Q4 2011 www.businessmonitor.com MEXICO OIL & GAS REPORT INCLUDES BMI'S FORECASTS ISSN 1748-4111 Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. MEXICO OIL & GAS REPORT Q4 2011 INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2020 Part of BMI’s Industry Survey & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: October 2011 Business Monitor International © 2011 Business Monitor International. 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Mexico Oil & Gas Report Q4 2011 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2 Mexico Oil & Gas Report Q4 2011 CONTENTS Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... 7 SWOT Analysis .................................................................................................................. 9 Mexico Political SWOT.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Mexico Economic SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Mexico Business Environment SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Mexico Energy Market Overview .................................................................................... 12 Regional Energy Market Overview ................................................................................. 16 Oil Supply And Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 16 Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) ................................................................................................................................................. 19 Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) .................................................................................................................................................... 20 Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ......................................................................................................................................... 21 Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) .................................................................................................................................................... 23 Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) ....................................................................................................................................................... 23 Liquefied Natural Gas............................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) ........................................................................................................................................... 24 Business Environment Ratings ...................................................................................... 25 Latin America Region ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Composite Scores................................................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating .................................................................................................................................. 26 Upstream Scores .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 27 Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.................................................................................................................................... 27 Downstream Scores ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating ............................................................................................................................... 28 Business Environment .................................................................................................... 29 Legal Framework................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Infrastructure ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Labour Force ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Foreign Investment Policy ................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Tax Regime .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Security Risk ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 34 Industry Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................. 36 Oil And Gas Reserves ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 36 Oil Supply And Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 37 Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 LNG .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40 Refining And Oil Products Trade .............................................................................................................................................................................. 40 Revenues/Import Costs.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 41 Table: Mexico Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts ............................................................................................................................. 41 Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ..................................................................................................................................................................... 43 Oil and Gas Infrastructure ..............................................................................................