Program & Book of Abstracts European Society for Population Economics 28th Annual Conference University of Minho, Braga, Portugal 18-21 June 2014 European Society for Population Economics 2014 PRESIDENT James Albrecht Georgetown University, United States of America [email protected] PRESIDENT-ELECT Erik Plug Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands [email protected] TREASURER Marco Caliendo University of Potsdam, Germany [email protected] SECRETARY Laura Hospido Bank of Spain, Spain [email protected] Coordinator Local Organizing Team 28Th ESPE Conference Priscila Ferreira University of Minho, Portugal [email protected] Welcome to the 28th ESPE annual conference at the University of Minho, Braga, Portugal It is with great joy and enthusiasm that we welcome you to Braga and to the University of Minho. In the spirit of Aldous Huxley, who suggested that “We can only love what we know”, we would like to introduce you to Braga and to the University of Minho, in the hope that those of you who haven't been here before come to love them as much as we do. Braga was founded by a Celtic tribe known as Bracari over 2000 years ago. The Romans named it Bracara Augusta in honour of Emperor Augustus in the year 15/16 BC and made it the capital of the newly-founded province Gallaecia. After being conquered and re-conquered several times, King Afonso VI of Leon offered it to his daughter Dona Teresa (she was his favourite), who became the mother of the first King of Portugal (D. Afonso Henriques). Between 1936 and 1976 Braga was the capital of the Minho Province. Its central location in the region granted the city the title “Heart of Minho”. Nowadays Braga is a District capital and is the third biggest city in Portugal with nearly 190k inhabitants. Although it is an ancient city with a small-town warmth, Braga’s culture and tradition live side by side with a growing technological industry and a young, dynamic university. Owing, in part, to its large student population the city has a variety of cultural offerings, active nightlife, modern infrastructures and is also a centre for outdoor adventure in the nearby National Park of Peneda-Gerês. Being a city with a university, Braga attracts many different people from all over the world. This fosters the city’s capacity to adapt and prosper and makes of Braga an ever ancient-youthful city. The University of Minho is now celebrating its 40th Anniversary! UMinho aims at being a University Without Walls, completely turned towards the surrounding socioeconomic environment. The level of interaction with the external community is extremely high and international activities are intense. The successful internationalisation of UMinho’s research is shown by an increasing number of publications and collaborative EU projects, by Doctoral and Masters’ programmes developed within the context of international partnerships and by the significant implantation of international knowledge networks in European, North-American and Iberian-American countries. The European Universities Association considered UMinho a case study of good practices at the European level. The Local Organizing Team is based at the Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management. The department is a renowned national centre of excellence with respect to both teaching and research. We are truly happy to host you at the University of Minho and Braga, and we do hope that the days of the 28th ESPE annual conference are inspired by the creative energy of the university and the city. May the intellectual debate be intense, but may this conference also be remembered by the good times you have spent with your friends - old and new! Welcome to Braga. Welcome to the Heart of Minho! The local organizing team 1 Important information Registration and Information Desks The Registration and Information Desks are located at the University of Minho Campus, in the foyer of CPII building (the Welcome Reception and Coffee Breaks are also held here), this building is visible from the main street and has the Statue of Prometheus in front of it. Conference ID All participants will receive a conference badge when they register. The badge must be worn at all times. Internet Access Open wireless internet connection is provided free of charge on campus. The network name is eduroam. Eduroam’s credentials for ESPE participants are the following: Username: espe@guest Password: espe In case of problems read the Wireless network (eduroam) configuration guide (provided at the Information Desk) Transport During the conference days ESPE 2014 participants can use the city bus network (TUB), free of charge, by showing the conference badge to the bus driver. Buses number: 2, 7, 12, 24, 31, 40, 41, 43, 66, 943 pass by the university. There are taxi stops in the train station, by UMinho, and in the city center (Largo de S. Francisco/Rua dos Chãos, map of Braga coordinates D4) Lost Property Please contact the Information Desk if you have lost or found any item. Emergency Services In an emergency, please call 112 free of charge. Should you need medical assistance Hospital de Braga is the district's main hospital and offers first aid at its emergency service. The Hospital is located just up the university (map of Braga coordinates L0 (not visible in the map)) Police In case of trouble, one Police Station is Located in Largo de S. Tiago n. 6 (map of Braga coordinates D5). Phone # +351 253 200 420 / +351 253 268 060 Tourist Information Office The office is located in the city centre, Av. Liberdade n. 1 (map of Braga coordinates E4). 2 Map of Braga 3 Map of the University of Minho Campus de Gualtar 4 CONTENTS Message from the Program Chair ................................................................................................. 7 Conference Program ..................................................................................................................... 8 Wednesday June 18 .................................................................................................................. 8 Thursday June 19....................................................................................................................... 8 Friday June 20 ........................................................................................................................... 9 Saturday June 21 ..................................................................................................................... 10 Program Notes and Index of Sessions ......................................................................................... 11 Thursday, June 19.................................................................................................................... 11 Keynote Address: Michele Tertilt (University of Mannheim) from 09:30 to 10:30 ............ 11 Parallel Sessions A from 11:00 to 13:00 .............................................................................. 11 Parallel Sessions B from 14:00 to 16:00 .............................................................................. 11 Parallel Sessions C from 16:30 to 18:30 .............................................................................. 11 Friday, June 20 ........................................................................................................................ 12 Parallel Sessions D from 09:00 to 11:00 .............................................................................. 12 Parallel Sessions E from 11:30 to 13:00 .............................................................................. 12 Keynote Address: Christian Dustmann (University College London) from 14:00 to 15:00 . 12 Parallel Sessions F from 15:30 to 17:00 .............................................................................. 12 Presidential Address: Jim Albrecht (Georgetown University) from 17:00 to 18:00 ............ 12 General Assembly from 18:00 to 18:30 .............................................................................. 12 Saturday, June 21 .................................................................................................................... 13 Parallel Sessions G from 09:30 to 11:00 .............................................................................. 13 Parallel Sessions H from 11:30 to 13:00 .............................................................................. 13 Detailed List of Sessions .............................................................................................................. 14 Parallel sessions A, June 19, 2014 11:00 to 13:00 ................................................................... 14 Parallel sessions B, June 19, 2014 14:00 to 16:00 ................................................................... 17 Parallel sessions C, June 19, 2014 16:30 to 18:30 ................................................................... 20 Parallel sessions D, June 20, 2014 9:00 to 11:00 .................................................................... 23 Parallel sessions E, June 20, 2014 11:30 to 13:00 ................................................................... 26 Parallel sessions F, June 20, 2014 15:30 to 17:00 ................................................................... 28 Parallel sessions G, June 21, 2014 9:30 to 11:00 .................................................................... 30 Parallel sessions H, June 21, 2014 11:30 to 13:00 .................................................................. 32 Book of Abstracts .......................................................................................................................