MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Speculation on Egyptian Cross-Border Military Deployment OE Watch Commentary: Critics of the Egyptian military call it a paper tiger, a bloated bureaucracy spending extravagantly on modern weaponry for political rather than military gain. They point to the seemingly never-ending insurgency in the Sinai as a prime example of the military’s shortcomings. Supporters of the Egyptian government see things differently, and the start of 2020 witnessed a surge of nationalist pride and fervor in the Egyptian press, following large-scale military displays (“Qader 2020”) and the opening of “the largest military base on the Red Sea” in Berenice (Baranis), just over 150 miles from the Saudi port of Yanbu across the Red Sea. The area has served as a port since at least the Hellenistic period and includes a promontory jutting east toward the Saudi coast, called Ras Banas (Cape Banas); it also has an airport that has been used by the Egyptian Air Force since the presidency of Abdel Nasser in the 1960s. The first excerpted passage argues that the Berenice base signals a shift in Egypt’s strategic priorities, away from Israel and toward viewing Islamist movements and their backers, most notably Turkey, as the key strategic threat. The author argues that the new base will in part serve to make it more difficult to implement the agreement by which Sudan was to lease a Red Sea island to Turkey. An infamous Saudi Arabian insider, who tweets critically from inside the Saudi royal family under the handle @mujtahidd, claims that the Berenice base was in fact planned by UAE leader Mohammed bin Zayed and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi years ago, primarily to base a rapid deployment force that can be mobilized a short distance across the Red Sea to secure Mecca and Medina, in case “there is a failure in Saudi Arabia.” Whatever the case may be, Saudi and Emirati involvement in the base was highlighted by the presence of high-level delegations at the inauguration ceremony. The Berenice base opened shortly after the surprise deployment of Turkish military assets to back the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya. Turkish actions raised questions on whether Egypt might deploy forces of its own to eastern Libya. In Arabic- language media, a slew of politicians, analysts, anonymous sources and armchair strategists discussed scenarios by which the Egyptian military would respond to Turkish deployments, only in support of the GNA’s Red Sea Topographical Map. adversary, the Khalifa Haftar-led Libyan National Army (LNA). Some Source: Eric Gaba via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Red_Sea_topographic_map-en.svg, CC BY-SA reports claimed that the UAE sought to entice Egyptian military deployment to Libya “with a huge economic package, in addition to bearing all the costs of the battle there, while providing various other forms of support.” As the final accompanying passage notes, though, the Egyptian military establishment “has from the start been opposed to the idea of military participation in the crisis and sought to maintain ties with all parties” in Libya. In a move that has “brought great relief within the military establishment,” President Sisi recently reappointed Mahmoud Hegazy, former Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Armed Forces, to head the Libya file. Still, as the article suggests, there is some degree of disagreement within the Egyptian military about how to proceed in Libya, and continued Emirati encouragement for the Egyptian military to intervene directly may exacerbate these disagreements. End OE Watch Commentary (Winter) “… There are significant tensions within Egyptian institutions concerned with Libya …” OE Watch | March 2020 46 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Continued: Speculation on Egyptian Cross-Border Military Deployment ما حقيقة دور قاعدة برنيس العسكرية التي افتتحها السييس؟ :Source “What is the True Role of the Berenice Military Base Opened by Sisi?” Arabi21, 16 January 2019. https://tinyurl.com/wnf4mzs Mahmoud Gamal, a researcher on military affairs at the Egyptian Institute for Political and Strategic Studies, confirmed that the military base is not new as the regime claims, saying: “It is a military base that has merely been developed. It has been around for years, but since mid-2018 Sisi has worked to develop it, like the Mohammed Naguib military base, which Sisi opened in the west of the country as the largest military base in the Middle East, but which was also there before. The Egyptian regime, led by Sisi, is trying to create the appearance of military success by making the people think it is building new military bases. This is not true, what is happening is merely the development of existing rather than the construction of new bases.” He pointed out that “the location of those military bases, in the south and west of the country, reveal a transformation of Egyptian military doctrine in recent years, no longer considering Israel the historical enemy. Since 2013, the enemy has become political Islam, so we find it developing military bases, one towards Libya in the west and the other toward Sudan in the south, which was at the time was linked to the Bashir regime before its downfall.” Source: @Mujtahidd, Twitter, 20 January 2020. https://twitter.com/mujtahidd/status/1219170599597236224 The newly opened Egyptian Berenice base on the Red Sea has been ready for years, as part of a conspiracy between Sisi and bin Zayed. The real goal is Sisi’s control of the two holy mosques, if there is a failure in Saudi Arabia. It hosts a rapid intervention force and a plan is in place for air and sea landing in Jeddah and Yanbu on the way to Mecca and Medina. The plan was drawn up since Sisi’s arrival to power in coordination with Israel and bin Zayed. After the Turks landed on Sawakin Island in Sudan, Emirati-Israeli support doubled. Finally, bin Salman foolishly joined after bin Zayed convinced him to arm the region against Turkish presence and ally with Israel. فشل إمارايت بإقناع السييس ّبتدخل عسكري مبارش يف ليبيا :Source “Emirati Failure to Convince Sisi to Intervene Militarily in Libya,” al-Araby al-Jadid, 28 January 2020. https://tinyurl.com/rux3q5j According to the sources, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh linked the Egyptian administration’s approval of direct intervention in Libya with a huge economic package, in addition to bearing all the costs of the battle there, while providing various other forms of support. This was clearly rejected by the Egyptians, who stressed that they have provided all forms of logistical and military support for Haftar, across its borders, without directly intervening. The sources indicated that in January, official institutions in Abu Dhabi hosted a number of writers, thinkers and public figures who are influential in Egyptian decision-making, where they met with researchers and Emirati officials at various research centers, one of them affiliated with the UAE Ministry of Defense. Their discussions focused on the pressing need for a decisive end to the Libyan crisis and how this could only be achieved through the Egyptian army, which is the main stakeholder considering Libya is a neighboring country that directly affects Egyptian national security and interests. السييس يعيد حجازي إىل امللف الليبي ملواجهة غضب املؤسسة العسكرية :Source “Sisi Bring Hegazy Back to the Libya File to Calm Anger within the Military,” al-Araby al-Jadid, 8 January 2020. https://tinyurl.com/vvuv63a Private Egyptian sources revealed to al-Araby al-Jadid that Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi brought back former Egyptian Army Chief of Staff, General Mahmoud Hegazy, to supervise the Libyan file. He has been chairing the Egyptian committee focused on this before being removed in the wake of the Al-Wahat massacre in late 2017. According to sources that spoke to al-Araby al-Jadeed, there are significant tensions within Egyptian institutions concerned with Libya. There is a strong faction within the military that rejects any direct military intervention in Libya, and refuses to put the armed forces in a battle that may be a trap for them. The sources added that the media and digital campaign to encourage Egyptian-Turkish military confrontation on Libyan soil has angered Egyptian regime insiders focused on the Libyan file, saying that talking about war battles as a political endeavor or an internal political like the parliamentary elections, is unacceptable to Sisi’s aides who manage the media… The sources pointed out that the return of the experienced Hegazy to supervise the Libya file has brought great relief within the military establishment, which has from the start been opposed to the idea of military participation in the crisis and sought to maintain ties with all parties, including building strong relations with all tribes in the Libyan territories, hoping to position Egypt as an umbrella for all in a way that helps preserve Egyptian interests in Libya, which has about a million and a half Egyptian workers. OE Watch | March 2020 47.