Space Weather ± Physics and Effects Volker Bothmer and Ioannis A. Daglis Space Weather ± Physics and Effects Published in association with Praxis Publishing Chichester, UK Dr Volker Bothmer Dr Ioannis A. Daglis Institute for Astrophysics National Observatory of Athens University of GoÈttingen Athens GoÈ ttingen Greece Germany SPRINGER±PRAXIS BOOKS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES SUBJECT ADVISORY EDITOR: John Mason B.Sc., M.Sc., Ph.D. ISBN 10: 3-540-23907-3 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York ISBN 13: 978-3-540-23907-9 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York Springer is part of Springer-Science + Business Media (springer.com) Bibliographic information published by Die Deutsche Bibliothek Die Deutsche Bibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliogra®e; detailed bibliographic data are available from the Internet at http://dnb.ddb.de Library of Congress Control Number: 2006921904 Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers. # Praxis Publishing Ltd, Chichester, UK, 2007 Printed in Germany The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speci®c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: Jim Wilkie Project management: Originator Publishing Services, Gt Yarmouth, Norfolk, UK Printed on acid-free paper Contents Preface ............................................. xiii List of ®gures ........................................ xvii List of tables ......................................... xxvii List of abbreviations and acronyms ........................... xxix About the authors ......................................xxxiii List of contributors ..................................... xxxv 1 Introduction (Volker Bothmer and Ioannis Daglis) .............. 1 2 Space weather forecasting historically viewed through the lens of meteorology (George Siscoe) ............................ 5 2.1 Sibling sciences ................................. 5 2.2 Steps in the advance of environmental forecasting: the meteorological experience .......................... 6 2.3 Relevant analogies between terrestrial weather and space weather 10 2.4 Steps in the advance of space weather forecasting .......... 11 2.4.1 Stage 1: social impacts ....................... 11 2.4.2 Stage 2: visual observations. ................... 13 2.4.3 Stages 3 and 4: instrument observations and synoptic images ................................. 14 2.4.4 Stages 5 and 6: real-time predictions based on advection of static structures.......................... 17 2.4.5 Stage 7: subjective analysis .................... 19 2.4.6 Stage 8: objective space weather forecasting ......... 21 2.4.7 Stage 9: numerical space weather prediction ......... 23 vi Contents 2.4.8 Stage 10: storm tracking...................... 24 2.4.9 Critical supplementary step: university teaching of space weather forecating.......................... 25 2.5 Important comparative topics not covered . .............. 25 2.6 Summary ..................................... 26 2.7 Acknowledgements............................... 26 2.8 References .................................... 26 3 The Sun as the prime source of space weather (Volker Bothmer and Andrei Zhukov)..................................... 31 3.1 Introduction ± the Sun's energy output and variability ....... 31 3.2 Space weather effects of the quasi steady-state corona ....... 37 3.2.1 Slow and fast solar wind streams and their source regions 37 3.2.2 Solar wind impact on the Earth's magnetosphere ..... 40 3.2.3 Space storms due to co-rotating interaction regions and high-speed ¯ows ........................... 42 3.3 Space weather effects of the dynamic corona ............. 48 3.3.1 The ever changing photospheric magnetic ®eld ....... 48 3.3.2 The explosive corona ± coronal mass ejections and ¯ares 50 3.3.3 Interplanetary consequences of coronal mass ejections ± shocks and ICMEs ......................... 55 3.3.4 Examples of space storms driven by CMEs/ICMEs .... 58 3.3.5 Major SEP events, CME-driven shocks and radio-wave signatures ............................... 65 3.4 Space storms over the solar cycle ± times of occurrence and importance of solar, heliospheric and magnetospheric modulations 71 3.5 Solar observations and modeling for space weather forecasts . 80 3.5.1 Modeling the quasi steady-state corona and solar wind . 81 3.5.2 Forecasting coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle events ............................ 83 3.6 Acknowledgements............................... 90 3.7 References .................................... 92 4 The coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere (Christopher T. Russell) ............................... 103 4.1 Introduction ................................... 103 4.2 The bow shock and the magnetosheath . .............. 106 4.3 The size and shape of the magnetosphere. .............. 112 4.4 Reconnection .................................. 114 4.5 Dayside reconnection ............................. 117 4.6 Substorms .................................... 119 4.7 Storms ...................................... 124 4.8 Field-aligned currents ............................. 126 4.9 Summary ..................................... 129 4.10 Acknowledgements............................... 130 4.11 References .................................... 130 Contents vii 5 Major radiation environments in the heliosphere and their implications for interplanetary travel (Norma B. Crosby) .................... 131 5.1 Introduction ................................... 131 5.1.1 The heliosphere . .......................... 132 5.1.2 Cosmic rays.............................. 132 5.1.3 Other particle populations .................... 134 5.1.4 Summary................................ 135 5.2 Galactic cosmic rays . .......................... 136 5.2.1 The energy spectrum ........................ 137 5.2.2 Origin and acceleration mechanisms .............. 138 5.2.3 Summary................................ 141 5.3 Anomalous cosmic rays . .......................... 141 5.4 Solar energetic particles . .......................... 143 5.4.1 Impulsive and gradual events .................. 143 5.4.2 Solar proton events (empirical models and forecasting). 145 5.5 Energetic storm particles . .......................... 147 5.6 Corotating interaction regions ....................... 149 5.7 Planetary bow shocks. .......................... 150 5.8 Geomagnetically trapped particles ..................... 153 5.8.1 Earth's radiation belts ....................... 154 5.8.2 Radiation belts of other planets ................. 158 5.9 Interplanetary space weather and the implications .......... 159 5.9.1 Case study: mission to Mars scenario ............. 161 5.10 Summary ..................................... 164 5.11 Acknowledgements............................... 165 5.12 References .................................... 165 6 Radiation belts and ring current (Daniel N. Baker and Ioannis A. Daglis) 173 6.1 Introduction and historical context .................... 173 6.2 Radiation belt sources . .......................... 175 6.3 Radiation belt structure and dynamics.................. 179 6.4 Ring current structure, sources and formation............. 184 6.5 Ring current dynamics . .......................... 188 6.6 Synopsis ..................................... 195 6.7 References .................................... 196 7 Ionospheric response (Kristian Schlegel) ..................... 203 7.1 Introduction ................................... 203 7.2 Particle precipitation . .......................... 204 7.3 Conductivities and currents ......................... 206 7.4 Magnetic signatures on the ground and geomagnetic indices . 213 7.5 Aurorae...................................... 214 7.6 Consequences of electron density enhancements and ¯uctuations. 218 7.7 Solar-¯are and cosmic-ray related effects ................ 220 7.8 References .................................... 223 viii Contents 8 Solar effects in the middle and lower stratosphere and probable associa- tions with the troposphere (Karin Labitzke and Harry van Loon)..... 225 8.1 Introduction ................................... 225 8.2 Data and methods ............................... 227 8.3 Variability in the stratosphere ....................... 229 8.4 Solar in¯uences on the stratosphere and troposphere ........ 231 8.4.1 The stratosphere during the northern winter......... 231 8.4.2 The stratosphere during the northern summer........ 233 8.4.3 The troposphere ........................... 237 8.5 Models and mechanisms ........................... 240 8.6 Acknowledgements............................... 241 8.7 References .................................... 242 9 Space weather effects on communications (Louis J. Lanzerotti) ...... 247 9.1 Introduction ................................... 247 9.2 Early effects on wire-line telegraph communications ......... 248 9.3 Early effects on wireless communications . .............. 251 9.4 The beginning of the