China’s fight to control its history The Trump-Putin bromance AT&T and the future of TV Hands off the Bank of England OCTOBER 29TH–NOVEMBER 4TH 2016 Liberty moves north Canada’s example to the world Contents The Economist October 29th 2016 5 8 The world this week 33 The campaigns Heard on the trail 34 Third-party candidates Leaders Making a U-tahn 11 Canada’s example to the 35 Election brief: Education world Little changes Liberty moves north 36 Lexington 12 The Bank of England Meet Kamala Harris Hands off 12 The International Criminal Court The Americas Back it, join it 37 Venezuela Brexit and the City The financial-services industry 13 Business in America A lurch towards considers its future outside Vertical limit dictatorship the European Union, page 52. 14 Investment banks 38 Brazilian sport On the cover The rise of rugby Politicians who casually attack Canada is uniquely fortunate Too squid to fail the Bank of England’s 38 Nicaragua in many ways—but its integrity are playing with fire: Another term for Ortega liberalism and tolerance hold Letters leader, page 12. Economists lessons for other Western 40 Bello measure the fallout of Brexit, 16 On globalisation, countries: leader, page 11. Ciudad Juárez trembles page 53 Thailand, new drugs, Bill Why Canada is still at ease again Clinton, tourism with openness, pages 19-22. Europe’s new trade vetocracy: Middle East and Africa Charlemagne, page 51 Briefing 41 Off-grid solar power 19 Canada Africa unplugged The last liberals The Economist online 42 The International Criminal Court Daily analysis and opinion to Asia Exit South Africa supplement the print edition, plus 44 African economies audio and video, and a daily chart 23 India’s Muslims Economist.com An uncertain community The oil effect 44 Iraq E-mail: newsletters and 24 Bailing out Mongolia Tightening the noose mobile edition A wrong direction in the steppe Trump and Putin What explains Economist.com/email 45 Turkey’s intervention in the Republican nominee’s Print edition: available online by 25 Influence-peddling in Syria and Iraq fondness for Russia’s 7pm London time each Thursday South Korea Erdogan’s war game president? Page 31 Economist.com/print Gift horse 45 Medical marijuana in Audio edition: available online 25 Politics in the Maldives Israel to download each Friday Sibling rivalry The light-up nation Economist.com/audioedition 26 Pakistan’s business 46 Islamic State’s loss of climate Dabiq If you want it done right Apocalypse postponed 28 Banyan The isolation of South Europe Korea Volume 421Number 9013 47 The Calais “Jungle” End of an ugly affair Published since September 1843 China 48 Inequality and education to take part in "a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and 29 Politics Germany’s Sandernistas an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing The perils of history International Criminal Court our progress." 48 Regional inequality 30 Cars A tale of more than two South Africa and other Editorial offices in London and also: Parking rage cities countries are wrong to leave: Atlanta, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago, leader, page 12. A terrible Lima, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Nairobi, 49 Spanish politics New Delhi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, blow for the court and for a São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, United States Mariano Rajoy returns beleaguered country, page 42 Washington DC 31 Trump and Putin 49 Energy efficiency My brilliant friend Populism tastes best hot 32 From DC with love 50 The impact of Brexit Responding to Britain shoots Ireland, too cyber-attacks 51 Charlemagne 33 The Affordable Care Act The age of vetocracy Crunch time 1 Contents continues overleaf 6 Contents The Economist October 29th 2016 Britain Science and technology 52 Financial services 71 Bathymetry Brexit and the City In an octopus’s garden 53 Child refugees 72 The world’s weirdest Dental politics place? 53 The post-Brexit economy Topsy turvy Measuring the fallout 73 Cyber-security 54 Bagehot Crash testing How to be a good bastard 73 Schiaparelli’s end Flash, bang, wallop, what China The Communist Party is a picture Mapping the seabed International struggling to keep control 73 Dealing with autism Researchers have a plan to 55 Early childhood over its version of the past, First, treat the parents chart in detail the depths of page 29 development the ocean floor, page 71 Give me a child 74 Shark behaviour Waste not, want not Business Subscription service Books and arts For our full range of subscription offers, 57 AT&T and Time Warner including digital only or print and digital Angling for the future of 