ISSN 16488024 General Jonas Þemaitis Lithuanian Military Academy Institute of International Relations and Political Science of the University of Vilnius STRATEGIC RESEARCH CENTER LITHUANIAN ANNUAL STRATEGIC REVIEW 2005 Vilnius 2006 Editorial Board Raimundas Lopata, Jûratë Novagrockienë, Gediminas Vitkus Reviewers for sections: Global International System and Lithuania, Changing European Security Space, and Security Issues in Lithuania. Prof., habil. dr. Algimantas Prazauskas, Professor of the School of Political Science and Diplomacy with the Kaunas Vytautas Magnus University Laimonas TalatKelpa, Director of the Foreign Policy Analysis and Planning Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Republic of Lithuania Reviewers for section Lithuanias Eastern Neighbours Doc. dr., Graþina Miniotaitë, Professor of the Political Science Department with the Lithuanian Military Academy Doc. dr., Lauras Bielinis, Associate Professor of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science with the University of Vilnius. Managing Editor: Gediminas Vitkus Make-up editor: Amy Elizabeth Jurkauskas Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2005, Vilnius: Lithuanian Military Academy, 2006. The main objective of this publication is to provide the readers with a wide-scale analysis and generalization of the changes, essential and significant, for the national security of Lithuania at internationalsystemic, regional and national levels. The book also aims to give maximum emphasis to the specificity of Lithuanian national security issues and comprehensively pre- senting them to a widely interested and concerned audience. © Authors of the articles, 2006 © Lithuanian Military Academy, 2006 CONTENTS Preface .........................................................................................................5 Global International System and Lithuania ............................. 7 The Transatlantic Rift: Ideological Roots and Implications for Central and Eastern Europe Algirdas Degutis ..........................................................................................9 Empires, the World Order and Small States Raimundas Lopata, Nortautas Statkus .........................................................27 Changing European Security Space ....................................... 53 Lithuanian-German Relations in the Context of Global Geopolitical Challenges at the Beginning of 21st Century Egidijus Motieka, Laurynas Kasèiûnas .......................................................55 In Search for the Optimal Regional Alliance: Strategic Partnership between Lithuania and Poland Tomas Janeliûnas, Kristina Baubinaitë ........................................................75 Debate in Lithuania on EU Expansion to East: the Case of Turkey Egdûnas Raèius ...........................................................................................93 Lithuanias Eastern Neighbours .............................................. 107 The Role of History in the Relationship between Lithuania and Russia Èeslovas Laurinavièius ................................................................................109 Economic Ties between Lithuania and Russia: National and Group Interests on the Global Background as Viewed in the Light of Positive Economics Dalia Ðiukðtienë ............................................................................................127 Ukraine: the Orange Revolution and its Aftermath Vladas Sirutavièius .....................................................................................145 National Security Issues in Lithuania....................................... 167 Lithuanian Deterrence Strategy Vaidotas Urbelis ..........................................................................................169 The Solution to the Problem of the KGB Reserve and/or National Security Interests Arvydas Anuauskas ...................................................................................195 5 Preface Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2005 is already the fourth publi- cation of the Strategic Research Center, functioning under the basis of a joined agreement between the Lithuanian Military Academy and the Institute of Inter- national Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University. As in the previo- us editions of 2002, 2003 and 2004, it presents an overall coverage of the changes essential and significant for the national security of Lithuania at international- systematic, regional and national levels. And on this basis of this, Lithuanian foreign and security policy is better projected and evaluated. It is no doubt that the academic nature of the publication, printed only once a year, makes it impossible to effectively react to all political actualities. Yet contained within this volume the readers of the Review will find a more com- prehensive and deeper analysis of processes that have been developing throug- hout 2005. The analysis is based on a sufficiently defined standpoint to treat concrete problems in compliance with the position of Lithuania in international and regional space. This publication discusses actual and sensitive problems, with reference to Lithuanian foreign and security policy, as a state of transatlantic relations. It also goes into depth about empire-debates in the US and around the world, the projection of the relations of Lithuania with both Germany and Poland, along with discussions related to the further enlargement of the EU. The researchers have also intently looked at the processes under way in the post-soviet space in Russia and Ukraine. Two of the studies are devoted to the actualities of rela- tions between Lithuania and Russia. The part of the Review devoted to natio- nal security problems discusses the study on the defendability of Lithuania, the last-year KGB reserve scandal in Lithuania, which has now been placed in a wider historical context and its repercussions for present-day society. Every year, in projecting the contents of the new Review, the Strategic Research Center demonstrates fruitful cooperation between two academic insti- tutions. The Strategic Research Center seeks to expand as much as possible the circle of its partners and grant researchers working in other institutions, who are concerned with similar problems, the possibility to express their views. The- refore, in this volume, the reader will find publications by the authors who represent not only the Lithuanian Military Academy or the Institute of Interna- tional Relations and Political Science of Vilnius University, but also the Lithua- nian Institute of Culture, Art and Philosophy, the Lithuanian History Institute, the Lithuanian Genocide and Resistance Research Center, and the Public Estab- lishment Strategic Studies Center. We would like to point out that the latter institution, though having a similar name with the publisher of this publication, is in fact an independent institution that has been functioning since 2004. This institution is more oriented towards applied activity and seeks to supply direct recommendations to the highest governance institutions, enterprises and orga- nizations of the Lithuanian State. We wish that our readers will take the time to get acquainted with new studies on the actualities of Lithuanian foreign and security policy. We would also like to point out to our readers that this and the previous volumes of the Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review are always available on the Internet web site of the Lithuanian Military Academy - http://www.lka.lt . Editorial Board Global International System and Lithuania 9 Algirdas Degutis* Lithuanian Institute of Culture, Philosophy and Art The Transatlantic Rift: Ideological Roots and Implications for Central and Eastern Europe** The recent transatlantic row is not merely about ways of dealing with specific issues of international concern such as the war in Iraq. The rise of anti-American sentiments in Europe seems to imply that there is a deeper rift in the transatlantic alliance. There are several explanations of this phenomenon. They are not mutually exclusive, since they can be subsumed under a more general explanation pointing to two different ideologies, those of individualism and collectivism, prevalent respective- ly on the western and the eastern side of the Atlantic (or possibly, the Dover strait). The difference is reflected in the policies both at the domestic and at the international level: the American distrust of big government contrasts sharply with the European statism, and the American reluctance to submit to supranational rule, contrasts with Europe- ans readiness to embrace post-national governance. The Central and East European countries have sided with America (and NATO) for reasons of security, and they have also sought a closer European integration for the reasons of economic growth. The two objectives might prove to be incompatible, unless Europe moves to the more individu- alist and dynamic Anglo-Saxon model of economic development as against that of social market favored by Germany and France. Introduction An observer of the international scene should have found it strange that after the horrible attacks of 9/11 the West has not closed its ranks in the face of the new threat. On the contrary, the two main partners of the Western world, the USA and Western Europe, have become increasingly divided over major issues of international concern and have drifted apart in their domestic and foreign policies. Some fundamental differences have emerged in their views on the desi- rable international order and on the