1 Article type: Research Article 2 3 4 Title: The expansion of intensive beef farming to the Brazilian Amazon 5 6 Authors: Petterson Valea,b, Holly Gibbsa,c, Ricardo Valea,b, Matthew Christiea, Eduardo Florenced, 7 Jacob Mungera, Derquiane Sabainie 8 9 Affiliations: 10 aCenter for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 11 1410 University Av., Madison, Wisconsin, 53705 12 bDepartment of Economics, University of São Paulo, Av. Bandeirantes, 3900, Ribeirão Preto, SP, 13 14040-905, Brazil 14 cDepartment of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 550 N. Park st., Madison, WI, 53706 15 dLaboratory of Soils, State University of Mato Grosso, Rod. MT 208, km 147, Alta Floresta, MT, 16 78580-000, Brazil 17 eFederal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Acre, Rua Coronel José Galdino, 495, 18 Rio Branco, AC, 69900-640, Brazil 19 20 Corresponding author: Petterson Vale 21 Address: Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin- 22 Madison, 1410 University Av., Madison, Wisconsin, 53705 23 Telephone: +1 608 6207983 24 E-mail: [email protected] 25 26 Keywords: feedlots, cattle, confinements, deforestation, intensification, productivity, Amazon, 27 Brazil 28 29 30 Acknowledgements 31 The authors are thankful to the informants and farmers who provided data for this research. Alcides Torres, 32 Ritaumaria Pereira, Paulo Barreto, Nathalie Walker, Francisco Beduschi, Raoni Rajão, Carlos Souza Jr., and 33 Kemel Kalif provided valuable feedback. Jens Engelman, Fanny Moffette, and Daniel Quinaud commented 34 on the manuscript. Scott Waldron, Jorge Funes, Shuo Li, Beichen Tian, Yu Wu, and Iliyas Nurseitov helped 35 with data sources. Elielton Pereira, Lúcio Mendes, and Raphael Szilagyi were assistants during field work. 36 Funding provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and Norwegian Agency for Development 37 Cooperation’s Department for Civil Society under the Norwegian Forest and Climate Initiative. All errors are 38 our own. 1 39 Abstract 40 Systems of intensive animal farming, such as the confinement of beef cattle, are widespread in the developed 41 world. Such practices have been under scrutiny since the 1960s for animal welfare and pollution issues. Here, 42 we document the expansion of intensive beef farming to the Brazilian Amazon in order to assess socio- 43 environmental implications. Using a combination of data mining and field surveys, we developed a 44 georeferenced dataset of 201 cattle confinements in the states of Mato Grosso (Cerrado and Amazon biomes), 45 Pará and Rondônia (Amazon biome), collected in 2017. In Mato Grosso, the country’s agribusiness 46 powerhouse, confinements are well established and account for ~20% of the cattle slaughter. But rapid 47 expansion in Pará and Rondônia remains largely unnoticed due to the absence of data since 2012. We used 48 the dataset to map cattle confinements across space and time. For the first time, (1) we document an 49 expansion to the Amazon biome; (2) we also show that confinements are associated with substantially higher 50 productivity rates, though intensified pasture-based systems can reach comparable yields; (3) that 51 confinements have crop production levels 2-3 times higher than comparable properties, both in- and out-of- 52 farm; and (4) that confinements tend to slow down on-property deforestation when compared to fattening 53 ranches in the Amazon biome, although off-property effects could be substantial and need further study. 54 Overall, the implications of intensive beef farming for animal welfare and local waste generation in Brazil 55 require attention as pressure to avoid deforestation continues to stimulate the practice. 2 56 1. Introduction 57 Ensuring food security to a rapidly growing human population while increasing environmental safeguards to 58 protect forests, biodiversity, and the climate is a central challenge for the present and coming decades. The 59 Brazilian part of the Amazon region encapsulates these concerns. It has become a major food producing area, 60 exporting soy and beef to global markets, while being under increased pressure to reduce the expansion of 61 livestock grazing and agricultural land. Raising the productivity of livestock systems is often encouraged as a 62 strategy that tackles both the food security and conservation objectives. In this paper, we show how highly 63 intensive forms of beef farming are on a rapid expansion from other states in Brazil toward the Amazon 64 region. We also explore the connections between systems of cattle confinement and an increase in land yields 65 and crop production, along with a decrease in on-property deforestation. 