June 2016 Landing Together Pacific Amphibious Development and Implications for the U.S. Fleet PROJECT DIRECTOR Kathleen H. Hicks AUTHORS Kathleen H. Hicks Mark F. Cancian Andrew Metrick John Schaus A Report of the CSIS International Security Program About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, DC. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in November 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2016 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-4422-5961-4 (pb); 978-1-4422-5962-1 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org 301-459-3366 | www.rowman.com 8 Contents List of Tables and Figures ............................................................................................................................ 11 Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................................... 13 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 14 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 15 1 Demand for U.S. Amphibious Forces .................................................................................................. 18 Warfighting Requirements ...................................................................................................................... 18 COCOM Presence and Crisis Response Requirements ........................................................................... 19 2 Supply of U.S. Amphibious Forces ...................................................................................................... 25 The Amphibious Fleet: Historical Trends ................................................................................................ 25 Force Generation .................................................................................................................................... 28 Force Allocation ...................................................................................................................................... 30 The Amphibious Fleet of Today and Tomorrow ..................................................................................... 32 Alternative Platforms .............................................................................................................................. 35 Connectors .............................................................................................................................................. 38 Budget Constraints: Effects on Amphibious Capacity ............................................................................. 39 3 Pacific Allies and Partners: Amphibious Capabilities and Development ............................................ 41 Australia .................................................................................................................................................. 41 India ........................................................................................................................................................ 45 Japan ....................................................................................................................................................... 48 The Philippines ........................................................................................................................................ 52 Republic of Singapore ............................................................................................................................. 54 South Korea ............................................................................................................................................. 56 4 Assessment of U.S., Ally, and Partner Amphibious Capabilities ......................................................... 60 Assessing Amphibious Capability ............................................................................................................ 63 Country Assessments .............................................................................................................................. 66 Implications for the United States .......................................................................................................... 84 5 Meeting the Demands ........................................................................................................................ 87 Options for Process and Organizational Adjustments ............................................................................ 87 Options for Force Structure Changes ...................................................................................................... 90 6 Recommendations ............................................................................................................................ 104 Appendix 1. Categories of Amphibious Vessels ........................................................................................ 106 9 Appendix 2. Description of Cost-Analysis Tool ......................................................................................... 108 About the Authors .................................................................................................................................... 109 10 List of Tables and Figures Tables 3.1. Australian Amphibious Platforms 3.2. Indian Amphibious Platforms 3.3. Japanese Amphibious Platforms 3.4. Philippine Amphibious Platforms 3.5. Singaporean Amphibious Platforms 3.6. South Korean Amphibious Platforms 4.1. Assessment of USMC ARG/MEU 4.2. Assessment of USMC SP-MAGTF-CR 4.3. Assessment of Australian Amphibious Capability 4.4. Assessment of Indian Amphibious Capability 4.5. Assessment of Japan Self-Defense Force Amphibious Capability 4.6. Assessment of Philippine Amphibious Capability 4.7. Assessment of Singaporean Amphibious Capability 4.8. Assessment of Republic of Korea Amphibious Capability 5.1. Options for Force Structure Changes Figures 1.1. Distances between Key Locations in the Asia Pacific 1.2. MEU Crisis Responses in PACOM: 2000–2012 2.1. Amphibious Fleet Hulls and Tonnage: 1975–Present 2.2. Average Displacement per Ship: 1975–2015 2.3. Amphibious Force as a Percentage of Total Fleet: 1975–2015 2.4. Amphibious Ship Presence relative to COCOM Request: FY2008–2015 2.5. Amphibious Force and Lift Requirement: FY2016–2045 11 2.6. Amphibious Force as a Percentage of Total Fleet: FY2016–2045 4.1. Demand for U.S. Capabilities in Combined Operations— All Assessed Countries 4.2. Demand for U.S. Capabilities in Likely Combined Operations 5.1. Added Capability across the Range of Military Operations—L-Class Options 5.2. Added Capability across the Range of Military Operations—E/T-Class Options 12 Acknowledgments This study began under the direction of Dr. Maren Leed, senior adviser for the Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Study, and supported by her research team—Jaimie Hoskins, Alvaro Genie, Christine Wilkins, and Hyo Sung Joo. When Dr. Leed became special assistant to the chief of naval operations, the study lead transitioned to Dr. Kathleen Hicks and the current study team. The authors would like to thank Dr. Leed and the Brown Chair team for their significant early contributions to this report. Likewise, the authors are grateful for the invaluable research support provided by Amber O’Rourke, David Hookey, and Zachary White throughout the course of this study. The authors would also like to thank the following people for sharing their time and insights as the study unfolded: Colonel Anthony “Ché” Bolden, Colonel Peter Farnum, Eric Labs, Grant Newsham, Jonathan Geithner, Frank Hoffman, and numerous officials and officers from within the United States and in ally or partner nations. This study has been improved by insights from those noted here, but the content and recommendations presented—including any mistakes—remain solely those of the authors. Finally, the study team is grateful to Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), which sponsored this work seeing the value in growing general knowledge