The Pennsylvania State University The Graduate School AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE FACTORS THAT GOVERN SUCCESS FOR NEW SAFETY AND HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES IN THE MINING INDUSTRY AND THE EFFICACY OF THOSE FACTORS TO PREDICT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUCCESS FOR EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES A Dissertation in Energy and Mineral Engineering by Jacob L. Carr © 2019 Jacob L. Carr Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy December 2019 The dissertation of Jacob L. Carr was reviewed and approved* by the following: Jeffrey L. Kohler Professor of Mining Engineering Undergraduate Program Chair of Mining Engineering Dissertation Adviser Chair of Committee Shimin Liu Associate Professor of Energy and Mineral Engineering Sekhar Battacharyya Associate Professor of Mining Engineering Michael Pate Nationwide Insurance Associate Professor of Agricultural Safety and Health Mort D. Webster Professor of Energy Engineering Co-Director Initiative for Sustainable Electric Power Systems Associate Department Head for Graduate Education *Signatures are on file in the Graduate School. ii Abstract The mining industry faces many safety and health challenges, and these challenges are often addressed by the introduction of new technologies, many of which are introduced through legislative or regulatory mandates requiring the technology’s use. Many such mandates have been enacted, causing dramatic changes to how work is conducted. Despite these mandates, there are cases in which the intended safety or health benefit of introducing a new technology was not achieved, or worse, cases in which some unintended negative consequence was created by the introduction of a new technology. Given the weighty consequences these mandates can have, both in terms of economic impacts as well as impacts on the safety and health of miners, it is increasingly critical to ensure that the technologies being mandated will achieve their intended benefit without introducing unintended negative consequences. To that end, the goal of the research presented in this dissertation was to identify the factors that govern the success of new safety and health technologies in the mining industry and to develop guidance for the timely and effective introduction of new safety and health technologies through legislative or regulatory mandates. This goal was accomplished through an analysis of several case studies of mining safety and health technology introduction, including mandated as well as voluntarily adopted interventions. For each case study, the development and diffusion of the technology was examined and indications that the technology achieved either a successful or an unsuccessful outcome was identified. Causal tree analysis was then used to identify the root causes for each of these successful and unsuccessful outcomes. The root causes identified for unsuccessful outcomes include, among other factors, the effect of biases on decisions made by researchers, regulators, and legislators. The analysis shows that these root causes lead to consequences including the failure of interventions to deliver their intended safety or health benefit or for new interventions to introduce unintended negative safety consequences. Using these root causes, a bowtie analysis was conducted to identify controls for preventing the enactment of legislative or regulatory mandates requiring the use of immature technologies and to mitigate the negative consequences of the enactment of such a mandate. These controls represent a set of guidelines that can be used to ensure that immature safety and health technologies are not introduced prematurely and that future mining safety and health regulations and legislation are as effective as possible at protecting the safety and health of miners. The implementation of these guidelines will result in more effective regulation, more impactful safety and health research, safer mines, and healthier miners. iii Table of Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. xi Acronyms and Abbreviations ...................................................................................................... xiv Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 Objectives and Specific Aims ......................................................................................................4 Scope of Work .............................................................................................................................5 Dissertation Format ......................................................................................................................6 Chapter 2: Background and Survey of Pertinent Literature.............................................................8 2.1 The Economics of Technological Change .............................................................................8 2.2 The Effect of Policy on Technological Change ...................................................................11 2.3 The Assessment of Environmental Control Technologies ...................................................12 2.4 The Assessment of Technology Readiness ..........................................................................13 Chapter 3: Methodology ................................................................................................................16 3.1 Overall Research Approach .................................................................................................16 3.2 Data Compilation and Consultation with Subject Matter Experts .......................................18 3.3 Identification of Factors that Influence the Success of New Safety and Health Technologies ..............................................................................................................................19 3.4 Development of Strategies to Improve the Likelihood of Success for New Safety and Health Technology Mandates .............................................................................................20 Chapter 4: Case Studies of Safety And Health Technology Introduction to the Mining Industry ..........................................................................................................................................24 4.1 Safety Interventions .............................................................................................................25 4.1.1: Case 1: Refuge Alternatives for Use in Underground Coal Mines..............................25 4.1.2 Case 2: Self-Contained Self-Rescuers ..........................................................................37 4.1.3 Case 3: Primary Communications and Tracking Systems ............................................48 iv 4.1.4 Case 4: Proximity Detection Systems for Continuous Mining Machines ....................68 4.1.5 Case 5: LED Cap Lamps...............................................................................................72 4.2 Health Interventions .............................................................................................................81 4.2.1 Noise Controls and Noise Exposure Regulations .........................................................82 4.2.2 Case 6: Noise Controls for Continuous Mining Machines ...........................................88 4.2.3 Case 7: Noise Controls for Roof Bolting Machines .....................................................96 Chapter 5: Causal Tree Analyses .................................................................................................101 5.1 Causal Tree Analyses for Safety Interventions ..................................................................103 5.1.1 Causal Tree Analysis for Case 1: Refuge Alternatives ...............................................103 5.1.2 Causal Tree Analysis for Case 2: Self-Contained Self-Rescuers ...............................118 5.1.3 Causal Tree Analysis for Case 3: Primary Communications and Tracking Systems ................................................................................................................................126 5.1.4 Causal Tree Analysis for Case 4: Proximity Detection Systems ................................141 5.1.5 Causal Tree Analysis for Case 5: LED Cap Lamps ....................................................144 5.2 Causal Tree Analyses for Health Interventions .................................................................146 5.2.1 Causal Tree Analysis for Noise Controls for Case 6: Continuous Mining Machines ..............................................................................................................................146 5.2.2 Causal Tree Analysis for Noise Controls for Case 7: Roof Bolting Machines ..........151 5.3 Generalization of Causal Tree Analysis Results ................................................................155 Chapter 6: Bowtie Analysis of Mandates for Immature Safety and Health Technologies ..........164 6.1 Threats and Outcomes Associated with the Enactment of a Mandate for an Immature Safety or Health Technology ...................................................................................165 6.2 Overview of Bowtie Analysis ............................................................................................169