 3) session, focused on six main areas: cross-country comparability; and 4) timeliness. 1. New Statistics for Better Surveillance and Given the signifi cant implications arising from Policy Action; the interconnectedness between countries, 2. Innovation in Analysis and Statistics; Per Nymand-Andersen (European Central 3. Leveraging on Statistical Methods and Bank), in his paper “Global Financial and Scientifi c Approaches for Better Analysis; Economic Crises: Lag in Statistics or Slow 4. New Horizon for Financial and Economic in Policy Actions?” emphasised the need for Statistics; greater information sharing between countries. 5. Application of Technology in Transforming The fi nancial crisis has revealed the need to Malaysia’s Statistical Landscape; and re-assess the conceptual approach to risk 6. Innovation in Statistics and Analysis for and the statistics required from the fi nancial Responsive Policy Action. sector, by taking a complete economic and fi nancial system-wide perspective. He Session 1: New Statistics for Better emphasised the new challenges in managing Surveillance and Policy Action systemic risks, focusing on the macro- and micro-level statistics and the conceptual The fi rst session of the conference, entitled framework needed to ensure high quality, “New Statistics for Better Surveillance and timely and representative statistics. He Policy Action”, provided opportunity for presented the comprehensive response that participants to discuss the current challenges Europe has undertaken to safeguard the faced by global and domestic economy and European fi nancial system and the roadmap needs for new statistics and innovation in for establishing the European Banking Union. compilation to support analysis, surveillance Although lag in statistics was not the cause and policy responses. The Chairperson of the global fi nancial crisis, he pointed out of this session, Marzunisham Omar (Bank that good quality and independently produced Negara Malaysia), provided a policymaker’s statistics are crucial to ensure an accurate perspective with regard to the lessons learnt representation of current developments. In from the recent global fi nancial crisis. He this, he highlighted that continuous efforts are highlighted three key lessons: First, the crisis needed to safeguard statistics