66 Systems of beef production are inevitably tied to food security. Indeed, terrestrial animals provided one third 67 of humanity’s daily protein intake of 27 g per capita in 2013 (Garnett et al., 2017, p. 18). While there are 68 marked differences among countries (Thornton, 2010), the global demand for meat is projected to reach 69 360/455 million tons by 2030/2050 (from 209 million in 2000), with a major growth in chicken and pig 70 consumption (Fiala, 2008; Thornton, 2010; Garnett et al., 2017, p. 98). In response to similar demands in 71 previous decades, systems of intensive animal farming grew at two to six times the rate of pasture-based and 72 mixed (crop-livestock, rain-fed) systems in the 1980s and early 1990s (Seré, Steinfeld and Groenewold, 1996, 73 p. 42). This led to a substantial expansion in what is known as industrial farming, landless farming, feedlots, 74 confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs, especially in the U.S.), or in Brazil, confinements. These 75 systems are characterized by: 1) very high animal density, often defined as at least 10 livestock units per 76 hectare; 2) rapid turnover; 3) reduced genetic variation; and 4) animals bred for high yield (Mennerat et al., 77 2010; Robinson et al., 2011). In Brazil, the confinement of cattle is also typically restricted to the last three 78 months of their life cycle (Merry and Soares-Filho, 2017). 79 The coupled land use dynamics of grazing areas and croplands also influence beef production patterns. The 80 appearance of the first feedlots in the U.S., for example, was an ingenious, productivity-enhancing solution to 81 the dissemination of cheap grains, especially corn, in the late 19th century (Hubbs, 2010; Purvis, 1998; Herath, 82 Weersink and Carpentier, 2005). Likewise, the transition to intensive beef farming in many countries today 83 can be linked to the availability of corn and soymeal (a by-product from soy widely used for animal feeding). 84 Census data from Brazil’s statistical agency (IBGE, 2012) confirm the link between on-property grain 85 production and the adoption of feedlots: cattle were 2.3 times more likely to be located on cropping- than on 86 ranching-dominated properties (SI-C). 87 Finally, environmental concerns around the conversion of land to make room for pasturelands are another 88 driver of change in the beef sector (Herrero et al., 2015). With livestock grazing dominated by extensive, 89 pasture-based ruminant systems (Herrero et al., 2015, p. 180) and occupying one quarter of the Earth’s ice- 90 free surface (FAO, 2009, p. 55), moving toward intensive production could substantially reduce its land 91 footprint (Bustamante et al., 2012; Cohn et al., 2014). This is especially true in Brazil, where cattle are the 92 most important driver of land conversion (Leite et al., 2012) and beef and dairy agroindustrial production 93 accounted for 63% of the cleared surface in the Amazon biome in 2000-2013 (Tyukavina et al., 2017). 94 Consequently, public policy and market-led approaches aiming to reduce deforestation have emphasized 95 Brazil’s livestock production practices (Thaler, 2017; Ceddia et al., 2014). For example, the Brazilian 96 government loaned US$ 3.9 billion in 2010-2018 to support the adoption of technologies to increase the 97 productivity of pastures (MAPA, 2018), and in 2015 the achievement of a ‘low carbon agriculture’ based on 98 improved pastures became one of Brazil’s pledges under the Paris climate agreement (MMA, 2015). In 2009, 99 a group of four large meatpacking groups in Brazil (JBS, Bertin, Marfrig, and Minerva) committed to 100 monitoring their cattle supply chains for deforestation in the Amazon (Gibbs et al., 2015). Additionally, a 3 101 variety of smaller initiatives by NGOs and research institutions provide incentives to encourage ranchers to 102 adopt land-saving technologies (Ermgassen et al., 2018). All of this incentivized a more efficient use of 103 pastures and at the same time drove the expansion of cattle confinements as systems where the use of land is 104 minimized. 105 As a result of pressure for livestock systems to increase yields, feedlots in Brazil grew by 442% in 1990-2017, 106 and by 55% in 2010-2013 alone (FNP, 2013, 2017), having outpaced the growth of cattle herds by 2.3 times 107 since 1990 (SI-C). Yet, despite this largescale change, there has been little study of the outcomes on 108 production or the environment. With the scale that confinements have already reached, an improved 109 understanding of the impacts on land yields, deforestation, and links to crop-producing areas, among many 110 other issues, is needed. 111 Here, we provide the first detailed characterization of intensive beef farming operations in a developing 112 country. We created a georeferenced dataset of 201 cattle confinements in the Cerrado and Amazon biomes 113 of Brazil by coupling key sources of property-level information to identify properties with a high propensity 114 to be cattle confinements. We then used field surveys to reach the most important cattle ranching areas in the 115 states of Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia. This dataset was used to document the expansion of confinement 116 systems and to assess its land use implications.