Viking Link: UK Onshore Scheme Planning Appeal Core Document Reference 16.11 National Grid Network Options Assessment (NOA) 2017-18 Network Options Assessment 2017/18 UK electricity transmission JANUARY 2018 Network Options Assessment 2017/18 – January 2018 01 How to use this interactive document To help you find the information you need quickly and easily we have published NOA as an interactive document. Home A to Z This will take you to the contents page. You will find a link to the glossary You can click on the titles to navigate on each page. to a section. Hyperlinks Arrows Hyperlinks are highlighted in bold Click on the arrows to move throughout the report. You can click backwards or forwards a page. on them to access further information. Network Options Assessment 2017/18 – January 2018 02 For the past couple of years our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) publication has highlighted how we are in the midst of an energy revolution. Our Network Options Assessment (NOA) publication, along with our other System Operator (SO) publications, aims to help our industry ensure a secure, sustainable and affordable energy future. We publish the NOA as part of Investment decision our SO role. The NOA describes The SO considered the investment the major projects considered options proposed by the to meet the future needs in GB’s Transmission Owners. A couple electricity transmission system of the highlights are: as outlined in the Electricity Ten • Recommendation for investment Year Statement (ETYS) 2017, and of £21.6m in 2018/19 across recommends which investments 22 projects to potentially deliver in the year ahead would best projects worth almost £3.2bn. manage the capability of the GB • Analysis suggests a total transmission networks against interconnection capacity of the uncertainty of the future. 17.4 GW between GB and European markets by 2030 To be transparent in our processes would provide optimal benefit. and to ensure that the SO is impartial throughout, we follow The NOA represents a balance the NOA methodology, approved between asset investment and by Ofgem earlier in the year. This network management to achieve methodology sets out how we base the best use of bill payers’ money. our recommendations on the data and How the future energy landscape analysis of the 2017 FES and ETYS. could look is uncertain, and the SO’s recommendations are The news about SO separation there to help make sure the GB from the National Grid Transmission transmission network is fit for the Owner was announced earlier in the future. In producing this year’s NOA year. I do not foresee that this results we have listened to and acted on in significant change to the NOA your feedback. We welcome your itself although the changing roles and views on the changes we have responsibilities of different parties will made and in helping further shape be reflected in future methodologies. the publication to meet your needs. We are also planning how NOA can continue to evolve over the coming Julian Leslie years to maximise consumer benefit. Head of Network Capability, Electricity Network Options Assessment 2017/18 – January 2018 03 Contents Chapter one Chapter five Aim of the report .....................................................10 Investment recommendations .............................78 1.1 Introduction ................................................ 11 5.1 Introduction .................................................79 1.2 How the NOA fits in with the FES 5.2 Interpretation of the NOA outcomes .....81 and ETYS .....................................................12 5.3 NOA outcomes............................................83 1.3 What NOA can do .......................................13 5.4 Recommendation for each option .........95 1.4 What NOA cannot do .................................14 1.5 The NOA report methodology .................15 1.6 Navigating through the document .........16 1.7 What’s new? ................................................17 Chapter six 1.8 Stakeholder engagement and feedback ..............................................19 Interconnection analysis .....................................102 6.1 Introduction ...............................................103 6.2 Interconnection theory ...........................105 Chapter two 6.3 Current and potential interconnection ........................................106 6.4 Methodology .............................................107 Methodology ............................................................20 6.5 Outcome .................................................... 111 2.1 Introduction .................................................21 6.6 Summary ....................................................121 2.2 NOA process ...............................................22 2.3 Economic analysis .....................................25 2.4 The NOA Committee .................................32 2.5 How the NOA connects to Chapter seven the SWW process .......................................33 2.6 Interaction between the NOA results and the FES ....................................35 Stakeholder engagement ....................................122 2.7 Other options .............................................36 7.1 Introduction ...............................................123 7.2 Continuous development .......................124 7.3 Stakeholder engagement ......................125 Chapter three Chapter eight Boundary descriptions ..........................................38 3.1 Introduction .................................................39 3.2 Scotland and the Appendix A – Economic analysis results .........127 North of England region ...........................40 Appendix B – SWW Projects ...............................133 3.3 The South and East of England region ..52 8.1 Shetland Link ............................................133 3.4 Wales and West Midlands region ...........59 8.2 Orkney Link ...............................................135 8.3 Western Isles Link ....................................137 8.4 Eastern Network Reinforcement .........139 8.5 South East Network Reinforcement ....143 Chapter four Appendix C – List of four-letter codes ..............145 Appendix D – Meet the NOA team .....................148 Appendix E – Glossary .........................................149 Proposed options ...................................................62 Disclaimer ..............................................................153 4.1 Introduction .................................................63 4.2 Reinforcement options – Scotland and the North of England region ...........................64 4.3 Reinforcement options – the South and East of England region ......................72 4.4 Reinforcement options – Wales and West Midlands region ...........76 Network Options Assessment 2017/18 – January 2018 04 Executive summary Using the 2017 FES, ETYS 2017 and following the methodology approved by Ofgem, the System Operator (SO) recommends the options which the GB Transmission Owners (TOs) should invest in for the upcoming year. Below, we present a summary of the key points of the NOA 2017/18. Key points • The SO recommends investment • The NOA is about getting the right of £21.6m in 2018/19 across 22 decision, balancing potential constraint projects to maintain the option to costs against investment costs for an deliver projects worth almost £3.2bn. uncertain future. The NOA Committee This year’s investment will allow us to identified two reduced-build options manage the future capability of the that could create significant consumer GB transmission networks against the value. As the SO, we requested the uncertainty of the future. This will make TOs bring forward more reduced-build sure that the networks can continue options in the future. supporting the transition to the future energy landscape in an efficient, • We performed analysis of 76 different economical and coordinated way. reinforcement options in this NOA. Twenty-one options are given either • As the energy landscape is uncertain, a Stop or Do not start recommendation the SO must make sure that any as they are not optimal at this time. network investment is truly necessary. We also recommend 31 optimal options Our reviewed methodology was to be put on Hold where investment approved by Ofgem and included decisions could be made when there improvements to minimise the potential is greater certainty in the future. This for ‘false-positive’ recommendations. ensures that a recommendation for an The first improvement was the investment is made at the most efficient introduction of implied scenario time. Where the recommendation probabilities. Implied probabilities cannot be delayed any further, our calculate how probable we need to economic analysis assesses the cost believe a scenario is in order to make impact of not investing in this financial the same decision under a conventional year. Based on this analysis the SO decision-making process. The second recommends deferring the spend was the inception of a NOA Committee. of £8.6m on four options in 2018/19. This Committee, comprised of SO Table 0.1 is an overview of the representatives, provides scrutiny of the investment recommendations where results in a transparent and rigorous way. the decision must be made this year. Network Options Assessment 2017/18 – January 2018 05 Executive summary • This year the recommended investment the delay in the earliest in service dates spend is lower, primarily due to two of the Eastern Links combined with factors. Since the publication