75 Eleanor Roosevelt combined visit Ahead of her time Economist.com/offers television You can subscribe or renew your subscription 58 Big tobacco 76 Europe’s single currency by mail, telephone or fax at the details below: France v Germany Telephone: +65 6534 5166 All fired up Facsimile: +65 6534 5066 59 Tata Group 76 Man Booker prize Web: Economist.com/offers Mistry’s ousting American victory E-mail: [email protected] Post: The Economist 59 Companies’ dark pasts 77 Mexican Modernism Subscription Centre, Ghosts in the machine Heroic painting Tanjong Pagar Post Office AT&T and Time Warner 78 Johnson PO Box 671 60 Brazilian business Singapore 910817 Why the takeover should be Lexicography unbound Out of the gloom Subscription for 1 year (51 issues)Print only blocked: leader, page 13. Australia A$425 Changes in the television 61 The sharing economy China CNY 2,300 Deflating Airbnb 80 Economic and financial Hong Kong & Macau HK$2,300 industry explain AT&T’s bid for India INR 7,500 Time Warner, but that does not 62 Schumpeter indicators Japan Yen 41,000 Statistics on 42 economies, Korea KRW 344,000 mean the deal makes sense, White-collar crime Malaysia RM 780 page 57 plus a closer look at doing New Zealand NZ$460 business Singapore & Brunei S$425 Taiwan NT$8,625 Finance and economics Thailand US$288 63 Investment banking Other countries Contact us as above Obituary Goldman Sachs reboots 82 Andrzej Wajda 64 Buttonwood Conscience-keeper Principal commercial offices: The election and the 25 St James’s Street, London sw1a 1hg markets Tel: +44 20 7830 7000 65 Digital money Rue de l’Athénée 32 1206 Geneva, Switzerland Known unknown Tel: +4122 566 2470 66 Asian deflation 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10017 Steel trap Tel: +1212 5410500 66 China’s growth 1301Cityplaza Four, Oddly consistent 12 Taikoo Wan Road, Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong Goldman Sachs It is a Tel: +852 2585 3888 company people love to 67 Clean energy v coal hate—but in one respect Other commercial offices: Fighting the carbs Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, Goldman Sachs is a model for 68 Free exchange Paris, San Francisco and Singapore its industry: leader, page 14. Financial stability Both revered and reviled, the bank is fighting to stay relevant, page 63 PEFC certified This copy of The Economist is printed on paper sourced from sustainably managed forests, recycled and controlled sources certified by PEFC PEFC/01-31-162 www.pefc.org © 2016 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Publisher: The Economist. Printed by Times Printers (in Singapore). M.C.I. (P) No.030/09/2016 PPS 677/11/2012(022861) 8 The world this week The Economist October 29th 2016 collection ofsignatures at an The chiefwhip ofthe African A committee ofJapan’s ruling Politics earlier stage ofthe referendum National Congress, South Liberal Democratic Party process had been fraudulent. Africa’s ruling party, called on proposed to allow party lead- The national assembly, which its entire leadership, including ers to serve fora maximum of the opposition controls, ac- President Jacob Zuma, to re- nine years instead ofsix. If cused the government of sign. He says that fraud charges approved, the rule-change conducting a coup d’état. being brought against the might allow Shinzo Abe to finance minister, Pravin Gord- remain in power until 2021. Donald Trump launched an han, are politically motivated. attackon Obamacare after the About 350 ofthe Chinese government reported that the Ethiopia withdrew its troops Communist Party’s senior cost ofan average health- from Somalia, where they had members held a four-day insurance plan sold through been fighting Islamist mil- meeting at which they discuss- government-run exchanges itants, blaming a cut in funding ed ways oftightening dis- will rise by 22%. The three- forthe mission by the EU. cipline within the ranks. It is month window forbuying likely that the secretive gath- In France the migrant camp at insurance on exchanges opens Israeli prosecutors charged 13 ering also debated plans for Calais was dismantled, with on November1st, spurring a people with inciting violence sweeping leadership changes asylum-seekers sent to pro- hefty rise in health bills for after a wedding video showed next year. President Xi Jinping cessing centres or to Britain, some voters a weekbefore the scenes ofright-wing Jews is certain to keep his job. where many want to end up. presidential election. mocking the death, last year, of Meanwhile, European Union a Palestinian toddler in an China accused America of officials met the Nigerian America’s election and tallying arson attackin the West Bank.